Tuesday, December 8, 2009

WINTER STORM UPDATE

***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE***....UPDATED @ 3:30 AM TUESDAY MORNING.....




A few changes are needed this morning.....First change was to delay the snow for points North of Chippewa,Dunn,and ST.Croix Counties,as Arctic air as remained locked in place a little longer that thought...The Arctic air should saturate rather fast later this morning...Still this will hinder snowfall amounts in them areas to around and inch or less by tonight.....Snowfall rates will be trended higher in said areas also with the colder air in place....So Am now going to up the total storm amounts....Here is where things get a little tricky...Am going to run with a widespread 8 to 10 inches of snow for all of my forecast area....Thinking is right now my far Southern areas will see 5 to 9 inches of snow.....The best moisture and forcing shows up later tonight into Wednesday...This will hold onto the FA longer than thought...Hence the reason why I upped the storm totals....The storm track has also shifted more Northwards..About 50 to 100 miles North...So the low pressure should by tracking over Southern WI towards the Milwaukee area....Also the storm system does deepen to around 975 MBS...So thinking about increasing winds speeds once again,however for now I will let them ride as they are...Will update the winds tonight if needed....So most areas will see near to blizzard conditions from late tonight through much of the day on Wednesday....Vis could drop to around zero at times....Looks like most of the heavy snow will start to fall later tonight and last right through a good part of Wednesday...No matter how we cut it slice it looks like a good dump of snow..the lower teens....Am still a little concerned about severe thunderstorms forming down South,if this does play out that will limited some moisture supply into the area,then we will be forced into lowering the storm totals....Do have time to figure that out this evening.........After this storm system moves Northeast of the area it will drag an Arctic cold front through night time lows will be tricky,I have under cut model guidance's with the forecasted snow amounts....Deep snow pack and clear nights should yield for lows well below zero..Should see a range of -5 to -10....With highs ranging from the single digits to around 12 or the lower teens....



Travel could become very difficult or impossible late Tuesday night through much of the day on Wednesday..If you plan to travel make sure you have a winter safety kit in your vehicle...If you plan on traveling make sure you let someone know when you leave point A and your ETA to point B....Have a cell phone to call for help if you should become stuck...Do not try to walk to get help,your vehicle will be your best shelter....This could be dangerous winter storm...Best advise we can give you only travel if it is an emergency....





***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE***...Updated at 7:30 PM



Looking at the latest computer model runs...Will time snow to start sooner than forecasted..Looking to start the snow mid morning Tuesday across my Southern areas then around noon in my Central areas then around 1 or 2 in my Northern areas.....Snow accumulations for Tuesday look to be around and inch maybe two....Winds will still not a problem,Tuesday night snow will become heavy at times...With winds increasing 10 to 20 MPH with higher gust...This will lead to blowing and drifting snow....Wednesday..Snow heavy at times,winds should be howling out of N/NW around 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH some of the wind prone areas could see wind gusts 40 to 45 MPH..This will lead to more blowing and drifting snow...Some areas could see near 0 vis with near to blizzard conditions Tuesday night through much of the day Wednesday....Will keep thinking the same.... Will run with a widespread 6 to 9 inches of snow through out the whole forecast area....Places that could see 9 to 12 inches or slightly more are in two different areas...First one would run through ST.Croix County over to Dunn County and into Chippewa County....Or South of line from New Richmond to Wheeler to around the Chippewa Falls area.....The second area likely to see 9 to 12 or slightly more inches are Barron,Polk,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties....Or points north of a line from Luck to Cumberland,Rice Lake over to Ladysmith.Most of the heavy snow should fall from late Tuesday night through around the noon hour on Wednesday...One big player on the forecasted snowfall amounts will be if any thunderstorms get going down South..If so this should rob some of the moisture flow Northwards,hence lowering the snowfall amounts....So some concerns still remain if severe thunderstorms will blow up.....

Travel could become very difficult or impossible late Tuesday night through much of the day on Wednesday..If you plan to travel make sure you have a winter safety kit in your vehicle...If you plan on traveling make sure you let someone know when you leave point A and your ETA to point B....Have a cell phone to call for help if you should become stuck...Do not try to walk to get help,your vehicle will be your best shelter....This could be dangerous winter storm...Best advise we can give you only travel if it is an emergency....

Temps will fall like a rock as an Arctic cold front slams through the area...Look for lows to be well below zero for the remainder of the work week,with highs in the single digits to around 10 or so..This trend will last through the weekend...So looks like winter is going to be around for sometime...