Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Forecast dis for Western/Northwestern WI
Forecast concerns will deal with the possibility of heavy rainfall for the rest of the work week and into the weekend, could also see some severe thunderstorms here and there…Will try to hash all this out…..
At 9:00 AM…Skies range from Mostly Cloudy to Partly Cloudy…..Temps in the 60s with dry dewpoints in the 40s through they are now in the upper 40s across my Western areas…..Winds South/Southeast from 6 to 13 MPH with some higher gust…
***SHORT TERM/MIDDLE FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THE 18TH***
For today…..Clouds have already taken over the area as a weak system is pushing through Southern MN. Radar is showing an area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the SW part of MN….This area of showers and storms appear to be along the WAA…..Dewpoints in that area have came up into the to upper 40s to lower 50s…..Big question for our FA will this rain make it into our area……Dewpoints throughout the FA are in the middle 40s, winds have switched to the SE so hints that the WAA has started to kick in over the over……Upper level soundings still rather dry, so we end up with nothing more than clouds or a few sprinkles today….WAA kicks into high gear later this afternoon and tonight as we see dewpoints climb into the lower 50s…..The humid conditions will last right through Saturday, as dewpoints climb into the 60s….. SFC analysis is showing a 1029 MB high pressure over the SE part of Lake Superior in fact stretching down into the OH/TN valleys…Nice trough over the Rockies area…..Shortwave over SW MN……This shortwave as discussed above appears to come through the FA dry…….
Thursday will feature yet another shortwave moving in…..This shortwave is over the Western states this morning…This is forecasted to move into Northern MN throughout the day tomorrow…..This will surely kick off showers and thunderstorms as it moves into the area……Thinking strong to severe thunderstorms will remain over in MN during the afternoon….However Thursday evening/night strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the FA…..Looks to be a heavy rain producer for the area, in fact for the region…..Yet another shortwave set to move into the area for Friday afternoon/night….So another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible…..Think that is the end, oh heck no….More showers and thunderstorms will be possible right through Monday/Monday night of next week…..Could see a few rounds of severe thunderstorms through this time frame as well…..
Now as far as temps go……Here it gets a little tricky…..Depending how much sun we see during the day will dictate how warm we get……I really don’t believe in most of the computer model guidance’s as they would appear to be to warm giving the cloud forecasts for each day….There is no question it will be warm and humid….I have decided to cut the temps back into the upper 70s to lower 80s through this whole time frame…..With that said if we do see more sun during the days….Lower to mid 80s will be in the more likely…..Time will only tell…….Either way it looks to be a very wet period, warm and humid period….
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION TUESDAY THE 19TH THROUGH FRIDAY THE 29TH***
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will be forecasted on the morning of the 19th ..A cold front is forecasted to move into the area later in the day with more showers and thunderstorms this should clear the early by early the morning hours of the 20th, however some post frontal showers will be possible throughout the day. A another system moves into the area for the early morning hours of the 21st this looks to mainly affect my Central and Eastern FA….Things dry out for Friday the 22nd The weekend looks somewhat dry attm, in fact we will dry out right through Thursday the 28th…..Another shot of showers and thunderstorms coming into play for the 29th