Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems today…Snow, LES, Winds, and Temps..


SFC OBS as of 9 AM… Most stations are reporting light snow… Temps range from the middle 30s in my Eastern FA to the middle 20s in me Central and Western areas….Winds are West/Northwest around 10 MPH with gusts up to 26 MPH…Radar showing a large area of light snow throughout the FA…


A rather strong low pressure system is centered over Northwestern WI this morning. Pressure reading on the low is around the 996 MBS.. Cold front slices my FA in half this morning …Running from Bayfield through Sawyer, Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau Claire Counties… Shows up rather well on the SFC OBS and Satellite imagery… Light rain showers have switched over to snow throughout my Central and Western parts of the FA, meanwhile light rain/drizzle out ahead of the cold front… Those areas should be switching over to all snow within an hour or two…. WV satellite imagery shows some left over moisture throughout the area, CAA will wring that out today, plus with the help of the low pressure moving away and a weak trof dropping South this will aid in the snow…Should see 1-2 inches in my Central, and Northern areas, close to an inch in my far Southern area….Temps today will either remain steady to slowly falling…. Note temps have been falling here at the office over the last few hours…..Winds will begin to pick up as pressure gradients increase between the low that is forecasted to deepen to around 994 MBS today as it slowly pulls away and, to a 1036 MBS high pressure to our West/Northwest…Winds should be around the 15 to 23 MPH range with gusts up to around 30 MPH, this will lead to some blow and drifting of the newly snowfall… Up North LES in my snow belts will crank up as winds switch to the Northwest and North..The higher terrains could pick up 2 to 5 inches of snow on top of what they have, today through tonight…. Tonight will keep a chance of light snow going as the low pressure is still close enough and the trof dropping South through the area.. Still should see enough wrap around moisture pulled into the area… Lows tonight shall fall into the middle teens with winds become lighter. Wednesday the low move towards Hudson Bay, this should take the snow out of the FA… May see flurries from time to time… Highs shall be right around 20 or so…Lows falling into the single digits… We will have to watch that if we get clearing sooner we may have to drop the temps even more… Thursday the area will be under a 1024 MBS high pressure system/ridge… This will allow for skies to Partly cloudy to sunny… Will keep highs right around 20…. Lows Thursday night may have to be adjusted down from the middle single digits to lower single digits… Will worry about later..Friday 1028 MB high pressure is forecasted to over MN this will keep us high and dry… Will stay with the flow in the temps dept…Highs right around 20…


Ok lets start off with talking about the GFS model…. GFS has the are under a ridge of high pressure through Friday night.. it does start to track a 1009 MB low pressure toward the FA early Sat morning. Then over towards Chicago area late Saturday night…GFS has much warmer air with this system compared to the other models, which would give us an over running scenario leading towards a mix of bag of precip… For now Am going to disregard GFS….
Lets look at the ECMWF model….This model has colder air in place throughout the FA and the track of the system would place the FA in an all snow event.. Still not thrilled about accumulations this far out, however we will watch…. Both models do agree on another cold dump late next weekend…After that looks like off and on snow chances doesn’t look to be anything big as of right now… Temps will remain close to norms throughout the FA cycle….