The forecast will deal with the long lasting dangerous heat wave, thunderstorms chances, along with
some severe thunderstorm possibilities….
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9:00 AM skies are mostly sunny throughout the FA… Temps
range from the middle to upper 70s……Dewpoints range from the lower to middle
60s….Wind light from the South/Southwest … Some stations reporting winds from
the Southeast.
***FORECAST DISCUSSION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK***
Main weather factor will be the long lasting heat wave that
is going to bake the FA right through next week….Looking back at the record
temps for the Rice Lake area….Will go day by day and will add either safe or in
danger.
The 2nd. 93 set back in 1966 Safe…… 3rd….95
set back in 1990 Safe…..4th…..95 set back in 1990 in danger…. 5th 94 set back in
1982 in danger….. 6th…..96 set back in 1988 somewhat in danger….7th…..97
set back in 1988 safe….
So one can see we could tie or even break a few records this
upcoming week…..Now with that said there could be a few flies in the soup….1….
will the winds be out of the Southwest. 2 can we mix down some drier dewpoints
in the afternoons. 3…Will clouds and thunderstorms clear the area soon enough
if they do indeed form….. So there are still somewhat ifs that need to worked
out……Lets try to work out what we can giving the latest data we have in at The
Weather Center this morning…..
Weather today will be warm and humid today…..Middle to upper
80s once again…..Warm front is forecasted to begin its trek Northeast wards
towards the area…..This frontal boundary will set the stages for showers and
thunderstorms mainly tonight and into tomorrow morning…..As far as severe
storms go tonight the chances are nil…..On Monday the warm front will push just
North of my FA….Here is where the forecast becomes a problem.
Heat and humidity are a giving….. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms not a giving here could be why…… The cap becomes too strong during
the afternoon hours. No small short waves move through…..Now must models do
show a rather strong cap, they also hint at short waves riding along the warm
frontal boundary….The cap should be able to be broken by these short waves….First
one comes through Monday night early Tuesday morning….This could produce
widespread severe thunderstorms, mainly a large line of them…..Way it looks
this would effect my Central Southern to
my Northern areas….My far Southern areas should remain dry……Now this storms
will be driven by a strong LLJ …. The NWS is stating that this could be a
Derecho type event…….If this does all play out the main threat would be for
widespread damaging wind event…..
The warm front and short waves riding along it will be the
main player for showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night into Tuesday early
morning hours then again on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning hours…..
Again this will all depend on where the warm front decides
to setup camp….If it setup just North on my FA like models are forecasting we
shall see this activity. If it pushes more North we should remain dry……
Big question on everyone’s mind is how does the 4th
of July look? There will be a chance of early morning showers and thunderstorms
before 9 AM….After that it will be dry hot and humid….Highs 90 to 95….For the
firework show….It will be dry with temps in the middle 70s.
The only reason why I didn’t run with 100s in my Central and
Southern areas are dewpoints forecasted to be high…Like stated above…….
A cold front is forecasted to slam into the area Friday
night or Saturday, this will be in cooler air with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms…..
So to recap all of this….Hot and humid conditions to last
through next week….Highs in the lower to middle 90s lows in the 70s. With off
and showers and thunderstorms chances, mainly during the overnight hours and
into the early morning hours…..
Keep cool!!
