Sunday, July 1, 2012
Long lasting heat wave/severe thunderstorms
The forecast will deal with the long lasting dangerous heat wave, thunderstorms chances, along with some severe thunderstorm possibilities….
At 9:00 AM skies are mostly sunny throughout the FA… Temps range from the middle to upper 70s……Dewpoints range from the lower to middle 60s….Wind light from the South/Southwest … Some stations reporting winds from the Southeast.
***FORECAST DISCUSSION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK***
Main weather factor will be the long lasting heat wave that is going to bake the FA right through next week….Looking back at the record temps for the Rice Lake area….Will go day by day and will add either safe or in danger.
The 2nd. 93 set back in 1966 Safe…… 3rd….95 set back in 1990 Safe…..4th…..95 set back in 1990 in danger…. 5th 94 set back in 1982 in danger….. 6th…..96 set back in 1988 somewhat in danger….7th…..97 set back in 1988 safe….
So one can see we could tie or even break a few records this upcoming week…..Now with that said there could be a few flies in the soup….1…. will the winds be out of the Southwest. 2 can we mix down some drier dewpoints in the afternoons. 3…Will clouds and thunderstorms clear the area soon enough if they do indeed form….. So there are still somewhat ifs that need to worked out……Lets try to work out what we can giving the latest data we have in at The Weather Center this morning…..
Weather today will be warm and humid today…..Middle to upper 80s once again…..Warm front is forecasted to begin its trek Northeast wards towards the area…..This frontal boundary will set the stages for showers and thunderstorms mainly tonight and into tomorrow morning…..As far as severe storms go tonight the chances are nil…..On Monday the warm front will push just North of my FA….Here is where the forecast becomes a problem.
Heat and humidity are a giving….. The chance of showers and thunderstorms not a giving here could be why…… The cap becomes too strong during the afternoon hours. No small short waves move through…..Now must models do show a rather strong cap, they also hint at short waves riding along the warm frontal boundary….The cap should be able to be broken by these short waves….First one comes through Monday night early Tuesday morning….This could produce widespread severe thunderstorms, mainly a large line of them…..Way it looks this would effect my Central Southern to my Northern areas….My far Southern areas should remain dry……Now this storms will be driven by a strong LLJ …. The NWS is stating that this could be a Derecho type event…….If this does all play out the main threat would be for widespread damaging wind event…..
The warm front and short waves riding along it will be the main player for showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night into Tuesday early morning hours then again on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning hours…..
Again this will all depend on where the warm front decides to setup camp….If it setup just North on my FA like models are forecasting we shall see this activity. If it pushes more North we should remain dry……
Big question on everyone’s mind is how does the 4th of July look? There will be a chance of early morning showers and thunderstorms before 9 AM….After that it will be dry hot and humid….Highs 90 to 95….For the firework show….It will be dry with temps in the middle 70s.
The only reason why I didn’t run with 100s in my Central and Southern areas are dewpoints forecasted to be high…Like stated above…….
A cold front is forecasted to slam into the area Friday night or Saturday, this will be in cooler air with a chance of showers and thunderstorms…..
So to recap all of this….Hot and humid conditions to last through next week….Highs in the lower to middle 90s lows in the 70s. With off and showers and thunderstorms chances, mainly during the overnight hours and into the early morning hours…..