Sunday, November 21, 2010

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast problems…. Freezing light rain and drizzle throughout the rest of the day with snow mixing in later… Snow chances of Monday and again for mid week…. Temps will become problematic throughout the upcoming short work week…. Then a warm up in store for the holiday weekend ?before more cold air dives South….. Lots to talk about so we best better stop wasting time and get right into the heart of things…

Back roads are very slick this morning along with sidewalks and overpasses… If you are going to be out and bout allow yourself some extra time and slow down….

At this 9 AM hr we find the FA locked under clouds/patchy fog with areas of very light freezing rain and drizzle…. Temps hanging in the upper 20s to lower 30s… Winds are out of the East/Southeast ranging from 5 to 12 MPH…

Problems for today through Monday… First off how long to keep the freezing light rain and drizzle going … SFC trof still has yet to move the FA until this does light wintery mix will be possible throughout the day… SFC temps downstream have been warming into the 30s.. I do except to see that throughout the FA within the next few hrs…. May not happen as fast in my Northern FA…. Roads should start to get better once temps hit 32° and above… Profiles still showing warm air above the SFC, however some cooling does take place…. If that happens we could see so snow mixing in with the wintery mix…. Not excepting much in away of accumulations….. Highs today should reach for the middle to upper 30s…. Tonight Trof moves out of the area, this should take the precip with it…..Lows tonight under cloudy skies should fall into the upper 20s…. With that all said we are also watching a system that will give us some snow on Monday…1001 MB low pressure over CO is forecasted to move Northeast rather fast into far Northeast WI/UP MI by Monday late morning…. 700 MB heights shows enough cold air in place to be a light snow event…. 850 MB heights showing about the same, however some warm air looks to be moving into my very far Southern/Southeastern parts of the FA… This could set the stage down there for another light freezing rain event…
Snow accumulations for Monday… I’m still thinking 1 to 2 inches will be possible…. Highs on your Monday upper 20s to lower 30s… Monday night light snow should becoming to an end.. May even see some breaks in the cloud cover… Lows middle to upper teens…. If clouds break up we may have to lower temps a few more degrees….. Tuesday we get a break in the action as the cold front will have pushed far enough South/Southeast… NAM shows a 1028 MB high pressure system building into the area so will run with partly cloudy skies per 700 MB RH charts…. Highs will top off in the lower 20s….

We are still having some problems in the first part of this forecast cycle, as far as timing and placement issues of a possible winter storm over Wednesday/thanksgiving day…..
So for right now going to run with the same was I did yesterday…. Though there are signs of this system slowing down as its deepens over WI this could cause problems into Thursday night before the snow ends….
Still thinking most of my FA will see accumulating snows from Wednesday late day through Thanksgiving day… My thinking with the models data I have right in front of me ATTM is a good 6 to 12 inches of snow is possible, with higher amounts along my LES belts of Lake Superior… Am still going to hold off on putting a map out as confidence levels aren’t really high just yet…… Another problem is the Arctic air poised to move into the area.. As of right now I’m not going to run with below zero temps for Thursday night unless clouds clear out, right now looks like they may hold strong with some snow still around… If models keep slowing this system down…. Still temps will be cold with highs in the upper teens for Thanksgiving day and middle teens for Friday…. Will run will lows in the middle single digits for now….. Now models have changed the song for the weekend… Show 850 MB temps right around 0c… Problem here is I don’t think they are taken into account the possible fresh snow pack…. So for now I’m not buying into this…. Thinking is temps should remain in the upper teens and lower 20s… That is if we get a good snow pack… So as one can see there are few things that are going to throw forecast out into the back forty…..Next chance at snow moves in for Nov 30th and Dec 1st and again Dec 3rd /Dec 4th time frame, as a few clipper like systems move through… With each one colder air is forecasted behind each one….. So temps shall remain cold with off and on snow through the middle to end of the forecast cycle……