Forecast stands

Forecast stand as is......See no reason to change things....Still feel we will break out of these clouds, to give us a mostly sunny afternoon.....Going to keep the long range forecast as is also.....See below for the forecast......
Enjoy the less humid day today!

Afternoon update

This afternoon update….I thought about cutting temps back, as winds are still more South…The hot air is found way down South and Southwest  I don’t feel it will make here..Feel middle to upper 80s may be better….The map below shows this rather well…..Will leave temps as are, I sure won’t be shocked if we don’t hit the forecasted highs for today….Plus dewpoints are really climbing fast, this is not helping us warm up to fast…..As we are now hitting the warmest part of the day…. Peak warm period is between 2 PM and 4 PM….

So to sum it up I didn’t cut back on the temps, thought was there to do so…However wording above will cover this if we don’t hit our forecasted highs…..

Radar is showing showers and thunderstorms really taking off in MN….So that will be the case later this evening through the overnight hours….Showers and storm chances better than what was forecasted early…..Still not the greatest up from 20 % to about 40% now….Will keep watching radar trends….

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast concerns…..Really not to many…..Main story for today will be the high dewpoints, not so much the warm temps…There will be a small chance of showers and thunderstorms later tonight as a cold front pushes through….

Then temps drop a little, everyone will notice the drop is the humidity.

***Current conditions***

***SHORT TERM & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

A warm bubble of warm air as worked it’s way into the FA dewpoints have came up a little faster than thought, still that won’t play havoc on the forecast… A weak cold front out and low pressure out over the Dakotas is forecasted to push into the area during the overnight hours….About the only thing this is going to do is. Knock down the humidity levels and trim a few degrees off the temps from today….Today will run with temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s… Tomorrow temps shall be in the middle 80s as well as on Friday…..Another weak system moves in on Sat. this will knock the temps down into the lower 80s……Warm air returns to the area for Monday and the 4^th of July….May be a few showers and t-storms around on the 4^th, however looks dry for the most part, and for the fireworks all looks good…

***YOUR SHORT & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY….Mostly sunny warm and humid. Highs 88 to 93. Winds South around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT….Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67 to 70.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny less humid. Highs middle 80s.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Clear, lows lower 60s.

FRIDAY…. Sunny, highs in the middle 80s, lows lower 60s.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs lower 80s, lows lower to middle 60s.

SUNDAY…. Sunny with a few passing clouds, highs lower 80s, lows lower to middle 60s.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny, highs in the middle 80s, lows upper 60s with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

4 OF JULY… Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the morning, highs lower to middle 80s.

4 OF JULY EVENING…..Partly cloudy warm temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the fireworks displays throughout the area…

Below is the forecast map for this afternoon.

Below is the forecast map for tomorrow.

Below is the forecast map for Friday.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSION JULY 5^TH THROUGH  JULY 13^TH ***

We start this period dry on the 5^th….A weak system moves into the area on the 6^th bringing us a shot of showers and thunderstorms. This will hold through the early morning hours of the 7^th Another shot of showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the overnight hours of the 7^th  into the early morning hours of the 8^th…  Same setup happens for the overnight hours of the 8^th into the early morning hours of the 9^th On the 10^th we will see a stronger system move into the area this will bring more showers and thunderstorms on the 10^th and the 11^th  the 12^th low pressure is forecasted to move into Northern MN this will drag a cold front into the area with showers and thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon hours…Still could see some showers around on the 13^th…. As far as temps go……Temps are forecasted to run from the lower to middle 80s for highs and lows in the 60s….No big time or long lasting heat waves are seen….

Forecasted highs for Wed.

The map below is what we are forecasting for highs,note this does not show the heat index values.

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Enjoy the cool night tonight temps down into the 40s!!…..A much needed dry spell for the area……Temps warming backup…. Could we see any record temps? We will discuss all of this….

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 12:00 AM we find clear skies across the area…Temps in the in the lower  to middle 50s…Eau Claire and Menomonie still holding onto the lower 60s…..Dewpoints lower 50s…..Winds are NE light to calm…..

 ***FORECAST DISCUSSION SHORT TERM AND MIDDLE TERM***

The only concern I have through this whole time frame is how high to go with temps for Wednesday and Thursday…Tonight could see some areas of fog don’t feel it will be a big deal…..Nam is forecasting the 850 MB temps over my FA to range from 20 to 25…With 850 MB temps in Southwestern MN…This is where I do feel the hotter temps will be found with temps upper 90s to lower 100s…..Rest of MN and Western/Northwestern WI should see temps upper 80s to lower 90s……Looking at the daily  climatology for this week, esp. for Wednesday and Thursday…I find that the record high for Wed is 93 set back in 1971. The record high for Thur is 92 set back in 1961…… We may get dangerously close to these records…Will be able to have a better handle on this in Tuesday’s update, as there still is some disagreement in models…GFS keep the area a little cooler, so for now figure the best way was to blend both models to come with 86 to 92 forecasted temp range for both days…..Another side note that kept me from going higher with temps 1. SFC winds will be more South/Southeast, than Southwest that brings us warmer are….. 2. Dewpoints will be very high taken longer to heat the SFC temps…Nam forecasting dews in the 65 to 70 degree range….GFS have more 60 to 65 dews….Either way is will be humid….. Now if we can get more of a Southwesterly wind component and some drier air mixing into the area we could be dealing with higher temps……AS far as rainfall goes….Not going to happen this week. Next chance of rain looks to come in on Saturday and Sunday..With off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms to start July off… The 4^th of July appears to be looking good, Though looks be a very warm one…

So to sum it up dry, warm, and humid…Will be the main theme for this week…..

Forecast…

Tonight…. Clear with areas of fog, winds light NE…Lows 46 to 50.

Monday…… Sunny light South wind around 5 MPH, Highs 73 to 76.

Monday night….. Clear warmer Light Southeast wind around 4 to 8 MPH…..

Tuesday…. Sunny, highs around 80…Lows lower to middle 60s.

Wednesday….. Sunny and warm, highs 86 to 92. Lows 65 to 70.

Thursday….Sunny  and  warm, highs 86 to 92. Lows lower to middle 60s.

Friday… Sunny cooler, highs around 80 with lows in the lower 60s…

The weekend forecast..  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly at night and early mornings. Highs lower to middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s

Weather 4 You is back!!

edited to remove crap that shouldnt have been posted by Paul!




 thanks to Dirk for his help the last few days/nights in getting our computer system up and running.
Forecaster/Paul.

How much rain fell yesterday?

Most of Barron County was hit hard with very heavy rainfall yesterday....Parts of West Central and Southwestern Barron County was lucky to avoid the bullet...Northern Barron County was hit the hardest...4 to 5 inches was the general rule, however some areas picked up over 6 inches of rain....The city of Rice Lake, looked just like a lake, streets were flooding, cars were even reported to be floating......All this heavy rain followed a hailstorm that hit the same areas that picked up heavy rain....The rain held through all morning and well into the afternoon...Below you will see a few different radar est grabs....See ending times on radar....

This morning's hail storm

Was a very fun morning here at the office, didn't have to go chasing....We had a hail storm hit the area....Nickle size hail ....Ground was covered.....Some leaves have been shreaded off some trees....Along with the hail was very heavy rain...Up to 2 inches in most of Barron County....More on all that later today or tomorrow....More severe thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon, that is if we can get some SFC heating going......

Forecast dis for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast concerns will deal with the possibility of heavy rainfall for the rest of the work week and into the weekend, could also see some severe thunderstorms here and there…Will try to hash all this out…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 9:00 AM…Skies range from Mostly Cloudy to Partly Cloudy…..Temps in the 60s with dry dewpoints in the 40s through they are now in the upper 40s across my Western areas…..Winds South/Southeast from 6 to 13 MPH with some higher gust…

***SHORT TERM/MIDDLE FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THE 18TH***

For today…..Clouds have already taken over the area as a weak system is pushing through Southern MN. Radar is showing an area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the SW part of MN….This area of showers and storms appear to be along the WAA…..Dewpoints in that area have came up into the to upper 40s to lower 50s…..Big question for our FA will this rain make it into our area……Dewpoints throughout the FA are in the middle 40s, winds have switched to the SE so hints that the WAA has started to kick in over the over……Upper level soundings still rather dry, so we end up with nothing more than clouds or a few sprinkles today….WAA kicks into high gear later this afternoon and tonight as we see dewpoints climb into the lower 50s…..The humid conditions will last right through Saturday, as dewpoints climb into the 60s….. SFC analysis is showing a 1029 MB high pressure over the SE part of Lake Superior in fact stretching down into the OH/TN valleys…Nice trough over the Rockies area…..Shortwave over SW MN……This shortwave as discussed above appears to come through the FA dry…….

Thursday will feature yet another shortwave moving in…..This shortwave is over the Western states this morning…This is forecasted to move into Northern MN throughout the day tomorrow…..This will surely kick off showers and thunderstorms as it moves into the area……Thinking strong to severe thunderstorms will remain over in MN during the afternoon….However Thursday evening/night strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the FA…..Looks to be a heavy rain producer for the area, in fact for the region…..Yet another shortwave set to move into the area for Friday afternoon/night….So another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible…..Think that is the end, oh heck no….More showers and thunderstorms will be possible right through Monday/Monday night of next week…..Could see a few rounds of severe thunderstorms through this time frame as well…..

Now as far as temps go……Here it gets a little tricky…..Depending how much sun we see during the day will dictate how warm we get……I really don’t believe in most of the computer model guidance’s as they would appear to be to warm giving the cloud forecasts for each day….There is no question it will be warm and humid….I have decided to cut the temps back into the upper 70s to lower 80s through this whole time frame…..With that said if we do see more sun during the days….Lower to mid 80s will be in the more likely…..Time will only tell…….Either way it looks to be a very wet period, warm and humid period….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION TUESDAY THE 19^TH THROUGH FRIDAY THE 29^TH***

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will be forecasted on the morning of the 19^th ..A cold front is forecasted to move into the area later in the day with more showers and thunderstorms this should clear the early by early the morning hours of the 20^th, however some post frontal showers will be possible throughout the day. A another system moves into the area for the early morning hours of the 21^st this looks to mainly affect my Central and Eastern FA….Things dry out for Friday the 22^nd The weekend looks somewhat dry attm, in fact we will dry out right through Thursday the 28^th…..Another shot of showers and thunderstorms coming into play for the 29^th

Temps through this period look to be summerish……Nothing to cold, nothing to hot….Overall temps in the 80s for highs and lows in the 50s to 60s…..

Severe thunderstorm outlook

Here is our severe thunderstorm forecast for Sunday, along with the cold frontal position and times.

 Here is our severe thunderstorm forecast....

Heavy rainfall early this morning

so how much did fall, and where did it fall? check out the radar est rainfall maps below....

 A closer look at where the heaviest rain fell early this morning....

Sunday's severe weather forecast...

This map is for Sunday through the overnight hours of Sunday night....

Severe weather outlook

This map is for Friday....

Updated from last night

***updated to add new current conditions, and also to fine tune some wording throughout the short term……Also added the long term discussion...*** See below to compare….

Forecast problems…..Today there will a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around….Better chance tonight as WAA kicks in full gear….Temps will be somewhat problematic for the weekend, more on this later…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 10:00 AM….Looking at the visible satellite image, we find and area of clouds that are moving South/Southeast…..Still a few holes in this cloud deck, as some sites are reporting mostly sunny skies….Temps this morning are already running into the lower 70s across the entire FA….Winds are from the South/Southwest from 5 to 8 MPH……Looking at the radar we see nothing for returns in our FA…..

*** FORECAST DISCUSSION ***

Look for the same setup today as we have seen over the last few days…..A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon…..Tonight a shortwave is forecasted to move into Northern MN….WAA will kick into high gear this will aid in more showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into the early morning hours of Friday… Shortwave will still hang around for Friday afternoon….Here is where things could get a little interesting…..Depending if storms get going in MN and if they can hold their own, which ATTM conditions looks like they could/should……This storms could effect parts of my Central and Northern areas….Some of these storms could be on the strong side to even lower end severe…..Still feel the main severe weather threat should stay over in Central and Northern MN for Friday afternoon……Highs on Friday should flirt with 80…….Saturday and Sunday…. We will see tons of sunshine……No showers or storms are forecasted, as the atmosphere will be capped due to very warm temps aloft…..850 MB temps 15 to 20c will mean a hot two days on tap…..Temps will reach for the 90 degree mark this weekend…If we get some high to middle clouds to drift in temps will them be in the upper 80s….Dewpoints are forecasted to be in the 60s….So looks like a great weekend on or in the lakes…..
Sunday night a cold front is forecasted to march across MN…This will fire off thunderstorms…..Storms should form into a line…..This line of storms should march its way through my FA Sunday night into the early Monday morning hours……Can’t rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms…..Though with the frontal boundary forecasted to come through after prime-time SFC heating is over….Monday afternoon could be interesting as another cold front/ Shortwave drops Southeast into the area……We could see a better chance of severe thunderstorms then, however thermodynamics look a tad weak ATTM….Something we will keep a close eye on though….

***SEVERE WEATHER THREAT***

Today through early morning hours of Friday…..Today severe thunderstorms are not forecasted…Late tonight into the very early morning hours of Friday….No severe thunderstorms are forecasted, however some of the storms could become strong to the lower threshold of severe limits….Some storms could produce hail and strong winds….(still feel this the better chance of severe weather would be over into Central/Northern MN)…… Friday afternoon/evening….Thunderstorms are forecasted to reform and push into the FA….Some of these storms could become strong to severe mainly over my far Northern central and Northern areas…The threat would be for large hail and strong winds……Saturday and Sunday no thunderstorms are forecasted…..
Sunday night…..There will be a better chance of severe thunderstorms as a strong cold front pushes towards the area… Main threat would be large hail and damaging winds……Monday afternoon……Depending how far the cold front pushes through and with the second cold front/shortwave coming in there could be another shot at severe thunderstorms during this time frame…..For now will hold off on this until models get a better handle on the timing of systems….

*** MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Tuesday will be colder than normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s…..Same holds for Wednesday and Friday. There will a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday….Overall the big weather story will be the colder temps and lower dewpoints….Which will be welcomed after this weekend….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION JUNE 16^th through JUNE 23rd***

On Saturday June 16^th we will see some warmer air move back into the area…This warm air looks to hold right through the end of this period.
Highs in the 80s may make a run at 90 degree a few days….. Lows will mainly be in the 60s….As far as showers and thunderstorms go…..We will start this time frame with late afternoon/evening and early morning showers and thunderstorms with dry conditions during the most of the days….By the middle of this period things slowly dry out, however there will still be a slight chance of showers and storms in the afternoon/evening and early morning hours….

Forecast dis. for Northwestern/Western WI

Forecast problems…..Once again tomorrow there will a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around….Better chance tomorrow night as WAA kicks in full gear….Temps will be somewhat problematic for the weekend, more on this later…..

CURRENT CONDITIONS……

At 11:00PM skies range from clear to partly cloudy…..Temps are in the upper 50s to lowers 60s….. Winds are calm ti light from the East/Northeast….

*** FORECAST DISCUSSION ***

Look for the same setup tomorrow as we have seen over the last few days…..A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon…..Tomorrow night a shortwave is forecasted to move into Northern MN….WAA will kick into high gear this will aid in more showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into the early morning hours of Friday… Shortwave will still hang around for Friday afternoon….Here is where things could get a little interesting…..Depending if storms get going in MN and if they can hold their own, which ATTM conditions looks like they could/should……This storms could effect parts of my Central and Northern areas….Some of these storms could be on the strong side to even lower end severe…..Still feel the main severe weather threat should stay over in Central and Northern MN for Friday afternoon……Highs on Friday should flirt with 80…….Saturday and Sunday…. We will see tons of sunshine……No  showers or storms are forecasted, as the atmosphere will be capped due to very warm temps aloft…..850 MB temps 15 to 20c will mean a hot two days on tap…..Temps will reach for the 90 degree mark this weekend…If we get some high to middle clouds to drift in temps will them be in the upper 80s….Dewpoints are forecasted to be in the 60s….So looks like a great weekend on or in the lakes…..

Sunday night a cold front is forecasted to march across MN…This will fire off thunderstorms…..Storms should form into a line…..This line of storms should march its way through my FA Sunday night into the early Monday morning hours……Can’t rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms…..Though with the frontal boundary forecasted to come through after prime-time SFC heating is over….Monday afternoon could be interesting as  another cold front/ Shortwave drops Southeast into the area……We could see a better chance of severe thunderstorms then, however thermodynamics look a tad weak ATTM….Something we will keep a close eye on though….

*** MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Tuesday will be colder than normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s…..Same holds for Wednesday and Friday. There will a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday….Overall the big weather story will be the colder temps and lower dewpoints….Which will be welcomed after this weekend….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

We will issue this tomorrow……

Our new radar

We at The Weather Center are happy to bring you are newest radar that we will be using..Dual Pol...This radar will let us bring you the best short term forecast...We will be able to let you know where hail/mixed precip/and snow...This will also allow us to see the average drop shape and size, and much more.... We here at The Weather Center have taken countless hours of training on this Dual Pol radar....We will be using the Duluth's radar as this is now Dual Pol, once Chanhassen switches over we will use that site....We will also still use level 2 and some level 3 products, However we will really depend on the Dual Pol as it has much more to offer......Here is a sample of the our newest radar.....

05/27/2012 moive clip

Here is the link to the clip from 05/27/2012.....Did speed this up...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVXtqZBt2js