Friday, September 12, 2008

My forecast for Ike short & long term

What a change hurricane Ike has made....This past week I just haven't had the time I wanted to..So I was unable to keep up with this or even my local weather....So time to dive head first into this forecast for Ike...Current SFC pressure OBS showing Ike to be around 953 MBS the Models have Ike around 960 MBS so all in all pretty close..As we get to around the Sat 000z models forecasting Ike to have a pressure around 967 MBS by time it he makes landfall the pressure should be around 964 MBS....So models really aren't forecasting much more strengthening of Ike... Ok lets try to pin down landfall....Thinking is Ike will make landfall in between these two points. Freeport up to Gilchrist TX...Ike should be a cat one hurricane as it makes landfall early Saturday morning.....So why such a big change from last weekend's forecast.....Well first off the bat....Models didn't pick up on some things as they have been and also being so far out in the period things do change and sometime fast like we have seen with Ike 2nd thing we to talk about is that mid to upper level ridge which built more to the East than I though it was going to also with a trough of low pressure moving in a little faster from the west..So combined them two this pushes Ike more towards the North than previous forecast had...One thing looks to a sure bet is that Central and Easter TX should see heavy rainfall from Ike along with parts of LA then up into OK and Western AR....Ike will ride Northeast along a cold front currently located from Southern WI down into the TX Panhandle...The cold front is forecasted to reach Southern MI down into Central OK and into the Northwest 1/3rd of TX by the early Sunday's time frame by 12z Sunday the front should have pushed into the OH /TN Valleys then reaching down into the Easter 1/3 of TX...The cold front will pick Ike up and move him into OK..Around 12z Monday Ike should be near Southern IN still moving Northeast long the frontal boundary towards the Northeastern States...12z Tuesday Ike will have should be centered just of the Coast of ME..We shall see if this all plays out...
Dirk S. Miller