Thursday, June 7, 2012

Updated from last night

***updated to add new current conditions, and also to fine tune some wording throughout the short term……Also added the long term discussion...*** See below to compare….

Forecast problems…..Today there will a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around….Better chance tonight as WAA kicks in full gear….Temps will be somewhat problematic for the weekend, more on this later…..


At 10:00 AM….Looking at the visible satellite image, we find and area of clouds that are moving South/Southeast…..Still a few holes in this cloud deck, as some sites are reporting mostly sunny skies….Temps this morning are already running into the lower 70s across the entire FA….Winds are from the South/Southwest from 5 to 8 MPH……Looking at the radar we see nothing for returns in our FA…..


Look for the same setup today as we have seen over the last few days…..A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon…..Tonight a shortwave is forecasted to move into Northern MN….WAA will kick into high gear this will aid in more showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into the early morning hours of Friday… Shortwave will still hang around for Friday afternoon….Here is where things could get a little interesting…..Depending if storms get going in MN and if they can hold their own, which ATTM conditions looks like they could/should……This storms could effect parts of my Central and Northern areas….Some of these storms could be on the strong side to even lower end severe…..Still feel the main severe weather threat should stay over in Central and Northern MN for Friday afternoon……Highs on Friday should flirt with 80…….Saturday and Sunday…. We will see tons of sunshine……No showers or storms are forecasted, as the atmosphere will be capped due to very warm temps aloft…..850 MB temps 15 to 20c will mean a hot two days on tap…..Temps will reach for the 90 degree mark this weekend…If we get some high to middle clouds to drift in temps will them be in the upper 80s….Dewpoints are forecasted to be in the 60s….So looks like a great weekend on or in the lakes…..
Sunday night a cold front is forecasted to march across MN…This will fire off thunderstorms…..Storms should form into a line…..This line of storms should march its way through my FA Sunday night into the early Monday morning hours……Can’t rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms…..Though with the frontal boundary forecasted to come through after prime-time SFC heating is over….Monday afternoon could be interesting as another cold front/ Shortwave drops Southeast into the area……We could see a better chance of severe thunderstorms then, however thermodynamics look a tad weak ATTM….Something we will keep a close eye on though….


Today through early morning hours of Friday…..Today severe thunderstorms are not forecasted…Late tonight into the very early morning hours of Friday….No severe thunderstorms are forecasted, however some of the storms could become strong to the lower threshold of severe limits….Some storms could produce hail and strong winds….(still feel this the better chance of severe weather would be over into Central/Northern MN)…… Friday afternoon/evening….Thunderstorms are forecasted to reform and push into the FA….Some of these storms could become strong to severe mainly over my far Northern central and Northern areas…The threat would be for large hail and strong winds……Saturday and Sunday no thunderstorms are forecasted…..
Sunday night…..There will be a better chance of severe thunderstorms as a strong cold front pushes towards the area… Main threat would be large hail and damaging winds……Monday afternoon……Depending how far the cold front pushes through and with the second cold front/shortwave coming in there could be another shot at severe thunderstorms during this time frame…..For now will hold off on this until models get a better handle on the timing of systems….


Tuesday will be colder than normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s…..Same holds for Wednesday and Friday. There will a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday….Overall the big weather story will be the colder temps and lower dewpoints….Which will be welcomed after this weekend….


On Saturday June 16th we will see some warmer air move back into the area…This warm air looks to hold right through the end of this period.
Highs in the 80s may make a run at 90 degree a few days….. Lows will mainly be in the 60s….As far as showers and thunderstorms go…..We will start this time frame with late afternoon/evening and early morning showers and thunderstorms with dry conditions during the most of the days….By the middle of this period things slowly dry out, however there will still be a slight chance of showers and storms in the afternoon/evening and early morning hours….