My AFD

Forecast for the most part was left alone..Did some tweaking to the temps and also brought rain chance into the FCST for Monday night...Kept showers and thunderstorms alive right through the weekend and into the extended OTLK...As shortwaves will be hard to time during this period....Am going to keep temps in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows through out a good part of this whole FCST cycle....Looks like a great day to get the family out in the yard, for those who haven't started yard work yet..Then to end the day with a cook out...Just tell me when dinner will be ready!..

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning are looking rather nice...Lower to middle 40s through out much of the FA,some upper 30s still to be had across my colder areas of Northern MN...Looking at the 1 KM satellite image we see clear skies across the area...Winds are a lot lighter this morning...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning weather is staring a 1016 MB high pressure over the Northern plains...One weak trof is now over the Eastern part of WI ,this will have no effect on our weather today...Problems with severe thunderstorms still on going over parts of the TX into the Deep South this morning along a FNTL BNDRY...A 1015 MB high pressure sitting over the New England states will ensure them folks a nice Sunday.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

SFC high pressure builds into the FA through this time frame, setting us up for two nice sunshine filled days..Also warmer temps,As the high pushes off to our South/Southeast this will set up a return flow which will allow for WAA to kick in also will see some moisture move back into the area Monday afternoon....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...

Our first in many of shortwaves starts to provide showers and thunderstorms to the FA Mon night..Have kept the highest chances in my Northern areas of MN as this is where the best though weak forcing is setting up...This systems takes it's sweet time moving through Mon with more showers and thunderstorms....None of these thunderstorms are FCSTD to be severe....Tues Low pulls into Canada this drags a cold front into and through the area,more less a wind shift line,nevertheless this should lead to more showers and thunderstorms for the area...Yet another system in the cards for Thur and again the weekend...Like stated above these systems will be hard to time as models still have a rather large spread to them...So I just painted the whole FA with showers and thunderstorms....


LONGER TERM....

Looks to a be a active period with bouts of showers and thunderstorms....