Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.
Not a whole lot to talk about in the weather dept in the short term…..Temps will remain nice not hot, lawn may get a free watering Friday through Saturday evening….. More on this soon…
At 8:00 AM temps are in the middle 60s to lower 70s…DP temps range from the upper 50s to lower 60s….Winds range from calm to SE around 3 MPH…..Skies are sunny throughout the FA…..
***SHORT TERM AND MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
RAP, NAM, GFS, and ECMWF models are in rather good agreement with the short/middle term forecast….Some strength differences on the large high pressure system that was has locked under mostly sunny skies over past few days….No big deal though those little differences won’t impact the forecast at all……With more of a southerly winds at the SFC we will see the dewpoints start to climb, Won’t see the higher dewpoints until weeks end and into the first part of the weekend. So upper 50s to lower 60….With increasing dp temps to the middle to upper 60s by weeks end…..2m temps will be in the middle to upper 80s throughout short and middle term….We shall see some showers and thunderstorms as a few shortwaves drop Southeast through the upper level Northwest flow….ATTM it doesn’t look to be a total washout for Friday and Saturday.
So the short/middle term forecast looks like this today through Thursday…. Mostly sunny skies to sunny skies, highs in the middle to upper 80s….Lows in the middle to upper 60s…. Friday we see a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon lasting into the evening hrs… Highs middle 80s…. Lows upper 60s….. Saturday another chance of showers and thunderstorms, they should begin to die off Saturday evening….Highs lower to middle 80s, with lows upper 60s…Sunday looks to be dry for now highs in the middle 80s, low is the upper 60s….
*** LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY 16TH THROUGH FRIDAY THE 25TH***
Models are not agreeing what so ever in this period, which will make this forecast a hard one. Temps will be the biggest problem along with showers and thunderstorms…..
Monday there could be a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a warm front starts to work towards the FA….Low pressure is forecasted to push into MN and then toward WI this is forecasted to drag a drag backdoor cold front through the area per GFS….I find this hard to buy into ATTM…..If this does happen we will see showers and thunderstorms around Monday night and Tuesday as the front sits South of the area…..Temps will be cooler if this does play out lower 80s…….Now ECMWF pushes the warm front through the FA, still shows showers and thunderstorms, however this would allow for temps to be in the upper 80s to around 90 or so…. Not sure if I buy into that either…..So will blend the two will keep temps in the middle 80s to upper 80s depending on cloud cover….Will run with showers and thunderstorms right through Tuesday evening…..
Wednesday the 18th I will still rund with temps in the middle 80s…. In fact I’m going to run those temps right through Tuesday the 24th On the 25th will warm them to the upper 80s, and hold them there right through Friday the 25th.
Models showing the main heat way to West and South of the area….This could all change…..As far as precip goes…Best way to do this would to say off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms……
To sum this period up in a nutshell…..Temps ranging from the middle to upper 80s with lows in the middle to upper 60s, with off and on chances of precip….With model not agreeing what so ever this long term forecast can easily bust….We will be updating this as we get closer to this time frame and by them models should have a better handle on the overall weather pattern.