***FORECAST DISCUSSION SHORT TERM AND MIDDLE TERM***
Monday, June 25, 2012
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.
Enjoy the cool night tonight temps down into the 40s!!…..A much needed dry spell for the area……Temps warming backup…. Could we see any record temps? We will discuss all of this….
At 12:00 AM we find clear skies across the area…Temps in the in the lower to middle 50s…Eau Claire and Menomonie still holding onto the lower 60s…..Dewpoints lower 50s…..Winds are NE light to calm…..
The only concern I have through this whole time frame is how high to go with temps for Wednesday and Thursday…Tonight could see some areas of fog don’t feel it will be a big deal…..Nam is forecasting the 850 MB temps over my FA to range from 20 to 25…With 850 MB temps in Southwestern MN…This is where I do feel the hotter temps will be found with temps upper 90s to lower 100s…..Rest of MN and Western/Northwestern WI should see temps upper 80s to lower 90s……Looking at the daily climatology for this week, esp. for Wednesday and Thursday…I find that the record high for Wed is 93 set back in 1971. The record high for Thur is 92 set back in 1961…… We may get dangerously close to these records…Will be able to have a better handle on this in Tuesday’s update, as there still is some disagreement in models…GFS keep the area a little cooler, so for now figure the best way was to blend both models to come with 86 to 92 forecasted temp range for both days…..Another side note that kept me from going higher with temps 1. SFC winds will be more South/Southeast, than Southwest that brings us warmer are….. 2. Dewpoints will be very high taken longer to heat the SFC temps…Nam forecasting dews in the 65 to 70 degree range….GFS have more 60 to 65 dews….Either way is will be humid….. Now if we can get more of a Southwesterly wind component and some drier air mixing into the area we could be dealing with higher temps……AS far as rainfall goes….Not going to happen this week. Next chance of rain looks to come in on Saturday and Sunday..With off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms to start July off… The 4th of July appears to be looking good, Though looks be a very warm one…So to sum it up dry, warm, and humid…Will be the main theme for this week…..
Tonight…. Clear with areas of fog, winds light NE…Lows 46 to 50.
Monday…… Sunny light South wind around 5 MPH, Highs 73 to 76.
Monday night….. Clear warmer Light Southeast wind around 4 to 8 MPH…..
Tuesday…. Sunny, highs around 80…Lows lower to middle 60s.
Wednesday….. Sunny and warm, highs 86 to 92. Lows 65 to 70.
Thursday….Sunny and warm, highs 86 to 92. Lows lower to middle 60s.
Friday… Sunny cooler, highs around 80 with lows in the lower 60s…
The weekend forecast.. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly at night and early mornings. Highs lower to middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s