Monday, July 2, 2012

Severe thunderstorms.update on the heat wave.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much on the my FA...See map for Counties and areas where severe storms will be possilbe.....The threat area starting later this afternoon or evening and lasting through the overnight hours.

A warm front is forecasted to be over West central MN extending down to Twin Cities area then over to La Crosse WI….. We will also see a rather strong shortwave ride along the frontal boundary…..Points South of said front will be capped so not excepting much in the way of showers/thunderstorms….Points along and North of the warm front should be where the action will take place at….We should see MLCAPE values soar into the 3500 to 4500 J/KG this afternoon. Thunderstorms should blow up over West Central MN storms over here could form into supercells that could produce a few tornados from time to time….. The supercells should form into line/lines of thunderstorms/MCS……To aid in severe weather formation  Lifted index is forecasted to be from -2 to -6  to as high as -8….PWS forecasted to be 3.5 to close to 4 inches…..Shear levels are forecasted to be around 30 to 45 kts…..There is enough cap to keep the wannabes down. Yet this cap is going to be breakable along and North of the warm front…… South of the warm front cap is going to be strong/if thunderstorms do form in that area they will be elevated and shouldn’t last long at all…..

The main severe weather threat for my FA will be damaging straight line winds, and some hail…..On top of that could see some heavy rain amounts if storms are able to train over the same areas for a period of time…..
Below is our severe thunderstorm outlook map....

Update on the heat wave….

Depends on what the complex of thunderstorms do if they indeed form…..If they do form…The outflow boundaries from there storms very may well push the warm front South back over IA for much of the day tomorrow, before it heads North again….Tuesday night we may see the same thing play all out and once again Wednesday night….If this is the case we will not get as hot as we were thinking yesterday….Could be dealing with upper 80s to lower 90s across the my FA, In fact this could be the setup throughout Central and Southern MN as well as all of WI…..The main heat would then stay over IA, Il, and NE……For now I’m going to leave the forecast below stand….Will wait to see what takes place tonight on whether to trim temps down or not…..