Saturday, September 6, 2008

Local forecast,fast update on Ike

I just used my AFD from the firm I forecast for...Fast updat on Ike..Looks like he is going to pass over Cuba and just South of FL...Shows you want happens when you rush a forecast...I should have an update out tonight on Ike which will not be rushed!
Local forecast for MN and Western/Northwestern WI...
Fall like weekend on tap for the Northwoods...Infact looks like much of the forecast period will feel like fall as high temps remain below norms..Low temps also below norms on nights we have clouds around otherwise lows will also be below norms...
Current Conditions.
Checking out this morning's SFC OBS we find temps in the lower to middle 50s most areas...Middle to upper 40s found over our Northwestern part of our MN FA along with far Northern MN....Dewpoints are running rather close to air temps so areas of fog also showing up in the OBS reports....Fog is also confirmed by GOES low cloud base product satellite....Radar is also showing some returns in the following areas of MN Southeastern Cass,Aitkin into pine Counties...Also a few returns showing up in Eastern St.Louise,Lake,and cook Counties....DBZ 15 to 35 at best with these light showers...
Today through Sunday night.
SFC analysis shows a 1012 MB low pressure over Northeastern MN/Western Lake Superior this morning...Also there is a 1017 MB high pressure over the Northern part of WY..Meanwhile we find another low pressure over the CO area this low is coming in at 1014 MBS....We find a cold front now coming into play across far Northwestern ND back into far Northern MT...This will be the feature of interest this weekend...Today will keep a shot at showers maybe a thunderstorm alive over most of the FA as the weak area of low over Northeastern MN slowly moves out of the area...Later today the said cold front is forecasted to move into ND around the 18z time frame..By 00z Sunday cold front should be into our Northwestern FA of MN,,Models have a 1014 MB low pressure forming along the frontal boundary in Northwestern MN by 06Z This low is forecasted to work due East this will drag the cold front into our central FA of MN by 12Z Sunday...Frontal boundary clear the area later Sunday night and by 00Z Monday should be in Eastern WI....Will have to go with likely hood on showers and some thunderstorms for Sunday in Sunday night....Attm no severe thunderstorms are forecasted...Though most areas should see some much need rainfall by Sunday evening....
Monday through Tuesday.
I have decided to run with partly sky wording in the forecast though did kick the idea about keeping a few showers in the Far Northeastern part of our WI FA as this areas still may be close enough for wrap around light showers....Still have time to change it if needed....
Other than that this time frame will rather dull and cool...Did think about dropping the temps into the 30 across much of the area with the mention of frost Tuesday night...Still not to thrilled on that just yet,however it is something I will have to watch....
Wednesday through Thursday.
Next system should move into the area on Wednesday and hold into Thursday evening...This system as of right now looks to give us another good shot at rainfall..We will watch this...