Monday, September 1, 2008

Gustav and the forecast for Hanna

Hurricane Gustav...LA.Still getting pounded by Cat 1 Gustav at this hour...Gustav made landfall this morning 15 miles Southwest of Houma Currently the center of circulation is Southeast of Saint Martinville or just Northeast of New Iberia....Gustav should continue to weaken to TS limits as it moves Northwest into TX,it should then weaken to a TD as it moves North through East Central/Northeastern TX....I have seen alot of talk about this system stalling out over LA...I don't see that happen as of right now..I do see this system slowly moving through said parts of TX before a cold front picks up the left overs and pushes into Southern AR or Northern LA..This system will continue to produce heavy rainfall for LA,AR,and parts of TX......
Now lets talk about Hurricane Hanna....
Hanna has reached cat 1 status this early this afternoon....Hurricane Hanna will keep producing heavy rain and heavy winds over the Bahamas through Wednesday....Nam and GFS models are very close in the track and strength of Hurricane Hanna through 0000 UTC Friday...However Nam takes the center a little closer to the FL Coast....While GFS keep the center out a ways....These difs aren't going to make that much of difference.....Will run with GFS with a blend of Nam for this discussion..
Center pressure is down to around 985 MBS this is much lower than forecast by the models...So this does make this forecast a little on edge as to what cat this storm is going to be as it gets closer to FL and GA....Will nail that part down through out this week....However as of right now GFS is forecasting Hanna to start to move Northwest ...Hanna should just be off the Coast of FL,Hanna will keep tracking Northwest towards GA's Coast line.Around the Friday's morning's time frame...Hanna appears to stay just off shore...Now Hanna is forecasted to make landfall in Northeast GA/Southeastern SC......With the info I'm looking at right now I'm going to stay Hanna will make landfall between these two points...
From Blackbread Island GA up to Edisto Beach SC...Landfall looks to be on Friday late morning into the early afternoon hours.....GFS has the pressure down to around 992 MBS by time Hanna makes landfall...So looks like Hanna will be close enough to FL,and GA for heavy rainfall amounts...Also as it makes landfall in said areas above heavy rainfall in storm for SC..Hanna is forecasted to weaken to a TD as it moves inland...This system is forecasted to move up along the Eastern States through the rest of the week and into the Northeast for the upcoming weekend.....I will have updates on Hanna every night....