Saturday, November 6, 2010

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

A warm weekend on tap, in fact the early part of the upcoming work week looks to be rather mild… All bets are off after Wednesday…. Then be weekends end or next week we could be dealing with what could be a possibly snow storm…. More on that in the extended forecast….Don't forget to set your clocks back an hour Saturday night....


At the 10 AM hr we see temps in the upper 30s to lowers 40s…. Winds have been more noticeable out of the South/Southwest…Ranging from 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH… Highest wind gusts have been reported at Superior….. Skies are sunny, however satellite is showing some middle to upper level clouds throughout the FA….


Looking at the 500 MB chart off the RUC we find an large upper level trof over the Eastern third of the Country… Meantime we see a rather large upper level ridge to our West/Southwest and South.. Upper level flow remains out of the Northwest, while SFC level winds remain out of the South/Southwest…. Using the mixing formally we should see a rather breezy day winds should range from 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to around 25 MPH…. See no reason not to argue with that as this as already been the case this morning…. A 1030 MB high pressure is centered over the Southern Plains at the SFC…. This is forecasted to keep South/South winds going, which in return has started the WAA during the overnight hrs….. This high is forecasted to remain in control of our weather pattern right though Wednesday…. GFS model am not buying into it as it wants to flatting out the upper level trof and ridge faster than the other models…… By Monday NAM shows a 1000 MBS low pressure out over MT…. NAM moves this low into Western ND, and SD by Late Monday night/early Tuesday time frame… This will ensure us of yet another warm day on Monday and Tuesday as winds remain out of the South/Southeast… Wednesday NAM has a 995 MB low pressure over far Eastern ND and a 999 MB low over Central parts of KS…. Once again winds out of the South/Southeast will keep temps above normal …. Lets look at the ECMWF model…..

For the part this model is in agreement with NAM…. Just some small placement problems…ECWMF is showing more of a trof reaching North in the SD, and ND on Wednesday.. With the SFC low over Northwestern KS… By Thursday ECMWF moves the 995 MB low pressure into Eastern ND/Northwestern MN… Then well North into Canada… This is forecasted to drag a cold front into and through the area Wednesday night… May see a shower or two around but not really excited about it as it appears right now most of the moisture and dynamics remain well west and North of the FA…. Will keep a chance of rain showers on Thursday and mix the rain with snow Thursday night into Friday….. Once again if things keep trending the way they have been may very well drop the precip from this forecast cycle completely….


Mostly sunny with highs ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s by Tuesday…. Winds today South 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH…. Winds dying down to 5 to 10 MPH throughout this period… Lows will start in the upper 20s to lower 30s and warm to middle 30s to around 40…Before cooling back of into the lower to middle 30s by Wednesday night…


Confidence level in the forecast cycle remains rather low, as long range models don’t see eye to eye on much still…. However will run with ECMWF to the 16th then forced into using GFS for the rest of the forecast cycle…..

The 13th ECWMF model has a 1011 MB low pressure over Eastern KS…. This low is forecasted to move Northeast to the Northwestern part of MI and deepen to around 997 MBS…. This model does show enough cold air to be in place for mainly all snow event… Moisture ATTM does not appear to be a problem as the GOM should be wide open….If this track does play out it would set the stage for accumulating snows for the FA… Again it’s hard to buy into this as of right now, though this model has remain rather bullheaded on this for the last few days… Time will only tell and will see watch the med range model say once they latch onto it….. Nevertheless we have and will keep watching this…

After that system moves out things settle down for the 15th and 16th …. This now bring us into more trouble with this longer range FA… The way GFS has been acting up it’s really hard to buy into any of this period from the 17th through the 22nd …. The 17th GFS has a low pressure system over far Southern MI… Keep precip well to our Southeast over Southern/and parts of Eastern WI… Meanwhile GFS has what appears to be a trof/warm frontal boundary out over MT… It shows precip in the Northern Plains.. This is forecasted to move North into Canada By 18th GFS does show this system moving along the US/Canada border if that holds up we should see some light snow over my Northern parts of the FA… Next chance at snow comes in around the 20th may be warm enough at the SFC for rain and snow mixture at the SFC by the 21st holding through the 22nd …… Once again confidence levels are very low from the 17th through the 22nd …..