The Weather Center's forecast area mapped

Ok to make this a little easier we decided to show you a break down of the FA...All this info is on the map also... The red outlined area is our forecast area...Now when we are talking West to East this how the FA breaks down... The area between the red line and black line is our Western zones...From the black line to the green line is our Central zones...Our Eastern zones run from the green line to red line,which for some unknown reason didn't get typed in,however is marked by the arrows....
Ok Now when we are talking North to South,or South to North here is how the FA is broke down...Between the red and blue lines is our Northern zones.. Between the blus and purple lines is our Central zones.....Last but no leat between the purple and red lines is our Southern zones...

Click on map for bigger size...

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems today…Snow, LES, Winds, and Temps..


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS as of 9 AM… Most stations are reporting light snow… Temps range from the middle 30s in my Eastern FA to the middle 20s in me Central and Western areas….Winds are West/Northwest around 10 MPH with gusts up to 26 MPH…Radar showing a large area of light snow throughout the FA…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

A rather strong low pressure system is centered over Northwestern WI this morning. Pressure reading on the low is around the 996 MBS.. Cold front slices my FA in half this morning …Running from Bayfield through Sawyer, Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau Claire Counties… Shows up rather well on the SFC OBS and Satellite imagery… Light rain showers have switched over to snow throughout my Central and Western parts of the FA, meanwhile light rain/drizzle out ahead of the cold front… Those areas should be switching over to all snow within an hour or two…. WV satellite imagery shows some left over moisture throughout the area, CAA will wring that out today, plus with the help of the low pressure moving away and a weak trof dropping South this will aid in the snow…Should see 1-2 inches in my Central, and Northern areas, close to an inch in my far Southern area….Temps today will either remain steady to slowly falling…. Note temps have been falling here at the office over the last few hours…..Winds will begin to pick up as pressure gradients increase between the low that is forecasted to deepen to around 994 MBS today as it slowly pulls away and, to a 1036 MBS high pressure to our West/Northwest…Winds should be around the 15 to 23 MPH range with gusts up to around 30 MPH, this will lead to some blow and drifting of the newly snowfall… Up North LES in my snow belts will crank up as winds switch to the Northwest and North..The higher terrains could pick up 2 to 5 inches of snow on top of what they have, today through tonight…. Tonight will keep a chance of light snow going as the low pressure is still close enough and the trof dropping South through the area.. Still should see enough wrap around moisture pulled into the area… Lows tonight shall fall into the middle teens with winds become lighter. Wednesday the low move towards Hudson Bay, this should take the snow out of the FA… May see flurries from time to time… Highs shall be right around 20 or so…Lows falling into the single digits… We will have to watch that if we get clearing sooner we may have to drop the temps even more… Thursday the area will be under a 1024 MBS high pressure system/ridge… This will allow for skies to Partly cloudy to sunny… Will keep highs right around 20…. Lows Thursday night may have to be adjusted down from the middle single digits to lower single digits… Will worry about later..Friday 1028 MB high pressure is forecasted to over MN this will keep us high and dry… Will stay with the flow in the temps dept…Highs right around 20…

***LONG TERM FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 3RD - Thursday DEC 16TH ***

Ok lets start off with talking about the GFS model…. GFS has the are under a ridge of high pressure through Friday night.. it does start to track a 1009 MB low pressure toward the FA early Sat morning. Then over towards Chicago area late Saturday night…GFS has much warmer air with this system compared to the other models, which would give us an over running scenario leading towards a mix of bag of precip… For now Am going to disregard GFS….
Lets look at the ECMWF model….This model has colder air in place throughout the FA and the track of the system would place the FA in an all snow event.. Still not thrilled about accumulations this far out, however we will watch…. Both models do agree on another cold dump late next weekend…After that looks like off and on snow chances doesn’t look to be anything big as of right now… Temps will remain close to norms throughout the FA cycle….

Heavy snow pictures

@ 4:15 rain has changed over to heavy wet snow.... Looking at the RCU model we should see this snow change back over to rain/sleet/snow mix.... I still don't think most of the forecast area will see much more than an inch... North of Barron, Polk, and Rusk Counties have a better chance at seeing 1 to 5 inches of snow.....I was playing around with the settings on the camera for these pictures..

Using snow boards

Last time we talked about how we at The Weather Center use the snow gauge..(that post can be found by following this link) http://dirksforecastingcenter.blogspot.com/2010/11/how-we-measure-snowfall.html .…
Today we will talk about how we our snow boards….

First before the first snowfall is excepted we put our three snow boards….. The boards themselves are 16” x16 X ¾” .(one can use any size)….The boards are painted white so the snowfall won’t melt, as white reflects any sunlight… You will want to put the snow boards in an area that is out of the wind and without any tall trees that could drop snow onto the boards… Ok both of them will be hard to do, so that is way we use three boards…. You will also want to mark the location with a stake, makes it easier to find the boards..
Picture below shows the snow board and stake...

The picture below shows us taking our readings... I like to take 3 or 4 readings off of each board.Reason for this is any drifting snow....A yard stick is the best way to go for bigger storm systems... 12 inch ruler works for any snowfall less than that..

We do record each reading, not showing in this... Ok after we get our readings we clean the board.Have to make sure you get all the snow and any ice on the board off..For this snowfall a brush was all that was needed....There will be many times you will a shovel...

Picture below shows the end results and a snow board ready for the next snowfall... All these steps are done for each snow board....

After all is said and done back into the office then we avg out the readings between the three snow boards... If the that reading matches up with the snow gauge we are done for now,if not then we will also avg in the snow gauge reading to come up with the snowfall amount....Now the biggest thing is how often to one has to do this...For us that will depend on the snow rates per hr...Or how heavy the snow is falling....One can even wait till the storm is over....Each time we get our avg reading we mark that down and keep marking it down until the storm is over,then we add that all up to get our total snowfall amounts....Yes most of the time we do call our snowfalls into the NWS then we follow that up with our grand total of the snow event..... I know that was very fast show and tell on how we do our snowfall amounts..... (click on pictures to see a bigger one)

Happy Thanksgiving

The Weather Center wishes everyone a Happy Thanksgiving... Hope you all have a great day/weekend with your family and friends.... Stay safe and warm!
Forecast is below this post....

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI

 One word to sum up most of the long Thanksgiving weekend.... Cold....Winds will also be a problem for today and tonight...Then a warming trend for the end of the weekend into early next week… Also the next storm system looks to be another problem. Then another Arctic dump…. Lets hash it all out shall we….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps have dived into the lower to middle teens with a few stations reporting single digits…. Here at the office we have dropped to 8° while Osceola is holding at a lonely 9°… Remarkably temp at Ladysmith still holding onto the lower 20s… 22° right now, and up in Ashland the temp is a warm 28°.. Winds have been rather strong this morning ranging from 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH… Superior is reporting a wind gusts of 28 MPH Eau Claire coming in at 24 MPH…. Wind have switched to the West for the most part… Windchills range from +16° to – 8°…. Skies are mostly cloudy throughout much of the FA.... However looking at the vis satellite imagery we see a very sharp clearing line running from Bayfield County South through Southeaster Washburn County through Central Barron County then down Though Southeastern 1/3 of ST. Croix County(as of 7:56 AM)…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS***
Arctic cold front is now pushing through the FA will defined on the vis satellite imagery and SFC OBS.. Temps have been falling rather fast behind the cold front… Clear skies this morning shall fill back in as the upper level low over SD pushes Northeast…. Moisture is well East of the FA, however as the upper level pulls Northeast it should wrap some moisture back into area so clouds should increase once again and there may even be a shot at some light snow/flurries this afternoon… Best areas to see this would be in my Northern FA… Temps today won’t climb much… In fact look for falling temps in my Eastern areas as the Arctic cold front pushes through… Should see temps hold close to where they are now… May see a few degrees warmer…. Winds will remain strong today making it feel colder looking for wind chills to be from -5 to – 15 or so….. Winds could gusts as high as 25 to 28 MPH at times throughout the area…. Tonight temps are going to be a problem…. If we can get skies to clear back off and get the winds to drop off this would set the stage for temps to fall well below zero over the fresh snow pack.. For now will run with temps from -3 to +5 ..If needed the Short term update can cover the temps trend this evening….. Tomorrow I’m going to trim the temps downwards from the model guidance, as I think they are to warm calling for upper teens to lower 20s… Thinking is with a rather good snow pack and a deeper snow pack towards out Northwest, along with winds blowing over the snow pack temps won’t warm that high…. Will also depend on what happens tonight with the temps… Saturday through Sunday models been rather bullheaded about warming the temps well into the middle 20s and the lower 30s,not sure if I can buy into that just yet…. Middle 20s I could giving the strong WAA forecasted to kick in but still with a snow pack over MN, and the FA. This will help hold the SFC temps down…. Sunday night we see clouds back on the increase with our next trouble maker… Lets talk about that….

Looking at the ECMWF model…
Sunday we see a 998 MB low taken shape over NV this low races into Northern KS/Southern NE and deepens to around 991 MBS… By Monday night the low is forecasted to been in Western WI, and weakens to around 1001 MBS… As a rule a track like this would part my Northwestern FA in the snow area, however just like the last few systems… Temps upstairs are forecasted to be warm enough for a wintery mix on Monday throughout the FA… By Monday night we see temps aloft drop so mix precip would be changing over to all snow…. The track still is not set in stone, along with how fast moisture can return…. So am not going to get carried away on this just yet….

Looking at the GFS model….
Not much to say as it seems to agree with ECMWF with the track and timing of the storm system right now…. Both Models also agree on bring down another shot of Arctic air, we will have to watch this as that may be colder then the shot of cold air we are dealing with right now…..

Short term forecast number 3

Mod to heavy snow still falling at 5:19 pm So far in parts of Northern Barron County 3 inches of snow gas fallen,also here @ The Weather Center we have picked up 3 inches of snow as of this writing... Elsewhere light snow has began to mix with light freezing rain/drizzle... Over the next few hrs look for the snow to becoming lighter and slowly turn to flurries...This will hold true with the rest of the precip also....Looks like forecasted storm totals have/will pan out rather well... This may be the last short term forecast on this storm system,unless things change...

Short term forecast number 2

@ 4:00 PM heavy snow still falling here at The Weather Center.... In the City of Rice Lake it's self light snow falling.... Snow should become lighter across my Central/Central and Southern areas... Snow should start to mix with light freezing drizzle in them areas... North of a line from Balsam Lake over to Canton and just North of Ladysmith... Snow still should hold it's own in these areas,may be some sleet from time to time,however excepting all snow for the most part... Still looking at a storm total of 2 to 5 inches of snow.... South of this line 1 to2 maybe a 3 inch report....

Forecast stands/plus short term forecast number1

Going to leave ongoing forecast stand,everything is lining up rather well.... See snowfall amounts in forecast below... Will stay with that....
***SHORT TERM FORECAST***
Very heavy snow falling here at the office...So far we got 1.00" within a rather fast time vis down to less than 1/8 mile...Blowing snow is also a problem....

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Flurries that are around this morning should move on out setting a rather brisk day in the Northwoods… Problem remains with the storm system for Wednesday through Thursday…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At the 9 AM hr we find mostly to cloudy skies across the FA temps are in the lower teens, still see light snow/flurries being reporting in the SFC OBS… Winds are mainly out of the West from 7 to 14 MPH with some stations reporting gusts up to 20-22 MPH…Windchills this morning are ranging from -1 to +4….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

Lets take care of today and tonight really fast before we talk about major headache…

Today weak high pressure if you want to call it that will take control of our weather…This morning clouds/light snow/flurries should becoming to an end rather soon… Also we do see breaks in the clouds on the VIS satellite imagery… So see no reason why not to run with partly cloudy Skies The RUC model 700 and 850 MB RH fields yielding the same results in the afternoon… Highs today rather chilly lower 20s seen plauseable… Tonight clouds will be on the increase,still should be long enough time in the clear skies to allow temps to fall into the single digits…

Now for the problematic system….

GFS and NAM still faster then ECMWF with all aspects of the storm… So this does not help the confidence levels at all….Lets just go right ahead and break this right down into each model and this way it will show you what we are trying to work out,and why this forecast is one big pain….
First off lets look at the ECMWF model…We see a 999 MB SFC low pressure system in the four corners area…Low is forecasted to move into the OK/TX panhandle areas…. Then the low is forecasted to move Northeast right through Western WI to just North of Lake Superior by Thursday/Thursday early evening….Now ECMWF shows the dry slot moving into the area sometime Wednesday night/early Thursday morning…This only makes the forecast harder…
Lets talk about the GFS model…
GFS has the storm system a little stronger and the track is a little more Westwards through the Western part of MN also moves this system along rather fast… GFS has the dry slot pushing into the area late afternoon or early Wednesday evening…Which is a good 6 HRS faster the ECMWF model….Which would shut down the precip faster for my FA… Ok lets Look at the NAM model…Nam has the storm system even more West the GFS does, however timing is rather close on it, along with the timing of the dry slot…Now lets really complicate things….
Models are forecasting severe thunderstorms to fire up in MO,IL,KS,OK,and AR,this will rob some of the moisture flowing Northwards into the FA…Though moisture is forecasted to lift into the FA around Wednesday early afternoon… Now what type of precip to run with… At the SFC temps temps would be cold enough for snow,however aloft temps warm enough for rain/mixed precip….this would most likely happen right from the get go as precip starts…Once we get some evaporation cooling going freezing rain should change over to all snow from a line from North of Balsam Lake over to Canton and to the North of Ladysmith… This will be the area that will have the best shot at seeing the highest snowfall amounts….Will discuss that in awhile..Meanwhile South of said line the precip is forecasted to remain a wintery mix throughout much of the time frame,by time temps aloft cool South of said line the dry slot would have worked into that area,not allowing for much time for snow….However should see close to an inch of snow in this area…
Will run with storm totals as this for now…..
North of a line from Balsam Lake,Canton,to North of Ladysmith total storm totals from 2 to 4 inches… While South of this line 1 to 2 inches…….
Will leave the long range forecast stand as it is… To many problems in the short term forecast to try to switch the long term forecast around…. So will update that at a later time…

Forecast will stand for now

Am going to let the forecast Wednesday and Thursday stand for tonight before making any big changes to it... Though models have been showing more of a North and west track,timing is on big factor they do not agree upon... The placement is not set in stone either... If the forecasted track stands in todays runs... This would be my Central and Sounthern areas will see a wintery mix as more warmer air would be wrapped up in the system with maybe an inch or two   of snow... Points in Northern Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties would 2 to 4 inches... More North would be higher amounts..
Another storm system could effect the area early next week... Looks to be about the same thing with this system... More on that tomorrow also...

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast problems…. Freezing light rain and drizzle throughout the rest of the day with snow mixing in later… Snow chances of Monday and again for mid week…. Temps will become problematic throughout the upcoming short work week…. Then a warm up in store for the holiday weekend ?before more cold air dives South….. Lots to talk about so we best better stop wasting time and get right into the heart of things…


***NOTE***
Back roads are very slick this morning along with sidewalks and overpasses… If you are going to be out and bout allow yourself some extra time and slow down….

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At this 9 AM hr we find the FA locked under clouds/patchy fog with areas of very light freezing rain and drizzle…. Temps hanging in the upper 20s to lower 30s… Winds are out of the East/Southeast ranging from 5 to 12 MPH…

***FORECAST ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION***
Problems for today through Monday… First off how long to keep the freezing light rain and drizzle going … SFC trof still has yet to move the FA until this does light wintery mix will be possible throughout the day… SFC temps downstream have been warming into the 30s.. I do except to see that throughout the FA within the next few hrs…. May not happen as fast in my Northern FA…. Roads should start to get better once temps hit 32° and above… Profiles still showing warm air above the SFC, however some cooling does take place…. If that happens we could see so snow mixing in with the wintery mix…. Not excepting much in away of accumulations….. Highs today should reach for the middle to upper 30s…. Tonight Trof moves out of the area, this should take the precip with it…..Lows tonight under cloudy skies should fall into the upper 20s…. With that all said we are also watching a system that will give us some snow on Monday…1001 MB low pressure over CO is forecasted to move Northeast rather fast into far Northeast WI/UP MI by Monday late morning…. 700 MB heights shows enough cold air in place to be a light snow event…. 850 MB heights showing about the same, however some warm air looks to be moving into my very far Southern/Southeastern parts of the FA… This could set the stage down there for another light freezing rain event…
Snow accumulations for Monday… I’m still thinking 1 to 2 inches will be possible…. Highs on your Monday upper 20s to lower 30s… Monday night light snow should becoming to an end.. May even see some breaks in the cloud cover… Lows middle to upper teens…. If clouds break up we may have to lower temps a few more degrees….. Tuesday we get a break in the action as the cold front will have pushed far enough South/Southeast… NAM shows a 1028 MB high pressure system building into the area so will run with partly cloudy skies per 700 MB RH charts…. Highs will top off in the lower 20s….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY 23RD THROUGH TUESDAY DEC 7TH***
We are still having some problems in the first part of this forecast cycle, as far as timing and placement issues of a possible winter storm over Wednesday/thanksgiving day…..
So for right now going to run with the same was I did yesterday…. Though there are signs of this system slowing down as its deepens over WI this could cause problems into Thursday night before the snow ends….
Still thinking most of my FA will see accumulating snows from Wednesday late day through Thanksgiving day… My thinking with the models data I have right in front of me ATTM is a good 6 to 12 inches of snow is possible, with higher amounts along my LES belts of Lake Superior… Am still going to hold off on putting a map out as confidence levels aren’t really high just yet…… Another problem is the Arctic air poised to move into the area.. As of right now I’m not going to run with below zero temps for Thursday night unless clouds clear out, right now looks like they may hold strong with some snow still around… If models keep slowing this system down…. Still temps will be cold with highs in the upper teens for Thanksgiving day and middle teens for Friday…. Will run will lows in the middle single digits for now….. Now models have changed the song for the weekend… Show 850 MB temps right around 0c… Problem here is I don’t think they are taken into account the possible fresh snow pack…. So for now I’m not buying into this…. Thinking is temps should remain in the upper teens and lower 20s… That is if we get a good snow pack… So as one can see there are few things that are going to throw forecast out into the back forty…..Next chance at snow moves in for Nov 30th and Dec 1st and again Dec 3rd /Dec 4th time frame, as a few clipper like systems move through… With each one colder air is forecasted behind each one….. So temps shall remain cold with off and on snow through the middle to end of the forecast cycle……

Forecast for Western & Northwestern WI

Weather headlines… Main story is the cold air that pushed into the area yesterday afternoon…Skies did remain clear for longer, so a thought temps took a hit last night…. Temps here at the office bottomed out at a only 7°… Problem number two…. Is the wintery mix and freezing rain, then snow on Monday, then snow again for Wednesday and Thanksgiving day… Things have changed over the last few computer runs once again… Now where back to a possible winter storm…. As models have slower and now deeper system moving through…Will talk about that in awhile…. Last but will be talked about is the Arctic blast that is set to move in after the departing storm system….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 7 AM hour temps are ranging from the lower to middle teens, a few calls and texts to some of our weather observers also show a few temps in the upper single digits….Skies are partly to mostly cloudy… Winds for the most part are out of the North/Northwest….. Windchills range from a lonely 2 here at the office to 10 in EAU….

***FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION***

Looking at the SFC charts off the NAM we find a 1036 MB high pressure system that is centered over Southern Canada just North of Central ND….This high has allowed for skies to remain clear long last night as talked about above… Said high is forecasted to move along the border of the USA and Canada today, should be centered just North of Central Northern MN by midday…As it pushes off to the East WAA slowly begins to kick back in… Clouds should start to thicken up more as we fly through the day…. However don’t see any precip as dry air still holding strong through the day….. Profiles aloft still show warmer temps, however down at the SFC temps still remain rather cold until Sunday afternoon when SFC temps do climb into the middle 30s…. What does this mean to us here at the SFC? Well I will tell you…. We shall see a wintery mix later tonight changing over to all freezing rain by Sunday morning…. This should change over to plain old rain in the early afternoon hrs.. By Sunday night the profiles show cooling taken place aloft this will allow for the rain to change back over to a wintery mix before changing over to all snow, after the cold front pushes through.. Little or no ice and snow accumulation… Though some roads could be on the slick side……Monday we see a little stronger system forming on the Southern part of the cold front.. This 1004 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into WI… System should have enough cold air to play with at the mid to upper levels and down at the SFC for an all snow event… 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible… However most of the heaver snowfall amount should be up in Douglas County, and into Northwestern Bayfield County… Here we could see 2 to maybe as much as 4 inches….Then we get a break in the action for Tuesday/Tuesday night

So the forecast for today… Clouds thicken up highs will remain cool middle 20s, North winds becoming Northeast around 5 to 10 MPH… Tonight… Cloudy with a wintery mix, lows should remain in the middle 20s,winds From the East becoming South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH…. Sunday… Freezing rain in the morning, turning to rain in the afternoon.. Highs in the lower to middle 30s South winds around 3 to 6 MPH….. Sunday night….. Rain chaging over to a wintery mix, then changing over to all snow… Lows in the middle 20s…. Monday… Cloudy with snow 1 to 2 inches possible… Higher amounts up in my far Northwestern FAs…. Tuesday and Tuesday night dry highs in the lower 20s with lows in the lower teens.

***THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION Wednesday NOV 24TH THROUGH MONDAY DEC 6TH ***

This forecast cycle still remains to be a pain, as forecast models are now singing a new song the last few runs, unlike most of the week….. There is some problems showing up for Wednesday through Thursday, main problem is the placement of the storm system and how deep to run with it…. Timing is not as bad on the past two runs…..Lets break it all down since this is a high travel period…

Looking at old reliable ECMWF model…. Late Tuesday night we see a 1001 MB low pressure taking shape over Northwestern CO… This low is forecasted to move into Southwestern IA/Northwestern MO by late Wednesday evening…Low deepens to around 994 MBS… The low is then forecasted to push through Central WI up into the UP of MI by late Thursday night, still we see more deepen… Down to around 990 MBS…It does appear this system will have enough cold air in place at all levels to be an all snow event…..I won’t get carried away just yet on putting out a snowfall map, however if things do play out we could be looking at 6 to 10 inches of snow high higher amounts closer to Lake Superior…. Will put out a snowfall map either tomorrow or Monday….

Ok let look at the GFS model… This model does track the storm system more East and is much weaker with it…. Timing however seems to line up rather well with the ECMWF model….So for now am going to disregard GFS as it does not do so well this far out in time…. However we will shall if it comes on board with ECMWF over the next few runs….If GFS is right this would put the heavier snows well to the East and South of the area…. Like discussed in earlier forecast…… So as of right now confidence levels are still rather low……. One thing both models do agree on… Is an Arctic dump that is setting up for the middle to the end of next week…. Still feel we will see our lows drop well below zero, if we do get a deep snow pack the lows could fall as cold as the teens below…. Highs will barley climb out of the single digits…. This cold trend is forecasted to last right through the end of the forecast cycle….

Also, this possible winter storm looks to be a wind jammer on the model…. Gales could return to Lake Superior!

The Forecast for Western and Northwestern WI...

Main weather headlines will be the Arctic blast that is set to impact the area next week… Also watching Saturday night through Monday for a few inches of snow…Good news is as of right now still no big winter storms for the area over the Thanksgiving holiday… Will get to all this in awhile….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
(2PM)
Temps have started their downward trend over the last HR as a cold front is pushing through the FA… Winds Have became rather gusty behind the SFC front 7 to 13 MPH with gusts in the 20 to close to 30 MPH range… Higher gusts found up around the Lake Superior area… Skies have become Partly cloudy most areas….

***FORECAST ANLYSIS & DISUSSION***

Problems for the rest of today through tonight… Will be the cloud cover Vis Satellite is showing the Western and Northwestern areas of the FA seeing some holes punching through, this trend should hold through the rest of afternoon… So partly cloudy skies will be ran in the forecast…. Cold front is now moving through my Western FAs… Temps should slowly start to fall as the front pushes through, though the main CAA is well behind said front….. Winds will start to pick up out of the West/Northwest, and be rather gusty for a time through the afternoon into the evening hrs…. Winds could gust to around 20 to 25 MPH …. Tonight the problem will be temps how cold to go… With the computer models in agreement with the next system moving in for the weekend clouds are forecasted to stream right back into the area…. So thinking is to run in the middle teens for low… However if we remain partly cloudy longer temps could easy fall into the lower teens…..

Looking at the ECMWF model…

A 1003 MB low pressure moving along the USA/Canada border shall push a cold front into the area this afternoon this front should clear my FA early this evening…However another system/shortwave will be moving along the border, this should bring in a wintery mix Saturday night.. We see a low pressure system taking place over CO tomorrow… Looks to be an inverted trof reaching Northwards from said low into the area…. 1000 MB low is forecasted to move into Northeastern KS by Sunday night then move Northeast through Central WI… This system will have a little more moisture to work with for Sunday and Monday… Mid level profiles showing this system to have enough warm air in the Mid to SFC level to give us a wintery mix from freezing rain/snow/sleet Sunday and Sunday night before the mix changes over to all snow for Monday…. Looks like a shot of 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible on Sunday night through Monday early afternoon…. We will have to watch this to see if more moisture can wrap into this system….. Once this low pull Northeast a strong cold front will slam into the area Monday late afternoon… We should see temps falling throughout the day…. Monday night’s temps will be tricky…Right now we will run with the middle teens, however if skies clear off we could be talking about lows in the upper single digits….From Tuesday through Thanksgiving temps go no where but down….. Tuesday temps in the lower 20s cooling off to around the middle teens by Thanksgiving day…. Lows start out toasty in the middle teens…Then cool into the single digits… Still looks like we should see our first below zero readings either Wednesday night or Thanksgiving night…. Models showing a weak system moving in for Wednesday this should bring in some light snows… The way it looks right now this system should remain well to our South and East….Will see what happens as we get closer to this time frame….

Still no big snowstorms forecasted for the area….

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Not really a bad looking for forecast in the short term and milled term next early next week… No winter storms in the books right through Thanksgiving. Though it will be getting colder next week.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 10 AM hr. Skies are partly cloudy to Sunny throughout the FA… Satellite confirms this…. Temps are in the lower to middle 30s…. Winds are out of the North/Northwest ranging from 7 to around 12 MPH… Ashland is reporting winds gusting up to 18 MPH… Despite the sunshine, winds are making the temps feel cooler… Windchill values are ranging from the lower 20s to upper 20s..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

996 MB lower pressure centered just Northwest of NY along with a SFC high pressure building into ND/SD in between is my FA winds today will remain out of the North/Northwest… Not looking for temps to warm a whole lot do to CAA and winds blowing over a rather deep snow pack to our North/Northwest…. Satellite is showing an area of clouds over MN this is forecasted to drift into the area today, this will also keep temps in check…. Highs mainly in the lower to middle 30s …. Low pressure system moving well North of the FA tonight through Thursday night is forecasted to bring a return flow and WAA into the area.. Tonight’s lows should bottom out in the upper teens to lower 20s.. However if we see more breaks in the cloud towards morning temps may fall more….Winds become South/Southeast tomorrow however temps will remain rather cool as WAA really doesn’t lick in until the evening hrs…. So will run temps in the lower 30s as there should be a few more clouds around…. Thursday night WAA cranks up under cloudy skies so thinking lows won’t be as cold with middle to upper 20s…… Friday looks to start warm, then temps should be falling as a cold front pushes into and through the area…. Winds are going to become a problem… Should see them switch from the South/Southwest to more of a West/Northwest in the morning hrs….. Winds will become rather strong 10 to 20 MPH, with gusts close to 30 MPH at times… Should find the higher gusts in our wind prone areas….. Temps in the middle 30s before falling in the afternoon…. Here is a problem for Friday night… Thinking is as of right now to run with temps in the middle teens, however if we get skies to clear off temps could easy fall into the lower teens… Also another player in the game shall be the snow pack, that’s if there is any left around the area or towards or Northwest….. That part may have to be adjusted in the short term forecast if needed…..

Saturday…. Temps should be in the lower 30s under mostly cloudy skies… Will bring a chance of light snow into the forecast for Saturday night as a low pressure system stays to our North.. Will run with a chance of light snow for Saturday night also, temps fall back into the middle to upper 20s… Sunday we could see some light rain mix in with the light snow from time to time… 996 MB is forecasted to take shape over Northwestern part of CO Sunday…. The low is forecasted to lift Northeast towards Door County WI, as it does the ECMWF weakens the low to 1003 MBS GFS model on the other hand shows the low moving more West…. Still looks like not a lot of moisture with this system.....Once again no winter storms in this forecast cycle…. Temps do get colder through next week as an Arctic air mass builds into the area…. We could see our first below zero readings coming in the middle/end of next week with highs in the lower teens……

Post winter storm of the 13 and 14 write up....

Just about the whole FA saw snowfall from this past winter storm... The highest amounts were reported over in MN and along with my far Northern Central areas, and throughout my Northern Northern areas... While place in my Southern area didn't see alot of snowfall due to warmer air being pulled into the system in the lower and middle layers this caused the snow to mix with and change over to all rain... This was the case in Rice Lake, while here at the office we did see some rain mix in with the snow it changed back over to snow rather fast....Sleet was also reported in areas throughout the FA.... First map below shows our snowfall forecast map...

The map below shows the over all snowfall amounts that were reported... There may have been higher amounts or lesser amounts... This is just the overall view based on reported amounts...

Then for the SFC map from the Sat Nov 13..

Here is the ir4 from GOES 13....

Both the SFC map and the sat images came from the NWS..... Pictures below were taken by The Weather Center...

The snow was very wet... Here at the office we picked up 6.50" of snow... After we melted it down we came up with 0.89" of liquid...

How we measure snowfall...

Many have emailed me about measuring snowfall amounts…So this time around I will show you how we use our snow gauge…..Before we get to that… There are many ways one can measure snowfall… I’m only going to talk about the ways I use… I use two different ways… 1 is a snowfall gauge which we will show you how to do… I also have three snow broads I use…. We will show you how we use them next time around….

Ok first we have our professional rain gauge which is converted into a snow gauge….


First off we remove the top funnel, then the inner tube...You will want to do this before the temps get to 32°f or the inner tube could crack...

Now the gauge is ready to measure snowfall....So the outer tube can go back outside....

Ok picture above shows snow in the guage, now one can take readings throughout the storm this way and record it each time a reading is taken... I like to want until the end of the storm to do the snowfall totals..Unless I see the the gauge is getting close to full then a reading must be taken...

Picture above show we brought the gauge inside.... Picture below shows that we are going to stick a 12" ruler into the gauge...

Picture below shows the ruler all the way to the bottom of the gauge... Now we are ready to read our snowfall amount...

Now we got out reading of the snowfall...Now we melt the snow down to see how much liquid is in the snow... This can be done different ways..I like to use a sink filled with hot water... Picture below shows we ready to see how much liquid is in the snow.. So we now dump the water into the inner tube.

Picture below shows we are now ready to take the reading....

Once this is all done the outter tube goes back on duty.... With snow broads I use three of them I take a measurment from all three then avg them out... Really I avg all four readings out to come up with the snow amounts.... Then record them and keep doing that untill the storm is over... This can be done as often as needed, however it depends on how hard it's snow for me I like to get out and measure every few hrs or so... Again a number factors tell me when I need to do this.... Next time around I will show you how we use our snow broads ....

Snowfall forecasted updated

Did some updating to the snowfall forecast map... Not 100% in agreement with the pros,nevertheless most of the FA will see snow...

Snowfall forecast

Things have changed big time once again...For now will just issue our snowfall forecast....Things still could change more still... So stay tuned to the number one private forecasting site on the net....

Fast forecast

Nice and warm temps will hold through Wednesday....Could see a few rain showers around Wednesday and Wed night as a cold front moves through the area....Rest of the week looks like temps will be cooling off... With a chance of rain and snow through Saturday night... We may have to remove this all together if models keep trending the low pressure more East/Southeast of the area..We could remain high and dry.... Will have a more detailed forecast tomorrow....

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

A warm weekend on tap, in fact the early part of the upcoming work week looks to be rather mild… All bets are off after Wednesday…. Then be weekends end or next week we could be dealing with what could be a possibly snow storm…. More on that in the extended forecast….Don't forget to set your clocks back an hour Saturday night....


***CURRENT CONDTIONS***

At the 10 AM hr we see temps in the upper 30s to lowers 40s…. Winds have been more noticeable out of the South/Southwest…Ranging from 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH… Highest wind gusts have been reported at Superior….. Skies are sunny, however satellite is showing some middle to upper level clouds throughout the FA….

***SFC AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***

Looking at the 500 MB chart off the RUC we find an large upper level trof over the Eastern third of the Country… Meantime we see a rather large upper level ridge to our West/Southwest and South.. Upper level flow remains out of the Northwest, while SFC level winds remain out of the South/Southwest…. Using the mixing formally we should see a rather breezy day winds should range from 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to around 25 MPH…. See no reason not to argue with that as this as already been the case this morning…. A 1030 MB high pressure is centered over the Southern Plains at the SFC…. This is forecasted to keep South/South winds going, which in return has started the WAA during the overnight hrs….. This high is forecasted to remain in control of our weather pattern right though Wednesday…. GFS model am not buying into it as it wants to flatting out the upper level trof and ridge faster than the other models…… By Monday NAM shows a 1000 MBS low pressure out over MT…. NAM moves this low into Western ND, and SD by Late Monday night/early Tuesday time frame… This will ensure us of yet another warm day on Monday and Tuesday as winds remain out of the South/Southeast… Wednesday NAM has a 995 MB low pressure over far Eastern ND and a 999 MB low over Central parts of KS…. Once again winds out of the South/Southeast will keep temps above normal …. Lets look at the ECMWF model…..

For the part this model is in agreement with NAM…. Just some small placement problems…ECWMF is showing more of a trof reaching North in the SD, and ND on Wednesday.. With the SFC low over Northwestern KS… By Thursday ECMWF moves the 995 MB low pressure into Eastern ND/Northwestern MN… Then well North into Canada… This is forecasted to drag a cold front into and through the area Wednesday night… May see a shower or two around but not really excited about it as it appears right now most of the moisture and dynamics remain well west and North of the FA…. Will keep a chance of rain showers on Thursday and mix the rain with snow Thursday night into Friday….. Once again if things keep trending the way they have been may very well drop the precip from this forecast cycle completely….

***TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY***

Mostly sunny with highs ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s by Tuesday…. Winds today South 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH…. Winds dying down to 5 to 10 MPH throughout this period… Lows will start in the upper 20s to lower 30s and warm to middle 30s to around 40…Before cooling back of into the lower to middle 30s by Wednesday night…

***EXTENDED FORECAST FROM NOV 13TH THROUGH NOV 22ND***

Confidence level in the forecast cycle remains rather low, as long range models don’t see eye to eye on much still…. However will run with ECMWF to the 16th then forced into using GFS for the rest of the forecast cycle…..

The 13th ECWMF model has a 1011 MB low pressure over Eastern KS…. This low is forecasted to move Northeast to the Northwestern part of MI and deepen to around 997 MBS…. This model does show enough cold air to be in place for mainly all snow event… Moisture ATTM does not appear to be a problem as the GOM should be wide open….If this track does play out it would set the stage for accumulating snows for the FA… Again it’s hard to buy into this as of right now, though this model has remain rather bullheaded on this for the last few days… Time will only tell and will see watch the med range model say once they latch onto it….. Nevertheless we have and will keep watching this…

After that system moves out things settle down for the 15th and 16th …. This now bring us into more trouble with this longer range FA… The way GFS has been acting up it’s really hard to buy into any of this period from the 17th through the 22nd …. The 17th GFS has a low pressure system over far Southern MI… Keep precip well to our Southeast over Southern/and parts of Eastern WI… Meanwhile GFS has what appears to be a trof/warm frontal boundary out over MT… It shows precip in the Northern Plains.. This is forecasted to move North into Canada By 18th GFS does show this system moving along the US/Canada border if that holds up we should see some light snow over my Northern parts of the FA… Next chance at snow comes in around the 20th may be warm enough at the SFC for rain and snow mixture at the SFC by the 21st holding through the 22nd …… Once again confidence levels are very low from the 17th through the 22nd …..

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI....

Dry conditions shall remain with us right through next Tuesday….. Then a storm system we have been watching over the last few days could plow into the area… More on that in awhile….



***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS showing temps in the upper 30s North to the lower 40s Central, with middle 40s being reported in EAU…. Skies range from mostly cloudy in my Eastern areas to partly cloudy in my Central to Western areas…. Main cloud deck is over Bay Field County and extends down through Sawyer, Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau Claire Counties… Mean time further West the clouds have become more scattered in nature….. Winds are out the North/Northwest from 10 to 20 MPH with gust as high as 21 to 26 MPH…..

*** SFC ANALYSIS***

18z RUC charts show a large 1029 MB high pressure system in ND extending down into KS, meanwhile a 988 MB low pressure is centered just off the Coast line of NJ…. Pressure gradients between these two systems have allowed for North/Northwest winds to crank up over the FA….High pressure system is forecasted to move South throughout the night winds should slowly die down… This will allow for good radiation cooling to setup over head… Temps tonight could be the coldest we seen thus far this session… Upper teens to lower 20s seem to be plausible…. Tomorrow FA still locked under the ridge of high pressure winds will be much lighter, however temps will remain about the same as they are today.... Upper 30s to lower 40s… Middle 40s South….Friday night WAA slowly starts to kick in so thinking as of right now to go with temps in the middle 20s throughout much of the FA…. May see some lower 20s up North….Saturday through Tuesday… The ridge of high pressure will remain in control of our weather… As WAA really cranks up we shall see temsp warm into the lower to middle 50s throughout this period with lows in the middle 30s warming to the lower 40s by Monday night….Monday we see a 998 low pressure system Just North of MT.. This low is forecasted by GFS to move into SE MT/Northeastern WY by Tuesday early morning.. Late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning the low is forecasted to be in South Central MN and around 1001 MBS..Low is forecasted to lift right over head throughout the FA… This should set the stage for some rain showers Tuesday night through late Wednesday… Temps should remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s for highs, while lows in the lower 40s…..


***LONG RANGE FORECAST (NOV 11 THROUGH NOV 20)***
Looking at the GFS model first..

Thursday the 11th looks to be quite as we see a 1023 MB high pressure over Eastern ND…. Meanwhile we find an area of low pressure over South Central KS/North Central OK… High pressure is forecasted to move in Northwest MN, meanwhile the low is forecasted to move into Southeastern KS late Thursday night early Friday morning… Later in the day on Friday the high pressure system is forecasted to be over Central MN and the low is forecasted to move into North Central MO By Friday night high pressure system is forecasted to be on my FA’s door step… As the low pressure system is forecasted to move into Northeastern MO… By late Friday night early Saturday morning the low is forecasted to be over the thumb of MI….. Now if this plays out we should remain high and dry as far as any major snow accumulations go in the FA……. Next chance at snow comes in around the 17th time frame as we see a system diving Southeast out of Canada This could linger into Early Friday morning ATTM it does not appear to be anything big…Then another system diving Southeast could bring us another shot of snow on the 20th. Does look to be a vey cold period setting up…..

Looking at the ECMWF model….

Though this model does have a low pressure system over Northern MN with a trof extending down extending down to another area of low pressure over the Southern Plains… if that does play out we could see some snow around the area…This model does show an interesting system for Saturday and Sunday…. If this plays out we may be dealing with a snow storm… Still confidence level in this long rage forecast is very low ATTM… reason being models just aren’t seeing eye to eye on much of anything this far out… Though models do agree this period will be getting colder as we head into and through the forecasted cycle……. We will keep any eye on things… As we now will be playing the flip flop game as far as the long range forecast goes…..

Great news

The Weather Center has always been the leader in private weather forecasting for Western/Northwestern WI....We will always be.... The great news is we have been forecasting for a Trucker (a friend of mine),who works for Roehl Transport INC...So what does this mean for The Weather Center... Well it means we get to forecast for a much larger area,so far it's be the East of the MS River  to the Eastern Coast areas...So this also means the goals have changed...We now will work on becoming the leader in the private forecasting sector throughout much of the CONUS, this will not effect our leadership in Western/Northwestern WI.... We have and alway will be the top dog in this area for severe weather of all kinds, as some of have noticed we no longer issue forecasts during the dull times We see no reason to, and plus we have been busy with our new adventure ....Rest assure though if we have severe weather of any kind that may effect the Western/Northwestern WI you will have heard it hear first...Unlike other forecasting sites/ blogs who claim there the first or best... Our track record has always spoke for it's self... We want to take this time to thank each and everyone who trusts our forecasts, and thanks for the 100s if not 1000s of emails we get throughout every week.

Just like right now we have been watching a storm system the could effect the area the middle or end of next week...If later model runs keep showing it we will have a detailed forecast on it tonight....

Short term forecasting tools

Many have emailed us this question...What are the tools you use in doing a short term forecast?.
Well we use a wide range of tools... First off the bat we use SFC analysis charts along with SFC OBS charts and reports... We use the RUC model along with the SREF model.. We also use the SPC Mesoscale analysis.. Satellite and radar are also used.
Below is our radar we use..(GRLevel 2)

Here is one of many satellite views we use.

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Here is one of many SFC charts we use this one is SFC OBS...

There are many other tools we use,just showing them all would be a task in it's self.....