Thursday, May 28, 2009

strong to severe thunderstorms possbile Sunday

This forecast will mainly deal with the strong/severe thunderstorms chances for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening....

Most of the FA has cleared out nicely this morning..Still some clouds hanging around in my Southern zones...Satellite image showing a band of clouds out over in MN along a cold front..This front is FCSTD to come through dry....Temps should warm back to norms today.....Friday...We see yet another weak front push through the area...NAM/GFS still hinting at some ISO showers and t-storms...Thinking is the chances of that happening in the FA will be small...Main show should be over parts of IA/IL/into Southern WI....Temps do cool back into the upper 60s to lower 70s for Friday and Saturday...PTLY CLDY skies seem to be the way to run for Saturday as a weak high pressure will be over head....

Now onto the main story for this FCST cycle..Sunday.....
Strong CDFNT is forecasted to push into the FA late Sunday afternoon..Models have been slowing this down a tad...Never the less the FNT should push through during prime time heating.Temps on Sunday should hit the middle 70s...Dewpoints increase up to 55 to 60....LIFTED INDEX does make it to around -2 to -3.5 or so...The combination of all of that and wind shear...Should be enough to set off some strong to severe thunderstorms through out the FA.....Main threat would be large hail giving the upper level thermal temps,along with damaging winds....May see an ISO tornado....However right not I'm not to thrilled about that...Am going to wait to see what the next few models runs show....Nevertheless Sunday late afternoon/evening is looking more interesting around here....We shall find out soon enough...

Longer term...

Dry period from Monday through Wednesday...As if we didn't see that one coming....Temps in the lower 70s for highs and middle to upper 40s for lows.....