***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT***
We are watching what could be a severe weather event for a good chunk of the FA…. The greatest areas to see severe thunderstorms would be in the red shaded areas….This area has a chance at seeing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes….I have the same thinking as I did yesterday on the greatest threat areas…. Areas in the green shaded areas could see a few severe thunderstorms, however the threat level in that area is on the lower side..
A cold front is forecasted to work into the FA this could fire up showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into the early evening hours…Just like yesterday’s discussion everything is in place for a severe weather event to unfold across much of the area….Capping is going to be the main player on what will really happen later today…..700 MB temps are forecasted to soar to around the 12c mark…This was the main player in why I did not go with a mod to high risk of severe thunderstorms…Just ran with an overall risk with a greater risk area…The elevated activity this morning should clear out allowing for clearing skies SFC heating won’t take long to destabilize the atmosphere deep level moisture will keep streaming into the FA with depwoints forecasted to well into the 60s….SFC based Cape forecasted to from 3000 to 4000 J/KG this afternoon.. Forcing is not that great along the cold front. Lifted index still forecasted to from -4 to -6…Wind shear on the order of 45 to 50 KTS still look to be on track.. If cap does weaken this will allow for thunderstorms to fire up rather fast along or just ahead of the cold front…There will be no problem for this storms to become severe rather fast….The storms should easily get rooted in the boundary level…Once this occurs the threat of tornadoes will be at the highest, mainly early in the storms life stages..Thinking is this would happen in the Western and Northwestern part of the red shaded areas…. In the green shaded areas the main threat would be for damaging winds and hail..With a small chance of one or two tornadoes… reason I didn’t go with a higher risk in my Western Counties for severe weather is the cold front should be close if not past them areas…..Along with this is where it looks like the storm will fire and push into the Western part of the red shaded area, where then the storms really take off…. We will keep an eye on it to see if we need to adjust the outlook area, though as of right now it’s highly unlikely that will be needed…
Timing of storms formation 4 to 6 PM….. Storms should becoming lines or cluster by time they reach the Central areas of the red shaded area, hence the threat then would be mainly damaging winds and large hail…
***NOTICE***
All the above is all dependant on if the cap does indeed break or weaken enough…If the cap remains strong most of the FA should remain severe weather threat free…So by all means this event is not written in stone just yet…
