Forecast..SUCKS!!!!

Forecast headaches...There are many....Temps will be the main player through out the whole forecast cycle....As they will remain well below norms overall..I had to go back a trim temps down across the broad...Frost/freeze will also become a problem once again through out this forecast period...Today the problems will be showers and thunderstorms...Storms in my Central and Southern areas of MN,and WI..While rain in the Northern areas....Some storms still have the possibility of becoming strong to severe...Overall the severe weather threat has took a turn for the downside...More on that in a mintue....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning are in the lower 40s where there has been rain/clouds...Middle 50s elsewhere's...Dewpoint still rather low lower to middle 30s...Radar showing a rather large area of showers,maybe a few t-storms Moving across much of my Northern MN areas...Also a few rain showers up over Iron County....

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a 1017 MB high pressure over LK Superior...Also find a trof located over Northern MN...Meantime we see a 1000 MB low pressure system spinning it's wheels over ND..Warm front extends South of the low into SD,and NE...Also a strong cold front now entering far NW ND...This front reaches back into and through MT.....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

First off showers have been moving through most of my Northern MN into my Northeastern zones of WI areas along the trof..Rain has been moving East ....This may lead to problems with the chances of strong to severe thunderstorms across my Central and Southern zones of MN,and WI,as the cloud deck from this trof is pushing East/South East....Also clouds have really started to pop along the warm front..Moisture/higher dewpoints have not made it into my FA yet...Dewpoints still in the 30s....Overall I think the severe weather threat is going to very low through out my FA...However if deeper moisture can make it into my Central and Southern zones,and the FCSTED cloud deck clears out before primetime heating there may be a few strong to severe thunderstorms...As of right now to many things going against it....Still we will have to see how this mess plays out this morning into the early afternoon hrs.....

UPCOMING WORK WEEK....

Temps take a dive right back to below norms again...No big warm ups in sight....Have ran with chances of showers and thunderstorms...With little daytime heating it won't take much to produce some showers/storms.With very cold air sitting aloft...
Northwest flows refuses to give up like most of this spring...Trend in the models is to keep it going right through the extended forecast period...So I did some major downsizing in the temp dept....There will be chances of frost/freeze conditions off and on right through this period....Same old song,and same old dance....Good news is if you like summer temps...Long range models are showing a nice warm up starting around the 324 hr forecast which would be Sat June 13th...If this all plays out we could see temps into the 80s..We can only hope!

Hummingbird

I had to get pictures of this little guy this evening...

Forecast

Forecast problems...Temps,winds,frost for tonight,and the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms over mainly my Central and Southern zones for Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps at this 10 AM hour rather cool....upper 40s to upper 50s across the FA..Skies are mainly sunny...Winds rather gusty at this hour also....

SFC ANALYSIS....

CDFNT that brought showers and a few thunderstorms to the area yesterday evening into the over night hours as push into far Southern WI,with a 1006 MB low pressure...Meanwhile a 1019 MB high pressure over Southern Canada.......

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

1019 MB high pressure will be in control of the our weather through this period...Winds will be rather gusty through out the day,already have been seeing this at the 9 AM hour through out the FA....Temps still below norms for this time of year....Tonight SFC high sits over head...Winds will become calm and skies MSTLY CLR....Models showing very cold air for this time of year making camp through out the FA...With light winds and MSTLY CLR skies this will lead to the formation of widespread frost for my Central and Northern areas of MN,and all of my Northern areas of WI...This could end up being a killing frost for said areas..More details on that in the HWD....

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....

Temps reach for the middle 70s across my Southern and Central zones while my Northern areas hold onto the 60s....High pressure will be fast to move out of the area allowing return flow out ahead of our next system...CDFNT is forecasted to move into the area Sunday afternoon and through the FA by early Sunday evening..Dewpoints head into the middle 50s maybe lower 60s in the Central and Southern zones of MN,and WI...Lapse rates are rather steep through these area up to 7.5 C..Wind shear is rather impressive..up to 35-40 KTS....This shall lead to the formation of showers and thunderstorms...Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe along the CDFNT in the afternoon....Should see more in away of a line of storms get going in the afternoon,then race Eastwards....Main threat from any severe thunderstorms appear to be hail,and gusty winds ATTM...With that said may see a tornado or two with the storm imitation...Still my thinking on that...That would be down in Southern MN/IA.....

LONG TERM......

Over all looks to be a cool and dry FCST period....Next chance of showers/thunderstorms come back onto the track about Thur...I did hold onto the chances of showers/and storms right through next Sunday.....

Walleye/severe thunderstorms for Sunday...

What does a storm chaser do when they are not out chasing storms? Well myself I head for the lake..Just two pictures of the 17 1/2" walleye I got last night right before the light showers moved in...No I'm not drunk,just a lack of sleep..Pictures aren't the best,as my friend took them...Not the biggest walleye I got,but still it is legal so I was happy..Going back out tonight...

Severe thunderstorms still on the docket for Sunday..More details on that later today...Looks like I will get a local chase day in on Sunday..Then Monday I may just head South of the cold front for another chase day....

strong to severe thunderstorms possbile Sunday

This forecast will mainly deal with the strong/severe thunderstorms chances for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening....

Most of the FA has cleared out nicely this morning..Still some clouds hanging around in my Southern zones...Satellite image showing a band of clouds out over in MN along a cold front..This front is FCSTD to come through dry....Temps should warm back to norms today.....Friday...We see yet another weak front push through the area...NAM/GFS still hinting at some ISO showers and t-storms...Thinking is the chances of that happening in the FA will be small...Main show should be over parts of IA/IL/into Southern WI....Temps do cool back into the upper 60s to lower 70s for Friday and Saturday...PTLY CLDY skies seem to be the way to run for Saturday as a weak high pressure will be over head....

Now onto the main story for this FCST cycle..Sunday.....
Strong CDFNT is forecasted to push into the FA late Sunday afternoon..Models have been slowing this down a tad...Never the less the FNT should push through during prime time heating.Temps on Sunday should hit the middle 70s...Dewpoints increase up to 55 to 60....LIFTED INDEX does make it to around -2 to -3.5 or so...The combination of all of that and wind shear...Should be enough to set off some strong to severe thunderstorms through out the FA.....Main threat would be large hail giving the upper level thermal temps,along with damaging winds....May see an ISO tornado....However right not I'm not to thrilled about that...Am going to wait to see what the next few models runs show....Nevertheless Sunday late afternoon/evening is looking more interesting around here....We shall find out soon enough...

Longer term...

Dry period from Monday through Wednesday...As if we didn't see that one coming....Temps in the lower 70s for highs and middle to upper 40s for lows.....

Back

After some muched needed time away from forecasting,I'm back....With that said,I may be heading out storm chasing this weekend into next week,as it looks like the death ridge may break down for a few days,before rebuilding once again...More on that later...Hope everyone is enjoying the below normal temps....Don't get use to the warmer temps coming up, as they won't last long.....Right back into the cold we shall go again...Same old song and dance...Like it has been all last winter and this spring/early summer.....

Forecast

Temps through out this up coming work week will be up and down..No real big lasting warm ups or long lasting cold temps...Also there will be a chance of off and on showers and storms....Some storms on Monday could become strong...Details on that below..

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Temps are making a nice recovery after a rather chilly night..Upper 30s and lower 40s @ this 8 AM hour...Most of the FA winds are light...Satellite data reviles most clear skies...Some clouds noted over far Northeastern MN and parts of Northwestern WI...

SFC ANALYSIS....

1029 MB high pressure over Northern MO this morning..Cold front that blasted through the FA on Friday is now well East and South....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

High pressure is forecasted to move Southeast, this will allow a return flow to kick back in WAA will slowly start today...Temps shall be warmer today than yesterday....60s look to be good bet to place...Tonight WAA really cranks ups so added showers and storms in parts of my MN zones....Thinking right now is my WI zones should remain dry....

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.....

Things get a little interesting Mon late afternoon into the evening for Eastern parts of my MN zones,as well as all of my WI zones...CDFNT pushing into the area...Thinking is models are over doing the moisture return..This would be a big factor on whether thunderstorms would become strong to severe,however There will be plenty of SFC heating and steep Lapse rates along with some rather good veering of the wind field...All in all right now Am not thrilled about this set up..Still there is a small chance that some of the thunderstorms that fire could reach the lower severe weather thresholds...Main threat would be some hail and gusty winds..Monday night front clears the FA...Temps will cool back of for Tuesday....

LONG TERM....

Another shot of showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for Wed's time frame,as another cold front pushes into and through the area...Temps should be warmer on Wed.....Will keep things dry for the upcoming weekend ATTM...Will run with temps in the 70s for highs,and 40s for lows....

Now for the forecast

Forecast headaches...Today...Cold temps..Tonight frost....Tuesday through Wednesday thunderstorms....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps starting this Mother's day in the upper 30s to lower 40s..Still some rain showers showing up on radar in parts of my WI zones...Most of my Northern and Western MN zones under fair to PTLY CDLY skies....

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning's weather charts showing a 1018 Low pressure system sitting over SW WI..A 1026 high pressure system over Central Southern ND/Central Northern SD...Meanwhile a 1022 MB high pressure is over NE/MO Then that pesky FNTL BNDRY over the far Southern States...This is where all the active weather will remain...Severe thunderstorms again a good PSBLTY along the boundary areas.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Weak area of low pressure that has and still is kicking off some showers over mainly my WI Counties is FCSTD to move out of the area today...High pressure is FCSTD to build into the area,this is already showing up rather nice on the satellite image...This should end the rain across my WI zones,however skies here should remain MSTLY CDLY...In most of my MN zones skies should be PTLY CDLY...Highs today will be well below norms for this time of year....Tonight temps will dive into the 20s and 30s across much of the FA,this with PTLY CDLY skies and light winds could lead to the formation of frost across the entire FA..
Monday FA area under the hands of a high pressure system....Mon may be a little of a problem...WAA slowly kicks into gear if this happens a little sooner may have to add a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the FCST...For now am going to keep it dry....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.....

Monday night WAA gets it act going on stage so will run with chances of showers and storms..Best chance coming over my Western and Central areas of MN...Tue and Wed....Strong CDFNT moves into and through the area...Showers and thunderstorms look to be a sure bet...PWS still FCSTD to range around the 1.25 Inches...Still not to thrilled about a lot of INSTBY,however with forcing along and ahead of the strong CDFNT could see some thunderstorms become strong...SEE HWD for that info....

REST OF THE WORK WEEK....

Thur..should be dry...Did run with showers and storms for Friday,as WAA kicks back into play....

THE LONG TERM....

Off and on showers and storms are in much of this time frame...Temps for the most part will remain on the cool side,still should see a few warm days here and there...

Fall or Spring ? AFD below

A rather raw cold weekend on tap for the Northwood's..Forecast problems..Rain/snow today...Than frost tonight and tomorrow night....Than showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday...And showers through out the extended FCST cycle....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps starting out on the cool side this morning thanks to a CDFNT that slammed through the area last evening....Temps in the lower 40s to middle to upper 30s are found through out the whole FA...Winds rather gusty this morning out of the North...Won't even talk about wind chills....However it does feel more like a fall day than a spring day....Large areas of clouds blankets the area...Some breaks are notes in a few spots,however them should be filling in within time....Radar showing some lgt rain over parts of WI,and MN at this hour....Over in Warroad MN lgt snow is being reported..Is this May or Nov?

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a low pressure system over Southeast WI...We also see a couple of short-waves one over ND while the other is just North into Canada..High pressure up over Saskatchewan Canada....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Today will be the problem day.....Short-waves forecasted to move into and through the area...This will keep the chances of rain alive today...Some of the rain may mix with snow,mainly up North...Were 1/4 to as much as a 1/2 inch may fall...Would not be shocked to see some rain mixing with snow through out the rest of the FA this morning....Highs will be running below norms today through Sunday.....Tonight was thinking about leaving in a very small chance of precip to account for sprinkles/flurries....
Sunday...Still clod for this time of year...Did run with MSTLY CLDY skies... Frost is possible tonight and once again Sunday night,Limiting factors to the frost would be the amount of clearing that takes place,and how strong the winds remain...

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....

WAA kicks back into play out ahead of the next system to effect the area...Temps will be warmer than this weekend....High pressure slips of to the East/Southeast return flows becomes more evident,as Southerly winds kick.Did run with MSTLY CLR. Skies...Did entertain the idea about adding some low chance of showers and thunderstorms out in my Western Counties of MN.but didn't..Still have time make that call later if needed....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Here is where things get rather interesting..What is rather remarkable is that ECMWF and GFS are seeing just about eye to eye on this low pressure and strong CDFNT....DWPNTS increase to around 50 or so In MN Tuesday,than across WI Tuesday afternoon/Evening....Lapse Rates increase to around 7.5 C/KM to 8.5 C/KM through Western MN Tuesday night this will also build into Central and Eastern MN and NW WI by 18 WED....PWS really crank up 1.00 to 1.25 inches across the area...Looks like some heavy rainfall is going to be possible....Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe as they push across the FA...I didn't add strong or severe wording to the FA attm...Still plenty of time to revisit this...Also way to early to be jumping the gun on this event...
Rest of the FCST cycle did run with showers right through the end of this time frame as it is nearly impossible to time these systems in the NW flow....

Fast forecast this morning....

Fast forecast this morning...If time allows later today I will have a detailed forecast...
One thing that does not look for the area...Temps....Temps are forecasted to drop like a rock back to below normal values once again this weekend....
First off lets talk about today....
We are starting the day under clear skies,however satellite showing a large deck of clouds over in MN...This clouds will be drifting into the area as we slowly go through this long Friday....
Rain chances will be on the increase mainly over my Western Counties....Will move rain chances Eastwards this evening...Looks like showers and a few thunderstorms could be possible later this afternoon....Highly unlikely thunderstorms will become severe,however we will have to watch my far Southern parts of the FA for the slim chance of strong to severe storms...Main threat if thunderstorms do get grumpy down there,would be some hail and gusty winds....Thunderstorms would be on the lower end of the severe thresholds...Highs today will still remain warm...60s to around 70s or so..Tonight temps dive into the 30s,as CAA really cranks up...Temps could be cold enough for some light snow mixing in if not changing over to all snow over my Northern Counties...
Saturday.....
Will be a cold raw day across the FA...Highs just making it into the 50s...With off and on rain showers...Still may see some rain mixed with snow across my Northern Counties early in the morning.....Rain should push East of the FA by late afternoon...Saturday night....Temps revisit the 30s once again....If skies clear out frost would be possible in my Northern Counties,along with my colder spots in my Central Counties......Sunday looks sunny,temps warm back close to 60....Sunday night under clear to partly cloudy skies temps drop back into the 30s...Thinking is Sundy night might be the night we will have to widespread frost.....Temps slowly warm back up next week...With off and chances of showers and thunderstorms....Highs 60s and lows in the 40 seems the best way to run......
Again if time allows later today,I will have a in depth forecast discussion.....

More pictures on these blogs..

Forgot to say this in my other post....For more pictures of this event across WI and Northeast MN/NW WI check out these blogs...Tim's blog for the NE MN,and Derek's blog for his pictures at his place...

Website is now updating for the may 5th chase pictures.

Most of my chase pictures from yesterday are going on my website as I type this..I'd say give it about 1/2 or so for my site to update......

strong to severe thunderstorms possible once again today.

More showers and thunderstorms will be possible today...Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe once again..Main threat from thunderstorms would be large hail once again,along with some gusty winds...H5 temps are cold enough for hailers along with steep lapse rates..Limiting factor for severe thunderstorms would br wind shear,as it doesn't really look that good attm...

Chase pictures

These 2 are from Barron County..I will have more tomorrow,mainly on my website!

These are from Polk County..

Here are just a few of my chase pictures from today..I will have the rest on my website tomorrow...

05/05/09 chase log...

Chase account for 05/05/2009....Pictures will be posted tomorrow...

This morning chasing was the last thing I had on my mind...I was watching the radar and saw thunderstorms forming just NE of the Twin Cities...Grabbed my Cameras and headed for SW Polk County/NW ST.Croix County...Got off and on hail with the storms as I followed them East/Northeast...Got by Clayton and got hailed on big time..Ground was white, biggest hail I saw was nickel size..Called the NWS @ about 3:30 PM....Here's part of the warning....AT 330 PM CDT.NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR CLAYTON.SEVERE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SIGHTLY.BUT SOME HAIL IS STILL LIKELY.PEOPLE IN BARRON & RUSK COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLEADDITIONAL WARNINGS.Followed the cell/cells into and through Barron County...More hail ground was white East of Barron over to Cameron...Also North of Prairie Farm....My neighbor told me the ground was white with 1 inch hail here....The hail in Central and Southern Barron County was only dime size and smaller...Maybe a few nickels stones,I didn't stop to check......
Here is a list of the warnings this afternoon...
1....WIC005-033-095-109-052030-/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090505T2030Z/POLK WI-BARRON WI-ST. CROIX WI-DUNN WI-312 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDTFOR NORTHWESTERN DUNN.NORTHEASTERN ST. CROIX.SOUTHWESTERN BARRONAND SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES.AT 310 PM CDT.RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATEDNEAR CLEAR LAKE.& MOVING NE AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STRINGSTORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN STAR PRAIRIE & CLEAR LAKE.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE.CLAYTON.JOEL & TURTLELAKE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGEHAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE & STAY AWAY FROMWINDOWS.DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY.A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF ATORNADO IS SPOTTED.ACT QUICKLY & MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN ASTURDY STRUCTURE.SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.2...WIC005-033-095-109-052042-/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090505T2030Z/POLK WI-BARRON WI-ST. CROIX WI-DUNN WI-335 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DUNN.NORTHEASTERN ST. CROIX.SOUTHWESTERN BARRON & SOUTHEASTERN POLKCOUNTIES EXPIRED AT 330 PM CDT.AT 330 PM CDT.NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR CLAYTON.SEVERE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SIGHTLY.BUT SOME HAIL IS STILL LIKELY.PEOPLE IN BARRON & RUSK COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLEADDITIONAL WARNINGS.3....THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR. S. BARRON COUNTY IN NW WI.* UNTIL 445 PM CDT* AT 351 PM CDT.RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NW OF PRAIRIE FARM.OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF AMERY.AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE. PRAIRIE FARM. HILLSDALE. BARRON. RICE LAKE. CHETEK. CAMERON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGEHAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE & STAY AWAY FROMWINDOWS.4....WIC005-052145-/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090505T2145Z/BARRON WI-410 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDTFOR S. BARRON COUNTY.AT 409 PM CDT.RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED4 MILES NO. OF PRAIRIE FARM.& MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE.HILLSDALE.DALLAS.BARRON.CHETEK & CAMERON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGEHAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE & STAY AWAY FROMWINDOWS.DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY.A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF ATORNADO IS SPOTTED.ACT QUICKLY & MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN ASTURDY STRUCTURE.SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.I do have pictures of a forming wall cloud ...for the warning above...
5....WIC005-052145-/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090505T2145Z/BARRON WI-429 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDTFOR CNTL BARRON COUNTY.AT 428 PM CDT.RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL & DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESSOF 60 MPH. THE SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLSDALE.& MOVINGEAST AT 15 MPH.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE.CAMERON & CHETEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FORDAMAGING WINDS & LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDYSTRUCTURE & STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Forecast stands/plus a reminder to severe weather thresholds

Will leave FCST stand as all seems to be right on target...See below...Current conditions and SFC Analysis will not be right....
Thunderstorms that are in the FCST are not FCSTD to be severe....If we do get some more SFC heating going..Some thunderstorms may produce some small hail,along with gusty winds...However storms should remain below severe weather thresholds..A reminder the hail threshold now stands at 1 inch!!....Any hail less than one 1 inch the storm is not severe in terms of hail...Thresholds for wind still stands at 58 MPH..

My AFD

Forecast for the most part was left alone..Did some tweaking to the temps and also brought rain chance into the FCST for Monday night...Kept showers and thunderstorms alive right through the weekend and into the extended OTLK...As shortwaves will be hard to time during this period....Am going to keep temps in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows through out a good part of this whole FCST cycle....Looks like a great day to get the family out in the yard, for those who haven't started yard work yet..Then to end the day with a cook out...Just tell me when dinner will be ready!..

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning are looking rather nice...Lower to middle 40s through out much of the FA,some upper 30s still to be had across my colder areas of Northern MN...Looking at the 1 KM satellite image we see clear skies across the area...Winds are a lot lighter this morning...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning weather is staring a 1016 MB high pressure over the Northern plains...One weak trof is now over the Eastern part of WI ,this will have no effect on our weather today...Problems with severe thunderstorms still on going over parts of the TX into the Deep South this morning along a FNTL BNDRY...A 1015 MB high pressure sitting over the New England states will ensure them folks a nice Sunday.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

SFC high pressure builds into the FA through this time frame, setting us up for two nice sunshine filled days..Also warmer temps,As the high pushes off to our South/Southeast this will set up a return flow which will allow for WAA to kick in also will see some moisture move back into the area Monday afternoon....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...

Our first in many of shortwaves starts to provide showers and thunderstorms to the FA Mon night..Have kept the highest chances in my Northern areas of MN as this is where the best though weak forcing is setting up...This systems takes it's sweet time moving through Mon with more showers and thunderstorms....None of these thunderstorms are FCSTD to be severe....Tues Low pulls into Canada this drags a cold front into and through the area,more less a wind shift line,nevertheless this should lead to more showers and thunderstorms for the area...Yet another system in the cards for Thur and again the weekend...Like stated above these systems will be hard to time as models still have a rather large spread to them...So I just painted the whole FA with showers and thunderstorms....


LONGER TERM....

Looks to a be a active period with bouts of showers and thunderstorms....

Lake Superior's effect on the weather..

How does Lake Superior effect the temps around the lake? many have asked this through last few weeks..The one who would know this better is Tim since he lives up there,However since I spend a lot of my free time on and around Lake Superior I will take a stab at it.....
Ok one has to remember Lake Superior is the deepest fresh body of water in the area...With the lake being over 1000 plus feet deep in spots..Most around 400 to 600 feet deep...That is a lot of cold water for the sun to heat...All lakes are always changing,however one will notice that up on or near the shore of Lake Superior...When the winds blow off the lake to the shore areas it is picking up all that cold air the lake has to offer..Hence this keep the temps down near the shore...There have been many times when I was 15 to 20 miles away from the lake and the temps were in the 90s...Once you get within 2 to 10 miles the temps dropped into the 50s/60s depending on how strong the wind is off the lake...This will at time cause a very thick fog bank to move into parts of that area..Now the same hold true in the winter....Temps on and near Lake Superior are warmer than down here...Reason is cold winds blowing over the warmer air of the lake does warm up some...Also this can produce a lot of LES is the fletch is just right along with the delta's...I will hit that topic harder towards next winter...Was it strange many time being up in Duluth on the big hill temps were nice and hot...Drive down the hill instant cold..If one never had the chance to see that first hand,I tell you it's the one thing you will never forgot in your life time...Now some have asked does Lake Superior have any effect on our weather here in Barron County....Well it sure does,just not to the degree it has one gets past Minong....Our temps really don't get effected by the lake...It's more of the moisture..Winds flowing on the lake just right can bring down drier air into the area...No moisture left by time the air makes it this far South..All it takes is a large ridge of high pressure sitting close to Hudson Bay Canada...This mainly happens in the spring and fall for this Barron County...Now in the winter we can get some LES this far South again it all depends on the fletch off the lake and how much moisture is left..As rule we needed to have very cold temps down here for that to happen and the winds have to just at the right degree to have LES...Now we won't see inches or feet,but we could see flurries or a dusting of snow from such event...Ok that's my stab at it...Like I said before Tim knows this better than me..So Tim add to this..Correct me if I'm wrong on any of this...

AFD

Inherited FSCT looks to be right on track...I did tweak temps up some,That was about it....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning starting out in the lower to middle 30s...Some returns showing up on the radar,mainly over my far Northern WI Counties,along with my Northeastern Counties..Satellite showing that area locked under clouds this morning...Rest of the FA under ptly cldy skies.....

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning we see a cdfnt through the Southern tier of Canada....FA remain under the pesky cyclonic flow once again today...Large ridge of high pressure is located over the Northern Plains this morning...Meantime a cdfnt reaches from TX up through Southern PA....Showers and thunderstorms shall be had along and ahead of ahead of this bndry..Some storms could become severe in them areas....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

With our FA under the cyclonic flow and very cold temps aloft little SFC will kick of more instby showers..Pattern just about the same as yesterday...Some mixing down will cause temps to a couple degrees warming today...Winds up North in MN could become rather gusty through out the day...up to 25 MPH at times...Rest of the FA should see winds gusting up to 20 MPH.From the W/NW....CDFNT will ease through the areas tonight ending rain chances...This will also allow for skies to become ptly cldy..Winds will lighten up as pressure grads decrease....

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

High pressure take control of the FA with early strong May sun,along with winds becoming South this will help bring temps into the 60s most areas...I have bumped temps up some to reflect this...I still may have to go higher in the Southern areas,as latest guidance's showing temps closer to 70 in them areas....For now will stay the coarse..

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase,as we see some systems moving along the Canadian border...Timing on these aren't going to be easy,nevertheless I did paint the whole FA with showers and thunderstorms through out the period...Temps shall stay in the 60s for the most part..Will be cooler around the shores of Lake Superior...40s/50s should work out fine there.....

LONG TERM.....

I did leave it stand for the most part...I did add a chance of showers/thunderstorms in for Sunday...If the system picks up a little more speed may have to add chances to Saturday's fcst...