Forecast concerns will deal with the possibility of heavy
rainfall for the rest of the work week and into the weekend, could also see
some severe thunderstorms here and there…Will try to hash all this out…..
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9:00 AM…Skies range from Mostly Cloudy to Partly Cloudy…..Temps
in the 60s with dry dewpoints in the 40s through they are now in the upper 40s
across my Western areas…..Winds South/Southeast from 6 to 13 MPH with some
higher gust…
***SHORT TERM/MIDDLE FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE 18TH***
For today…..Clouds have already taken over the area as a
weak system is pushing through Southern MN. Radar is showing an area of showers
and a few thunderstorms over the SW part of MN….This area of showers and storms
appear to be along the WAA…..Dewpoints in that area have came up into the to
upper 40s to lower 50s…..Big question for our FA will this rain make it into
our area……Dewpoints throughout the FA are in the middle 40s, winds have
switched to the SE so hints that the WAA has started to kick in over the over……Upper
level soundings still rather dry, so we end up with nothing more than clouds or
a few sprinkles today….WAA kicks into high gear later this afternoon and
tonight as we see dewpoints climb into the lower 50s…..The humid conditions
will last right through Saturday, as dewpoints climb into the 60s….. SFC
analysis is showing a 1029 MB high pressure over the SE part of Lake Superior
in fact stretching down into the OH/TN valleys…Nice trough over the Rockies
area…..Shortwave over SW MN……This shortwave as discussed above appears to come
through the FA dry…….
Thursday will feature yet another shortwave moving in…..This
shortwave is over the Western states this morning…This is forecasted to move
into Northern MN throughout the day tomorrow…..This will surely kick off
showers and thunderstorms as it moves into the area……Thinking strong to severe
thunderstorms will remain over in MN during the afternoon….However Thursday
evening/night strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the FA…..Looks to be
a heavy rain producer for the area, in fact for the region…..Yet another
shortwave set to move into the area for Friday afternoon/night….So another
round of showers and thunderstorms are possible…..Think that is the end, oh
heck no….More showers and thunderstorms will be possible right through Monday/Monday
night of next week…..Could see a few rounds of severe thunderstorms through
this time frame as well…..
Now as far as temps go……Here it gets a little tricky…..Depending
how much sun we see during the day will dictate how warm we get……I really don’t
believe in most of the computer model guidance’s as they would appear to be to
warm giving the cloud forecasts for each day….There is no question it will be
warm and humid….I have decided to cut the temps back into the upper 70s to
lower 80s through this whole time frame…..With that said if we do see more sun
during the days….Lower to mid 80s will be in the more likely…..Time will only
tell…….Either way it looks to be a very wet period, warm and humid period….
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION TUESDAY THE 19TH
THROUGH FRIDAY THE 29TH***
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will be forecasted on the morning
of the 19th ..A cold front is forecasted to move into the area later
in the day with more showers and thunderstorms this should clear the early by
early the morning hours of the 20th, however some post frontal
showers will be possible throughout the day. A another system moves into the area
for the early morning hours of the 21st this looks to mainly affect
my Central and Eastern FA….Things dry out for Friday the 22nd The
weekend looks somewhat dry attm, in fact we will dry out right through Thursday
the 28th…..Another shot of showers and thunderstorms coming into
play for the 29th
