One more day of very warm and humid conditions before a much
needed break comes into play Starting tomorrow and lasting through the weekend…..There
is some forecast problems for today and tomorrow. 1. Will be get some sunshine,
that will make a difference in how warm we get, also will determine if we get
any severe thunderstorms to form later this afternoon…Big story will be the
drop in temps and dewpoints…… Let’s try to work out the problems that face the
near term forecast period.
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 10 AM Skies range from cloudy to mostly sunny across the
FA…… Temps range from the lower 70s to the upper 70s……DP temps middle 60s to
lower 70s…..Winds are out of the Southeast from 8 to 10 MPH.
It’s a humid morning out there!
***FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW***
This morning MCS is still pushing North/Northeast through
Northern WI… Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has pushed out of the
FA, However still some showers and thunderstorms forming along the outflow
boundary down in Southern Dunn CNTY, into Pepin CNTY..This areas of showers and
storms is moving East Northeast around 38 KTS…They should be out of those areas
by time this discussion is said and done…Looking at the visible satellite imagery
we see a nice clearing area from Southwest MN into parts of Western WI……
Looking out the window here at the office we see skies starting clear…..However
looking back at the satellite imagery we see clouds in MN along with more
showers and storms forming along the cold front that is over the Western parts
of that state….. SFC analysis this morning we find a low pressure system over
Southwestern MN With a warm front Just East of the low reaching down through
the Northeastern part of IA…. We see a secondary cold front over Central ND
reaching down into far Northwestern SD…. The low pressure is Forecasted to move
East/Northeast today this will drag the warm front Northwards, Now how far
North will it make it NAM has is pushing through the FA while GFS and ECMWF
keeps the front South….. Either way this
won’t really play into the forecast to much… We will find better moisture and instabilities
North of the warm front…South of the warm front a very strong cap will be in
place……CAPE is forecasted to run from 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s…As of right now I’m not to thrilled with wind shear…Still
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the FA…..Looking at
temps thing get tricky here…. If we get sunshine for most of the day I see no
reason why we cant make it to the middle 80s to upper 80s with a few 90s in my
far Southern areas…..If we end up with more clouds we would stay in the lower
to middle 80s…..Dewpoints are forecasted to range from the lower to middle 70s…..
Tonight the cold front will have pushed through the FA this
will end the shower and thunderstorm chances, However with moisture in the boundary
level we should see some fog forming….
Tomorrow we will have a secondary cold front push through
the area……If we can get some SFC heating going we could see a few strong
thunderstorms here and there…..ATTM I don’t think there will be a widespread
severe weather threat…..
***MIDDLE TERM FORCAST DISCUSSION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY***
There will still be a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorm in the morning hours of Friday……The
afternoon looks dry and much cooler…. Some may say cold as temps range from the
middle 70s to upper 70s…..Temps we have not seeing in the daytime for a very
long time….Friday night under clear skies temps will fall below the 60 degree
mark, again it’s been a very long time since we temps like that……Saturday the
FA area will still be under the high pressure system so look for a very nice
day clear skies and temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s…….Saturday might the
high slips to our Southeast and this setups return flow/WAA this will bring in
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms same hold for Sunday….Temps do
warm back up into the lower 80s for Sunday……
To sum up this time frame……Cooler and less humid conditions
on tap…..Temps below normal for a change!
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY THE 30TH
THROUGH FRIDAY AUG 10TH ***
Temps warm into the middle to upper 80s on Monday and hold
that way through Sunday the 5th …… On Monday we see a backdoor cold
front push some cooler air in off of Lake Superior so will run with temps in
the lower to middle 80s the cooler temps last right through the 10th
…. There will be a chance of off and on thunderstorms through this time frame,
will be to hard to time this far out……..
To sum up the long range temps will be warm but not hot, off
and on shots of showers and thunderstorms…….
