Fall or Spring ? AFD below

A rather raw cold weekend on tap for the Northwood's..Forecast problems..Rain/snow today...Than frost tonight and tomorrow night....Than showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday...And showers through out the extended FCST cycle....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps starting out on the cool side this morning thanks to a CDFNT that slammed through the area last evening....Temps in the lower 40s to middle to upper 30s are found through out the whole FA...Winds rather gusty this morning out of the North...Won't even talk about wind chills....However it does feel more like a fall day than a spring day....Large areas of clouds blankets the area...Some breaks are notes in a few spots,however them should be filling in within time....Radar showing some lgt rain over parts of WI,and MN at this hour....Over in Warroad MN lgt snow is being reported..Is this May or Nov?

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a low pressure system over Southeast WI...We also see a couple of short-waves one over ND while the other is just North into Canada..High pressure up over Saskatchewan Canada....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Today will be the problem day.....Short-waves forecasted to move into and through the area...This will keep the chances of rain alive today...Some of the rain may mix with snow,mainly up North...Were 1/4 to as much as a 1/2 inch may fall...Would not be shocked to see some rain mixing with snow through out the rest of the FA this morning....Highs will be running below norms today through Sunday.....Tonight was thinking about leaving in a very small chance of precip to account for sprinkles/flurries....
Sunday...Still clod for this time of year...Did run with MSTLY CLDY skies... Frost is possible tonight and once again Sunday night,Limiting factors to the frost would be the amount of clearing that takes place,and how strong the winds remain...

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....

WAA kicks back into play out ahead of the next system to effect the area...Temps will be warmer than this weekend....High pressure slips of to the East/Southeast return flows becomes more evident,as Southerly winds kick.Did run with MSTLY CLR. Skies...Did entertain the idea about adding some low chance of showers and thunderstorms out in my Western Counties of MN.but didn't..Still have time make that call later if needed....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Here is where things get rather interesting..What is rather remarkable is that ECMWF and GFS are seeing just about eye to eye on this low pressure and strong CDFNT....DWPNTS increase to around 50 or so In MN Tuesday,than across WI Tuesday afternoon/Evening....Lapse Rates increase to around 7.5 C/KM to 8.5 C/KM through Western MN Tuesday night this will also build into Central and Eastern MN and NW WI by 18 WED....PWS really crank up 1.00 to 1.25 inches across the area...Looks like some heavy rainfall is going to be possible....Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe as they push across the FA...I didn't add strong or severe wording to the FA attm...Still plenty of time to revisit this...Also way to early to be jumping the gun on this event...
Rest of the FCST cycle did run with showers right through the end of this time frame as it is nearly impossible to time these systems in the NW flow....