Severe weather threat areas

Here is our severe thunderstorm forecast map for today....
The red area has the great threat for severe thunderstorms today....The

orange areas has the second best chance for severe thunderstorms....The green area has a slight chance almost a very small chance in those area......

Forecast dis. for Western/Northwestern WI

One more day of very warm and humid conditions before a much needed break comes into play Starting tomorrow and lasting through the weekend…..There is some forecast problems for today and tomorrow. 1. Will be get some sunshine, that will make a difference in how warm we get, also will determine if we get any severe thunderstorms to form later this afternoon…Big story will be the drop in temps and dewpoints…… Let’s try to work out the problems that face the near term forecast period.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 10 AM Skies range from cloudy to mostly sunny across the FA…… Temps range from the lower 70s to the upper 70s……DP temps middle 60s to lower 70s…..Winds are out of the Southeast from 8 to 10 MPH.

It’s a humid morning out there!

***FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW***

This morning MCS is still pushing North/Northeast through Northern WI… Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has pushed out of the FA, However still some showers and thunderstorms forming along the outflow boundary down in Southern Dunn CNTY, into Pepin CNTY..This areas of showers and storms is moving East Northeast around 38 KTS…They should be out of those areas by time this discussion is said and done…Looking at the visible satellite imagery we see a nice clearing area from Southwest MN into parts of Western WI…… Looking out the window here at the office we see skies starting clear…..However looking back at the satellite imagery we see clouds in MN along with more showers and storms forming along the cold front that is over the Western parts of that state….. SFC analysis this morning we find a low pressure system over Southwestern MN With a warm front Just East of the low reaching down through the Northeastern part of IA…. We see a secondary cold front over Central ND reaching down into far Northwestern SD…. The low pressure is Forecasted to move East/Northeast today this will drag the warm front Northwards, Now how far North will it make it NAM has is pushing through the FA while GFS and ECMWF keeps the front South…..  Either way this won’t really play into the forecast to much… We will find better moisture and instabilities North of the warm front…South of the warm front a very strong cap will be in place……CAPE is forecasted to run from 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s…As of right now I’m not to thrilled with wind shear…Still strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the FA…..Looking at temps thing get tricky here…. If we get sunshine for most of the day I see no reason why we cant make it to the middle 80s to upper 80s with a few 90s in my far Southern areas…..If we end up with more clouds we would stay in the lower to middle 80s…..Dewpoints are forecasted to range from the lower to middle 70s…..

Tonight the cold front will have pushed through the FA this will end the shower and thunderstorm chances, However with moisture in the boundary level we should see some fog forming….

Tomorrow we will have a secondary cold front push through the area……If we can get some SFC heating going we could see a few strong thunderstorms here and there…..ATTM I don’t think there will be a widespread severe weather threat…..

***MIDDLE TERM FORCAST DISCUSSION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY***

 There will still be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorm in the morning hours of Friday……The afternoon looks dry and much cooler…. Some may say cold as temps range from the middle 70s to upper 70s…..Temps we have not seeing in the daytime for a very long time….Friday night under clear skies temps will fall below the 60 degree mark, again it’s been a very long time since we temps like that……Saturday the FA area will still be under the high pressure system so look for a very nice day clear skies and temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s…….Saturday might the high slips to our Southeast and this setups return flow/WAA this will bring in a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms same hold for Sunday….Temps do warm back up into the lower 80s for Sunday……

To sum up this time frame……Cooler and less humid conditions on tap…..Temps below normal for a change!

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY THE 30^TH THROUGH  FRIDAY AUG 10^TH ***

Temps warm into the middle to upper 80s on Monday and hold that way through Sunday the 5^th …… On Monday we see a backdoor cold front push some cooler air in off of Lake Superior so will run with temps in the lower to middle 80s the cooler temps last right through the 10^th …. There will be a chance of off and on thunderstorms through this time frame, will be to hard to time this far out……..

To sum up the long range temps will be warm but not hot, off and on shots of showers and thunderstorms…….

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

If you are getting sick of the very warm and humid temps we have been having you will love the forecast by the end of the week and into next weekend……Can you say upper 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints will not be as high as they have been……

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Temps at 11 AM are in the  80s with 90 at EAU…..Dewpoints are well into the 60s    Winds Northwest from 6 to 12 MPH with gust up to 20 MPH at times over in the Rice Lake and Ladysmith areas…

***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Cold front/wind shift has pushed through all my FA this morning….This will keep pushing South/Southeast through today/tonight and should end up over central IA by 06z Tuesday…..Meanwhile a weak short-wave over SD this should really have no impact on the FA…..Cap is to strong over the FA and my neighbor’s FA……For tonight best chance of showers and storms will be found over my far Southern areas and all of my neighbor’s FA……Still could see a few showers and thunderstorms inch into my Central and Northern areas tonight….Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s with some lower 90s…… For tomorrow….If thunderstorms make into my Central and Northern areas they should move out by afternoon….My Southern areas will remain close enough to the LLJ and moisture over running the frontal boundary down in IA to keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms going down there….A stronger short-wave/ cold front begins it journey into the area later Tuesday night through Wednesday…..This will cause more widespread showers and thunderstorms for the entire FA….Some of the rainfall could be heavy at times throughout the entire FA. There may be a chance of some severe thunderstorms throughout my FA on Wednesday…..Still some things need to come into play for this to pan out….Will do a severe weather outlook tomorrow if needed…..Thursday through Friday will keep showers and thunderstorms around as short-wave drop Southeast in the Northwest flow we will be in…..Northwest flow will allow for temps to fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s……Looks like we are heading for below normal temps right through the need of July…..A mush welcomed break from the very warm and humid conditions we have been locked under since the middle of June…..So a little taste of fall on its way….

Map below is our forecasted frontal boundary area.

Our best area to see rain below.

Tuedays through Wed weather map.

July 14th/ early morning hrs of the 15 Auroras

Was a hot humid night in the Northwoods...I was watching the Aurora data throughout the day.Then I headed out, little did I know I would be out from sun down to sun up....I had to move around a few times ciase of the fog....Also had problems with dew on my lens...So last night was a lot of work....Give me this over storm chasing anyday of the week!!

Rain forecast map

Below is our rain forecast map from Friday through Saturday.....Areas in the green have a better chance at seeing some rainfall....Other area my also see some rain, but the areas in green have a better chance that areas not in green....

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Not a whole lot to talk about in the weather dept in the short term…..Temps will remain nice not hot, lawn may get a free watering Friday through Saturday evening….. More on this soon…

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 8:00 AM temps are in the middle 60s to lower 70s…DP temps range from the  upper 50s to lower 60s….Winds range from calm to SE around 3 MPH…..Skies are sunny throughout the FA…..

***SHORT TERM AND MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

RAP, NAM, GFS, and ECMWF models are in rather good agreement with the short/middle term forecast….Some strength differences on the large high pressure system that was has locked under mostly sunny skies over past few days….No big deal though those little differences won’t impact the forecast at all……With more of a southerly winds at the SFC we will see the dewpoints start to climb, Won’t see the higher dewpoints until weeks end and into the first part of the weekend. So upper 50s to lower 60….With increasing dp temps to the middle to upper 60s by weeks end…..2m temps will be in the middle to upper 80s throughout short and middle term….We shall see some showers and thunderstorms as a few shortwaves drop Southeast through the upper level Northwest flow….ATTM it doesn’t look to be a total washout for Friday and Saturday.

So the short/middle term forecast looks like this today through Thursday…. Mostly sunny skies to sunny skies, highs in the middle to upper 80s….Lows in the middle to upper 60s…. Friday we see a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon lasting into the evening hrs…  Highs middle 80s…. Lows upper 60s….. Saturday another chance of showers and thunderstorms, they should begin to die off Saturday evening….Highs lower  to middle 80s, with lows upper 60s…Sunday looks to be dry for now highs in the middle 80s, low is the upper 60s….

*** LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY 16^TH THROUGH FRIDAY THE 25^TH***

Models are not agreeing what so ever in this period, which will make this forecast a hard one. Temps will be the biggest problem along with showers and thunderstorms…..

Monday there could be a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a warm front starts to work towards the FA….Low pressure is forecasted to push into MN and then toward WI this is forecasted to drag a drag backdoor cold front through the area per GFS….I find this hard to buy into ATTM…..If this does happen we will see showers and thunderstorms around Monday night and Tuesday as the front sits South of the area…..Temps will be cooler if this does play out lower 80s…….Now ECMWF pushes the warm front through the FA, still shows showers and thunderstorms, however this would allow for temps to be in the upper 80s to around 90 or so…. Not sure if I buy into that either…..So will blend the two will keep temps in the middle 80s to upper 80s depending on cloud cover….Will run with showers and thunderstorms right through Tuesday evening…..

Wednesday the 18^th I will still rund with temps in the middle 80s…. In fact I’m going to run those temps right through Tuesday the 24^th  On the 25^th  will warm them to the upper 80s, and hold them there right through Friday the 25^th.

Models showing the main heat way to West and South of the area….This could all change…..As far as precip goes…Best way to do this would to say off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms……

To sum this period up in a nutshell…..Temps ranging from the middle to upper 80s with lows in the middle to upper 60s, with off and on chances of precip….With model not agreeing what so ever this long term forecast can easily  bust….We will be updating this as we get closer to this time frame and by them models should have a better handle on the overall weather pattern.

July 8th thunderstorm

Was nice little strong thunderstorm that rolled through Barron County, the Strongest part was in Northern and Central, before it weaken....Pictures below ....

Severe thunderstorms

Not much time at all heading out for damage pictures from the severe thunderstorms that rocked Barron County in the early morning hours...
Excessive heat warning is in effect untill 10 PM thursday....Temps in the middle 90s to 100 with dewys in 70s will cause heat index values from 105 to 112.....

Record high smashed

For Rice Lake WI.
We has smashed our record of high of 93 that was set back in 1966. Temp as of 4:00 PM was 95.
How much higher will we go?
Not to be out done, Eau Claire also smashed a record high of 98 that was set back in 1911. They reached 99 so far today..... How much warmer will they get?

Here is an update on the heat wave that is baking the FA...
The NWS had issued a heat adviosry for all of my FA until 10 PM Thursday evening...
Here are some temps at 4:00 PM

The Weather Center’s office……97

Rice Lake…..95

Cumberland….90

Siren…….95

Ladysmith…..91

Eau Claire….98

Menomonie…..N/A

New Richmond….93

Osceola……93

Let’s look at some more temps outside our FA….

Superior…..73

The Twin Cities…..98

Rochester…..92

How hot is it? Time to find out...

Is it hot enough for you? Time to see how hot it really is…..This is not the heat index!

Here are some temps as of 2 PM this afternoon….

The Weather Center’s office……93

Rice Lake…..91

Cumberland….90

Siren…….93

Ladysmith…..90

Eau Claire….97

Menomonie…..N/A

New Richmond….91

Osceola……93

Let’s look at some more temps outside our FA….

Superior…..72

The Twin Cities…..96

Rochester…..92

La Crosse….96

Severe thunderstorms.update on the heat wave.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much on the my FA...See map for Counties and areas where severe storms will be possilbe.....The threat area starting later this afternoon or evening and lasting through the overnight hours.

A warm front is forecasted to be over West central MN extending down to Twin Cities area then over to La Crosse WI….. We will also see a rather strong shortwave ride along the frontal boundary…..Points South of said front will be capped so not excepting much in the way of showers/thunderstorms….Points along and North of the warm front should be where the action will take place at….We should see MLCAPE values soar into the 3500 to 4500 J/KG this afternoon. Thunderstorms should blow up over West Central MN storms over here could form into supercells that could produce a few tornados from time to time….. The supercells should form into line/lines of thunderstorms/MCS……To aid in severe weather formation  Lifted index is forecasted to be from -2 to -6  to as high as -8….PWS forecasted to be 3.5 to close to 4 inches…..Shear levels are forecasted to be around 30 to 45 kts…..There is enough cap to keep the wannabes down. Yet this cap is going to be breakable along and North of the warm front…… South of the warm front cap is going to be strong/if thunderstorms do form in that area they will be elevated and shouldn’t last long at all…..

The main severe weather threat for my FA will be damaging straight line winds, and some hail…..On top of that could see some heavy rain amounts if storms are able to train over the same areas for a period of time…..

Below is our severe thunderstorm outlook map....

Update on the heat wave….

Depends on what the complex of thunderstorms do if they indeed form…..If they do form…The outflow boundaries from there storms very may well push the warm front South back over IA for much of the day tomorrow, before it heads North again….Tuesday night we may see the same thing play all out and once again Wednesday night….If this is the case we will not get as hot as we were thinking yesterday….Could be dealing with upper 80s to lower 90s across the my FA, In fact this could be the setup throughout Central and Southern MN as well as all of WI…..The main heat would then stay over IA, Il, and NE……For now I’m going to leave the forecast below stand….Will wait to see what takes place tonight on whether to trim temps down or not…..

Looking back at June.

The data is for Barron County only....This data is from The Weather Center's data log......

Looking back at June 2012…..

There was 13 non severe thunderstorms days.

There was 1 severe thunderstorm day.

There was 1 tornado watch issued.

There was 2 severe thunderstorm watches issued.

There were no tornado warnings issued.

There was 4 severe thunderstorm warnings issued..(all 4 on the same day)

Days that had non severe thunderstorms are as follows…… 3^rd,4^th,5^th,6^th,7^th,8^th,10^th , 11^{th   ,}  16^{th ,} 17^th  , 18^th  , 19th  and the 20^th …..

Days that had severe thunderstorms……the 14^th in which we got a hail storm in the morning hours.

Days that had severe thunderstorm warning issued….The 14^th

Total thunderstorm days =  14....
.

June was way above normal in rainfall.

June was just slightly warmer than normal….

 Looking back at June 2011…..

There was only 10 non severe thunderstorms days, there was no severe thunderstorms days….

There 2 tornado watches issued……There was no severe thunderstorm watch issued…..There were no tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings issued.

So you can see this year in June was more active than last year.

Long lasting heat wave/severe thunderstorms

The forecast will deal with the long lasting dangerous  heat wave, thunderstorms chances, along with some severe thunderstorm possibilities….

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 9:00 AM skies are mostly sunny throughout the FA… Temps range from the middle to upper 70s……Dewpoints range from the lower to middle 60s….Wind light from the South/Southwest … Some stations reporting winds from the Southeast.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK***

Main weather factor will be the long lasting heat wave that is going to bake the FA right through next week….Looking back at the record temps for the Rice Lake area….Will go day by day and will add either safe or in danger.

The 2^nd. 93 set back in 1966 Safe…… 3^rd….95 set back in 1990 Safe…..4^th…..95 set back in 1990  in danger…. 5^th 94 set back in 1982 in danger….. 6^th…..96 set back in 1988 somewhat in danger….7^th…..97 set back in 1988 safe….

So one can see we could tie or even break a few records this upcoming week…..Now with that said there could be a few flies in the soup….1…. will the winds be out of the Southwest. 2 can we mix down some drier dewpoints in the afternoons. 3…Will clouds and thunderstorms clear the area soon enough if they do indeed form….. So there are still somewhat ifs that need to worked out……Lets try to work out what we can giving the latest data we have in at The Weather Center this morning…..

Weather today will be warm and humid today…..Middle to upper 80s once again…..Warm front is forecasted to begin its trek Northeast wards towards the area…..This frontal boundary will set the stages for showers and thunderstorms mainly tonight and into tomorrow morning…..As far as severe storms go tonight the chances are nil…..On Monday the warm front will push just North of my FA….Here is where the forecast becomes a problem.

Heat and humidity are a giving….. The chance of showers and thunderstorms not a giving here could be why…… The cap becomes too strong during the afternoon hours. No small short waves move through…..Now must models do show a rather strong cap, they also hint at short waves riding along the warm frontal boundary….The cap should be able to be broken by these short waves….First one comes through Monday night early Tuesday morning….This could produce widespread severe thunderstorms, mainly a large line of them…..Way it looks this would effect my Central  Southern to my Northern areas….My far Southern areas should remain dry……Now this storms will be driven by a strong LLJ …. The NWS is stating that this could be a Derecho type event…….If this does all play out the main threat would be for widespread damaging wind event…..

The warm front and short waves riding along it will be the main player for showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night into Tuesday early morning hours then again on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning hours…..

Again this will all depend on where the warm front decides to setup camp….If it setup just North on my FA like models are forecasting we shall see this activity. If it pushes more North we should remain dry……

Big question on everyone’s mind is how does the 4^th of July look? There will be a chance of early morning showers and thunderstorms before 9 AM….After that it will be dry hot and humid….Highs 90 to 95….For the firework show….It will be dry with temps in the middle 70s.

The only reason why I didn’t run with 100s in my Central and Southern areas are dewpoints forecasted to be high…Like stated above…….

A cold front is forecasted to slam into the area Friday night or Saturday, this will be in cooler air with a chance of showers and thunderstorms…..

So to recap all of this….Hot and humid conditions to last through next week….Highs in the lower to middle 90s lows in the 70s. With off and showers and thunderstorms chances, mainly during the overnight hours and into the early morning hours…..

Keep cool!!