Friday, September 5, 2008

Hanna and Ike's forecast plus your local forecast

My first forecast for Hanna can be found on my below so if one wants to compare them....
Hanna really has not got much of a chance to get her act going as she has been in the battle with wind shear and dry air,however still a strong TS must of the models keep her at TS level.Though it could be possible Hanna could reach Cat 1 hurricane by time it comes ashore...Hanna is located about 400 -430 miles South of Wilmington NC..Moving Northwest....However models do show Hanna making a slight turn to the North...NAM has Hanna at 986 MB of pressure this morning which is close to the OBS report....NAM has Hanna moving just off shore of FL MBS do come a little to around 991 as it tracks just East of FL...NAM has Hanna making landfall in about the same area as the previous forecast has stated(see my Blog).....From there Hanna works her way up and through the Eastern States...Looks to be a lot of heavy rain falling through out most of the Eastern states for this weekend....Now lets look at the GFS model...GFS has Hanna's pressure at 994 MBS right now this almost 10 MBS weaker than NAM and the OBS reports....GFS weaken Hanna to around 1000 MBS by time it makes landfall...Projected landfall by GFS is much more North than in my last forecast....GFS has landfall coming in around Northeast SC to around Southeast NC....From there GFS works Hanna up along the Eastern States closer to the shore while Nam has Hanna further inland...No matter what model is right one thing is assured heavy rain for the Eastern States...Lets look at the QPF As much as 5.76 inches are forecasted long the Eastern coast states all the way up to Maine by time it's all said and done...I would say if you are in the Central and Eastern parts of the Coast states you shall see the heaviest rains....
Lets talk about Hurricane Ike for a little.
Ike is now at Cat 3 status...Ike is heading for the Caicos and Turks Islands,He is forecasted to be around said Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas by Sunday...Ike is forecasted to weaken some over the few days,However the long range models do show him restrengthening...Long rage Models showing Ike making landfall over far Southern FL around the late Tuesday night/Early Wednesday morning time frame...We will watch it and try to update the forecast as seen fit...
Now your local forecast for West Central and Northwest WI...
Areas of morning fog will be burning off as we go through this first Friday of September....Temps at this hour are rather chilly...39.8 degrees here at the office outside of Rice lake also 39 being reported in Hayward,other than that SFC OBS showing temps in the lower 40s this morning...Cloud cover form the leftovers of Gustav now out of the FA...Which is not uncommon to get clouds and percip from TS,and hurricanes this far North,I have seen this many of times...Everyone talks like its a big deal well in reality it's not...Anyway clouds will be on the increase as a weak low moves well North and West of the FA....If the FA area was to see rain it would be up in the Northwestern areas...Better chance at rainfall for the FA comes into play tomorrow through Sunday...Temps will be well below norms for the next week...Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.....