Thursday, June 2, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Warm and humid air returns to the FA for Friday...Showers and thunderstorms could form in the afternoon and some may be severe, However not likely as a strong cap looks to be in place…More on that later…

The weekend is a picture perfect weekend good weekend to enjoy the area lakes..Less humid but still warm…Next week temps look to be right around average. Though this is subject to change.


At 8AM Skies range from cloudy over in New Richmond to Sunny elsewhere’s … Temps range from the middle 40s up along Lake Superior to the lower to middle 50s…..Winds already gusting up to 20-22 MPH throughout much of the area….


Warm front moving towards the FA today may spark off some showers and thunderstorms, none of these storms are excepted to severe over the FA…The severe weather threat will be found over Western and Northwestern MN close to the cold front and triple point…Not really too thrilled about showers and thunderstorms in the FA for today or tonight for that matter….Most of the dynamics Will be found over Western/Northwestern MN..Will run with a slight chance do to some weak lifting along the warm front…Winds will pick up once again over the area winds could gusts up to 30 MPH today into tonight. Tomorrow is going to be a problematic day…..All indications point to a severe weather day…However looking at the 700MB temps this will squash the possibilities of that as 700 MB soars up to around 14c….Cape is forecasted to be from 2500 J/KG to 4000 J/KG… Dewpoints forecasted to be in upper 60s to lower 70s… Lifted Index from -4 to -6..PWS forecasted to be around 1.5”. Good wind shear is also in place… So if storms can form and push through the cape a severe weather event could unfold right over head…If this was to be the case.. Storms would fire along and just ahead of the cold front… Main areas would be East of a line from Central Douglas, Washburn, Barron, Dunn, and Pepin Counties timing if things stay on track would be between 4 and 5 PM….If storm do fire they would become severe rather fast before becoming linear this would allow for supper cells early in the stages…Main severe weather threat would damaging winds, along with some tornadoes , and some hail….This case is highly unlikely ATTM….Will update forecast if needed…

The weekend looks to dry with less humid conditions and cooler temps highs in the middle 70s should work just fine…. Next week is a real pain in the butt…Warm front is forecasted to lift back northwards towards the FA..Biggest question is where this front will setup shop….Some models push it North of us while others keep it just to our South… This will play havoc with temps…Temps could be in the middle to upper 80s if the warm front pushes North… Or in the upper 70 to lower 80s if it somewhat close…Last temps could be in the middle to upper 70s if front remain well South of the area…Thinking is to run with upper 70s to lower 80s for now…Most of the work week looks to be dry, however next cold front to visit the area should come in around the Wednesday/Thursday time frame….With that there would be a chance of showers and thunderstorms…Way too early to tell if any of those will be severe this far out in the game.

Notice there will be long term forecast as models are having hard time next week the long term models are even worse so will not waste time on it today.Though looks like we could be going back into a cooler than average period...from the 9th through 15 with wetter than average conditions.


TODAY… Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms… Highs upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT.. Mostly cloudy, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms …Lows 60..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs middle to upper 80s..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy with a small chance of showers and storms lows around 60. Winds becoming Southwest/West 5 to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY… Dry highs in the middle 70s with lows in the middle 50s to around 60.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…. Dry highs upper 70s to lower 80s, lows around 60.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY… Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Highs upper 70s to lower 80s lows around 60.