Thursday, November 4, 2010

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI....

Dry conditions shall remain with us right through next Tuesday….. Then a storm system we have been watching over the last few days could plow into the area… More on that in awhile….


SFC OBS showing temps in the upper 30s North to the lower 40s Central, with middle 40s being reported in EAU…. Skies range from mostly cloudy in my Eastern areas to partly cloudy in my Central to Western areas…. Main cloud deck is over Bay Field County and extends down through Sawyer, Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau Claire Counties… Mean time further West the clouds have become more scattered in nature….. Winds are out the North/Northwest from 10 to 20 MPH with gust as high as 21 to 26 MPH…..


18z RUC charts show a large 1029 MB high pressure system in ND extending down into KS, meanwhile a 988 MB low pressure is centered just off the Coast line of NJ…. Pressure gradients between these two systems have allowed for North/Northwest winds to crank up over the FA….High pressure system is forecasted to move South throughout the night winds should slowly die down… This will allow for good radiation cooling to setup over head… Temps tonight could be the coldest we seen thus far this session… Upper teens to lower 20s seem to be plausible…. Tomorrow FA still locked under the ridge of high pressure winds will be much lighter, however temps will remain about the same as they are today.... Upper 30s to lower 40s… Middle 40s South….Friday night WAA slowly starts to kick in so thinking as of right now to go with temps in the middle 20s throughout much of the FA…. May see some lower 20s up North….Saturday through Tuesday… The ridge of high pressure will remain in control of our weather… As WAA really cranks up we shall see temsp warm into the lower to middle 50s throughout this period with lows in the middle 30s warming to the lower 40s by Monday night….Monday we see a 998 low pressure system Just North of MT.. This low is forecasted by GFS to move into SE MT/Northeastern WY by Tuesday early morning.. Late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning the low is forecasted to be in South Central MN and around 1001 MBS..Low is forecasted to lift right over head throughout the FA… This should set the stage for some rain showers Tuesday night through late Wednesday… Temps should remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s for highs, while lows in the lower 40s…..

Looking at the GFS model first..

Thursday the 11th looks to be quite as we see a 1023 MB high pressure over Eastern ND…. Meanwhile we find an area of low pressure over South Central KS/North Central OK… High pressure is forecasted to move in Northwest MN, meanwhile the low is forecasted to move into Southeastern KS late Thursday night early Friday morning… Later in the day on Friday the high pressure system is forecasted to be over Central MN and the low is forecasted to move into North Central MO By Friday night high pressure system is forecasted to be on my FA’s door step… As the low pressure system is forecasted to move into Northeastern MO… By late Friday night early Saturday morning the low is forecasted to be over the thumb of MI….. Now if this plays out we should remain high and dry as far as any major snow accumulations go in the FA……. Next chance at snow comes in around the 17th time frame as we see a system diving Southeast out of Canada This could linger into Early Friday morning ATTM it does not appear to be anything big…Then another system diving Southeast could bring us another shot of snow on the 20th. Does look to be a vey cold period setting up…..

Looking at the ECMWF model….

Though this model does have a low pressure system over Northern MN with a trof extending down extending down to another area of low pressure over the Southern Plains… if that does play out we could see some snow around the area…This model does show an interesting system for Saturday and Sunday…. If this plays out we may be dealing with a snow storm… Still confidence level in this long rage forecast is very low ATTM… reason being models just aren’t seeing eye to eye on much of anything this far out… Though models do agree this period will be getting colder as we head into and through the forecasted cycle……. We will keep any eye on things… As we now will be playing the flip flop game as far as the long range forecast goes…..