Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Forecast dis. for Western/Northwestern WI
One more day of very warm and humid conditions before a much needed break comes into play Starting tomorrow and lasting through the weekend…..There is some forecast problems for today and tomorrow. 1. Will be get some sunshine, that will make a difference in how warm we get, also will determine if we get any severe thunderstorms to form later this afternoon…Big story will be the drop in temps and dewpoints…… Let’s try to work out the problems that face the near term forecast period.
At 10 AM Skies range from cloudy to mostly sunny across the FA…… Temps range from the lower 70s to the upper 70s……DP temps middle 60s to lower 70s…..Winds are out of the Southeast from 8 to 10 MPH.
It’s a humid morning out there!
***FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW***
This morning MCS is still pushing North/Northeast through Northern WI… Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has pushed out of the FA, However still some showers and thunderstorms forming along the outflow boundary down in Southern Dunn CNTY, into Pepin CNTY..This areas of showers and storms is moving East Northeast around 38 KTS…They should be out of those areas by time this discussion is said and done…Looking at the visible satellite imagery we see a nice clearing area from Southwest MN into parts of Western WI…… Looking out the window here at the office we see skies starting clear…..However looking back at the satellite imagery we see clouds in MN along with more showers and storms forming along the cold front that is over the Western parts of that state….. SFC analysis this morning we find a low pressure system over Southwestern MN With a warm front Just East of the low reaching down through the Northeastern part of IA…. We see a secondary cold front over Central ND reaching down into far Northwestern SD…. The low pressure is Forecasted to move East/Northeast today this will drag the warm front Northwards, Now how far North will it make it NAM has is pushing through the FA while GFS and ECMWF keeps the front South….. Either way this won’t really play into the forecast to much… We will find better moisture and instabilities North of the warm front…South of the warm front a very strong cap will be in place……CAPE is forecasted to run from 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s…As of right now I’m not to thrilled with wind shear…Still strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the FA…..Looking at temps thing get tricky here…. If we get sunshine for most of the day I see no reason why we cant make it to the middle 80s to upper 80s with a few 90s in my far Southern areas…..If we end up with more clouds we would stay in the lower to middle 80s…..Dewpoints are forecasted to range from the lower to middle 70s…..
Tonight the cold front will have pushed through the FA this will end the shower and thunderstorm chances, However with moisture in the boundary level we should see some fog forming….
Tomorrow we will have a secondary cold front push through the area……If we can get some SFC heating going we could see a few strong thunderstorms here and there…..ATTM I don’t think there will be a widespread severe weather threat…..
***MIDDLE TERM FORCAST DISCUSSION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY***
There will still be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorm in the morning hours of Friday……The afternoon looks dry and much cooler…. Some may say cold as temps range from the middle 70s to upper 70s…..Temps we have not seeing in the daytime for a very long time….Friday night under clear skies temps will fall below the 60 degree mark, again it’s been a very long time since we temps like that……Saturday the FA area will still be under the high pressure system so look for a very nice day clear skies and temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s…….Saturday might the high slips to our Southeast and this setups return flow/WAA this will bring in a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms same hold for Sunday….Temps do warm back up into the lower 80s for Sunday……
To sum up this time frame……Cooler and less humid conditions on tap…..Temps below normal for a change!
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY THE 30TH THROUGH FRIDAY AUG 10TH ***
Temps warm into the middle to upper 80s on Monday and hold that way through Sunday the 5th …… On Monday we see a backdoor cold front push some cooler air in off of Lake Superior so will run with temps in the lower to middle 80s the cooler temps last right through the 10th …. There will be a chance of off and on thunderstorms through this time frame, will be to hard to time this far out……..
To sum up the long range temps will be warm but not hot, off and on shots of showers and thunderstorms…….