Cold,Cold and more cold...Some pictures also...

Well if you like the cold you will love this.... Last night we got down -15 while the Rice Lake Airport came in with -12... The lows happened at 1 AM this morning... The week ahead will star more cold temps,more so closer to normal but nevertheless still should be below normal with highs from the upper teens to lower 30s with lows ranging from near -10 below to middle teens..The 6 to 14 day outlook will star even more colder air as temps will remain well below normal...Not really seeing any big time winter storms as of now....There are some systems to watch,however thinking is as of right now they will remain South of the area.... This is a fast forecast....
Now for those who missed yesterday's sundogs and sun Haloes,along with the sun pillars at sunset...Never fear I was able to photograph them.Picture below shows the sun Halo with the sundogs on either side coming off the halo to the left and right.

Picture below shows the sun pillar along with ice crystals towards the snow...

Picture below shows the sun being stretched with the sun pillars...

Picture below shows the sun pillar really taken off...

Picture below I just love..Very nice sun pillar and the way the sun is setting looks like the tree line is burning...So all in all it was a great sunset...Temps at +5° at the time these pictures were taken... Lots of ice crystals in the air....

Click on pictures to see a bigger size...Not the full size...The full size pictures are better thats for sure!

Home away from home.

I had a great day yesterday u on Lake Superior,the Wisconsin Point area....The ice has changed big time up there from the warmer temps we had last week,along with the very strong winds from the Northeast last weekend....Last time Derek and I were up there you could not see any open water as far as the eye could see... This time we could see open water with ice bergs floating around...

Lots of hiking yeah I was beat so decided to take a rest..Nice spot out of the wind! Derek now knows I'm crazy...LOL.... One of these times we need to meet up with Tim when we are up there!

We are back online

Here is what Dirk had to clean off.Looks like Dirk will have do some painting this summer....

This has to be the hardest I have ever seen our lead forecaster work! Kinda funny isn't it?

Hey Dirk you missed a spot.If you are going to do a job do it right lol.

Still snowing,can't believe Dirk is letting me run this camera.Ok he did set the setting on it.Way to hard for me to understand this frogging camera...

Here is another shot,with yet another different setting.Dirk get an easier camera! Not sure why he enjoys all this hard stuff.

Yes these pictures taken by your forecaster Paul>>>> Still hard to believe Dirk let me use his camera.Dirk now get busy on the driveway so I can go home! lol.

*** SPECIAL NOTICE***

Special message The Weather Center will be offline for about 15 minutes to an hour as we have to clean snow off of our equipment… We will be back online as soon as possible…..          

Short term forecast number 7.

Heavy snow lasted longer than thought in the short term forecast number 6….Mod to sometime heavy snow continues for Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Price  Polk, Sawyer, St. Croix, and Washburn Counties… Another 1 to 4 inches of snow should fall throughout said Counties before ending later today….  Here at the office Mod to heavy snow still falling…. See pictures below….Winds aren’t as strong as yesterday and last night, however there still is a lot of blowing drifting going on here at the office…..

Once again I don't understand why some reprts from the area are much lower than mine...Hence is why I have been taking pictures when I take readings...Is it cuz people have a hard time taking readings with blowing and drifting snow, could be I know there are times I have a problem with it...I don't really know...I think the NWS should train people to take snow readings...Just my 2 cents...

Short term forecast number 6

Heavy snow becoming to an end across my Southern zones Pepin and Southern Eau Claire Counties… Elsewhere’s mod to heavy snow will keep working North from Pierce Dunn, and Chippewa Counties… Here the heavy snow should becoming to an end within the next hr or so…. Heavy snows will continue  for Barron, Polk, and Rusk Counties for another 2 hrs or so… Further North the Heavy snow should last right through the midnight hr…. Light snow will follow the heavy snow bands… Have been a lot of 8 plus reports along with 12 inch plus reports through Central and Southern areas….Here at the office as of 8:53 PM we have had almost 9 inches see picture below this post… Will take another reading soon….

snowfall amount as of 8:53 PM

Still very heavy snow falling here at the office just got back in from taking another reading see picture below...

snowfall amount so far

Heres what we have for snow amount here at The Weather Center so far....Still snowing very heavy and lots of blowing and drifting going on,whiteout conditions here now and have been holding that way for about the last half hour....

A look from the office

Took a few pictures out the back door as you can see white,in fact at times I can't see the tree that is in one picture....Yupper she is bad out....

Short term forecast number 5

At 6:19 pm Radar showing a few different heavy snow bands pushing through the area one over Northern Barron, Polk, Rusk, Central parts of Burnett, Washburn Counties into Southwestern Sawyer County…The other heavy band was covering a rather large area of my Southern/Central areas…This band is moving North also… Some sleet has mixed in on the Southern areas of this band… Also some 10 inch reports coming out of EAU county, while my other Counties in the Southern zones reporting 4 to 6 inches thus far….Winds have been causing near whiteout conditions throughout much of the FA.. Also wind have caused some damage in Northern Barron County….Large tree downed…. Look for conditions to worsen through the rest of the evening into the overnight hrs… Snow should start to tapped off between 12 AM South/West to around 2AM to 3 AM elsewhere’s look for total storm amounts to be in the 10 to 15 inch range…..

Fast short term update number 4

Fast update more detail update around 6 PM….


Thunderstorms are forming over Southern WI along with parts of Southern MN…They are moving Northeast…How much moisture will these rob flowing northwards still remains to be seen…. Otherwise the heavy snow is still pushing do Northwards through much of my Central FA… Snow has began to fill /form back over my Southern area… More thunderstorms are starting to fire up over IA they are pushing Northeastward. Over the next hr or so we will see how this impacts incoming moisture… Lots now going on in the office…… Here at the office heavy snow near whiteout conditions from time to time...Winds 25 MPH with gust up to 33 MPH,not the highest gust but still gusty.....Winds will range from 20 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 30 to 38 MPH throughout the evening into the overnight hrs...This will cause blowing and drifting snow,along with near whiteout conditions... Not a good night to be on the roads...

Short term update number 3

Lightning data is showing some lightning strikes over MN this could very well make it into the FA....So thundersnow will be possible from time to time.... This map shows where the lightning has been, however loooking at the local lightning data nothing close by....Still could be some thunder,as this map and other lightning data is geared towards showing lightning strickes... Mod to hvy snow will keep up though the this late afternoon right through the overnight hrs... Heavy snows bands have been shifting Northwards from my Southern areas....The Southern areas the snow should be ending in the next 30 mins to and 1 hr before more snow forms/fills back in...I really dont care for this map however its another tool...For best guess....

Short term forecast number2

Mod to heavy snow is now falling throughout much of the FA,all except my Northern areas....Look for snow to keep piling up through the overnight hrs... Snowfall forecast map still looks to be in good shape so will leave it stand...Winds will keep near whiteout conditions going through the rest of the afternoon well into the overnight hrs... Tune into your local radio stations as there have been canalations looks for many more throughout the evening. Pictures show blowing snow here at the office...The heavy snow is hard to see,but its heavy.

Hard to get a reading on the snow as its blowing big time,not even going to guess as it would be pointless to try....As you can see roads by the office are slick....

Short term forecast number 1

Snow has started to overcome the drier air that was in place over my Central and Northern areas…. Forecasted snowfall amount still look to be on track…. System slowed a little more hence  for the slower starting times in the Central and Northern area…… EAU has reported 3.5 inches while in Dunn County 1.5 inches has been reported…. Looking at the radar Heavier bands of snow will keep pushing North/Northeast…. So look for heavy snow to either start or keep going depending where you are….Winds will remain a problem so near whiteout Conditions will become more widespread throughout the afternoon well into the overnight hrs…..Will be a long day and night in the office the way its looking.......

Snowfall forecast map....

This still may have to be updated tomorrow... Will depend on if the system keeps slowing or if the forecast models speed it backup.... The track seems to be set in stone...Speed of system is not just yet...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM WEATHER STATEMENT****

***DANGEROUS WINTER STORM TO SLAM THE AREA***


After going through more data I have decided to up snowfall amounts so will issue a new updated map shortly… Looks like a rather large area of the forecast area could see 10 to 15 inches of snow…. Map will be out shortly.

Strong low pressure system is forecasted to track into Southern IA then into IL before exiting the area Monday… The track of said storm will allow for heavy snow throughout much of the FA…. Main areas will be South a line from a Burnett to Sawyer Counties…. Areas South of this line could see snowfall amounts ranging from 10 to 15 inches of snow…. North of this line 5 to 8 inches of snow…. With 3 to 5 inches in my Northern zones… LES still possible in the Lake Superior snow belts…With around 5 inches up there….A little concerned that this may not be realized as drier air looks like it could work into this area shutting down the LES machine…… I have decided to up the snowfall totals for my Southern zones, as it appears colder air will work in a little faster than previously thought…Still a little concerned about doing this as there will still be plenty of sleet and periods of FRZ rain before switching over to all snow… However to keep up with the trends will up snow amounts there also……Timing of the snow….Early Sunday morning between 12 AM -1 AM for the FA…. The heavy snow will start in ernest right around day break for most of the FA heavy snow will start later in the morning for the Eastern areas on Sunday….Timing could change, short term forecast can handle that just fine and dandy…Winds will become a player with this system causing considerable blowing and drifting snow Sunday late morning through Monday morning… This along with the falling snow will lead to white conditions ATTMs mainly in rural areas with little trees….Travel will become very dangerous to nearly impossible by Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening….Models have slowed down this system so will keep snow going through much of Monday morning if this trend keeps up in the next few runs we may have to keep snow going right through Monday afternoon before wording light snow… Will worry about tomorrow…. Also with the slower speed is why we have went with higher totals…..

Now is the time to get ready for this major snowstorm….If you must travel tomorrow keep a winter safety kit in your vehicle…. Let someone know you times of departure and time of arrival… If you should become stranded remain with your vehicle and call for help if you have a cell phone….Wait for help…. This is a dangerous winter storm…. Stay tuned to your local news media or the NWS weather radio, and to The Weather Center for more updates on this winter storm…..
Snowfall map forthcoming....
Forecasters Dirk/Paul......

Snowstorm to effect the area..

Looking at the 06z runs…. GFS and NAM models now have tracked the storm back South compared their 0z runs…..We have decided to blend just about all the computer models to come up with this forecast and along with the snowfall map….. As we see it the low pressure will track from Northeastern CO to Southern IA by 12z Monday then track across Northern IL South of the windy City over to Southeastern OH/Southwestern PA… As a rule this track would place the heaviest snow over the Southern areas…. However with a strong surge of warm air pushing in at the LLV to Middle levels this will actually push the heavier snows North.. Now if one looks at the forecasted snowfall amount from just Nam and GFS that part of the model does keep the heavier snow band to the South….Looking at other weather data would suggest to us to run with our 6 to 12 inch forecast for most of the area… There could be a few spots to see higher accumulations Map will detail that out…. Most of the 12 to 14 inch snowfalls should remain out in MN though…This storm will also have wind with it some blow and drifting will become a problem on Sunday into Sunday night… Winds from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 to 30 MPH will be possible…This will lead to near whiteout conditions… Look for the snow to start in the local area around 12 AM Sunday morning…Some areas could pick up 1 to 2 inches before day break with another 5 to 8 inches during the day….


Going to leave the above writing there just to give everyone an idea what we deal with on storm systems…..

Yes the NAM 12z is coming in. Still has the low tracking South into Southern IA… So that matches with its 06z run…. GFS is slowly coming in on it’s 12z runs now…GFS does show warmer air pushing further North which would bring the mix precip more North…. ECMWF model is also in line with the said track above… So will run with it….. See snowfall map below…

Somethings to clear up as we got flooded with emails this late evening an ealry morning.

Ok the office got flooded from 9 PM through 12:30 AM with emails as to why we are not issuing a snowfall map. So to make life easier I will address the emails here.


Ok as stated in the cbox models have shifted the storm system a little more Northwards this is per the 0z runs. So what this has done as lowered the snowfall amount in my Southern zones. If this trend keeps up this would also lower snowfall amounts in my central areas. After a rather long discussion with Dirk on this we have determined that is was best not to issue a snowfall map based on the 0z runs. We are going to hold until the 12z runs to see what happens. Our text has this covered well with the 6 to 12 inches. Now in our Southern zones it would like 2 to 4 inches per latest computer model output. This will lead to more of a mixtures in them areas. We feel it’s pointless to waste our time issuing a map when time is still on our side. Our forecasted has the amounts to make people aware of what could happen. If we would have issued a map it would have had to be changed based on the latest data. Each storm system is different. With the way the models have handled this from the get go to now we can’t justified the map. Now if there was a little more agreement from the start a map would have been issued. So as of now confidence level is still low on snowfall totals.We will see how the 06z runs look and if we feel things won’t change by 12z runs we will issue our map.We don't care if another site is "jumping the gun with their map" as many of you have put it. They may have more time to change their map a few times a day we don't know, nor do we care. We are to busy looking at the model data a real time data to bring you our forecasts.

Now onto the other question. “why did we say 6 to 12 inches of snow possible when no one other site or NWS made no mention of it until hrs after your forecast?” or just said 6" possible?

Well I can’t really answer this one, why the other sites or NWS didn’t. We felt the 6 to 12 inch range was a safe way to run. Still is for most of the forecast area. Just not in the Southern zones as of now. To be frank with everyone we don’t read any forecasts until after we issue ours, then we still may not read any. We know about the watches and warnings through programs we use and through our phones.

As far as the other blogs take it up with them is all we are going to say on this one, we will longer answer questions about other blogs. Like Dirk said before "there shall no longer be pissing contests on this blog." I agree with him. So if you have any problems you need to go to the blog you are having problems with and let the blog owner know not us..Not trying to be a jerk here, but folks when we got a storm system to deal with we just don't have the time to read pointless emails or complaints about other forecasting sites. Thanks for your understanding in this matter.
We do thank you for being great viewers of our site!

Forecaster Paul>>>

The Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems..Today winds…. Later this weekend a possible snowstorm…. Which is now looking more likely for later Saturday night through Monday morning time frame…..



***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

970 MB low pressure is centered just to the Southwest of Hudson Bay Canada this low dragged a cold front through the FA early last evening….Brought the highest wind gust over in MN and my Central/ Eastern parts of the FA…The Central/ Eastern areas saw wind gusts around the 40 MPH while the Western areas saw wind gusts up to 30 to 30 MPH….Cold front is now entering Western NY and extends down to North Central TX… A large 1035 MB high pressure is centered up over Northwestern Canada the pressure gradients between the high and low will keep for a rather windy day across the FA…. Winds should be decreasing later today/evening… Still today we could see wind gusts up to 30 MPH…. Tonight temps will drop to around the 5 to 10° mark under partly cloudy skies… Saturday still looks to be dry…. Now let’s talk about this winter storm that looks more likely to effect the area on Sunday…..As you all know from previous forecasts some of the models changed their mind within a 6 hr time frame to bring the storm system more North…. Lets now look at some of the models and their forecasted track of the system… Looking at the 12z runs…. Let’s start off with NAM…..Later tonight NAM has a 1003 MB low pressure just off the coast of CA around the Marina area, by later Saturday morning the low is centered over Western NV around the Carson city area…By early Sunday morning NAM has the low pressure 1001 MBS centered over Central CO never the Denver area… From there NAM moves the low into Southern IA/Northern MO and deepens it to around 996 MBS from there the low is forecasted by the NAM model to push into Southern NY…. So Nam now has trended a little more South than yesterday…. This track would take the heaviest of the snow South of the FA…Looking at the GFS model at the start GFS has the same track of the low moving into CA and then into NV through Eastern CO GFS deepens the low to around 995 as it pushes into Southern NE/Northern KS…GFS tracks the low right through Central IA from there it tracks along the Southern WI/Northern IL border to PA…..This track would put the heaviest snow over Central MN and Most of my FA….. ECMWF model concurs… So most of the FA could be looking at 8 plus inches of snow by time this storm is all said and done….What is strange NAM paints out over 10 inches of snow however with the track I do think this model is over estimating snowfall this far North….However with that said GFS is painting out over 14 inches of snow for a large part of the FA…..We will see what happens…. Thinking right now is to run with 6 to 12 inches of snow just to be on the safe side….It will also depend how much warm air gets drawn into the storm system both at the SFC and the middle levels… Some areas could see rain/frz rain/mixture/ before changing over to all snow…. We will detail that tomorrow better… As of right now things could change…..

Snowfall map will be issued either later tonight or tomorrow……For the long term forecast see previous forecast below…. Will leave that ride another day or two as it seems to match well with the long term forecasting models….

***YOUR FORECAST***

TODAY..Mostly sunny, winds 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH from the West/Northwest… Highs from 20 to 25.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy, lows from 4 to 10… Wind decreasing to calm….

SATURDAY… Partly cloudy, highs upper 20s to low 30s… East/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy light snow possible late, lows around 15 to 20..East/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy snow likely highs upper 20s, lows around 15..

MONDAY… Light snow otherwise cloudy, highs around 20….

As of right now total storm accumulations 6 to 12 inches possible…. The amount may have to be adjusted either down or up….

Short term forecast number 1

Cold front as now passed the whole FA... Look for West winds to start to crank up... Still think winds should be 20 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH.... So far the strongest winds are out over MN.... However winds have picked up here at the office this has helped clear out the fog and low clouds... Looking at the Satellite imagery we see clearing skies,however there still is large areas of clouds throughout the area... So if any breaks do occur they shall fill back in rather fast....So mostly cloudy skies still the way to run for tonight with a few flurries from time to time.... There still may be a small chance at seeing the Northern lights tonight, if they happen.... However thinking is clouds will rule the sky... However it is something to watch for later this evening...

Forecast stands for now....

12z ECWMF and GFS are more in line with NAM model...Will leave forecast stand for now to avoid confusion with flip flopping the forecast back and forth.... However ATTM it does appear likely that the FA could be effected by a major winter storm.... Will detail this all out tomorrow... AM going to wait for a few more runs to come in before jumping on this.... Main reason GFS/ECWMF just latched onto this on their 12z runs....If the track of the storm system shifts back South will leave the forecast below intact.If the new projected track holds will change forecast all around...Right now confidence level is rather low on changing the forecast below... Like stated above will wait for a few more runs and decide where to run from there....So far now Am not going to jump on the band wagon...Will sit back as time is on my side still.....

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Last warm day…. We will have to deal with fog the rest of the morning into the early afternoon hrs along with drizzle and.. How warm will temps go today? This will be tricky.… Then the main story will be the cooler temps along with windy conditions for tonight through Friday….Ok let’s talk about all this more in depth….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 11 am all stations reporting cloudy skies and fog, along with drizzle and light rain… Temps range from the lower 40s … Warm spot is up in Ashland 46 °…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Cold front is working through Eastern ND, and SD this morning.. A warm front is across Central IA should remain just South of the FA it may get as far North as EAU, nevertheless temps are warm and should get warmer.. For the most part upper 40s to lower 50s will be possible throughout the FA… Could see a few middle 50s in my Southern areas…This will depend if fog and low clouds lift out and we get more breaks that excepted. Tonight cold front will work its Eastwards into and through the FA… This will allow winds to switch to the West/Northwest as CAA kicks in….Winds are forecasted to increase to 20 to 25 MPH tonight with gusts up to 35 MPH..Friday winds will still be problem will keep winds from the 20 to 25 MPH range with gusts still around 30 to 35 MPH….Temps will be cooler on Friday middle 20s seem plausible…. The weekend is shaping up to be dry with normal temps…. Could see a few snow showers Saturday night as a weak system moves the area….Chances look rather small…Forecasting model took what could have been a major snowstorm for the parts of the FA for Sunday/Monday and have now shifted it well South.. Track now lines up as so….. Low pressure over CO is forecasted to move into Northern MO then through Central IL…Will keep a small chance of light snow/flurries in the forecast… High pressure move back into the FA for late Monday night through Wednesday….Temps shall remain near normal…..

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION-THURSDAY 25TH THROUGH SATURDAY MARCH 5TH ***

ECMWF model has a 992 MB low pressure system over Southeastern CO/Northwestern part of the TX Panhandle on the 25th said low is forecasted to track into Southern MN/Southwestern WI it does weaken to around 994 MBS from there the low is forecasted to push into upstate NY..If this track plays out the FA could be dealing accumulating snows on the 26th….on the 26th we see a 1000 MB low pressure system over Northwestern CO… Looking at the GFS model…996 MB low pressure is over the same spot however its there on the 24th…. GFS moves the low to upstate NY by the 25th… If this is the case we would see light snow do to the speed of the system… After that GFS as a 1034 MB high pressure system building into much of the upper Midwest…..Just to note GFS 06z run is a little slower with the moving the low to upstate NY it has the low over OH by the 25th on the 26 we find a weak area of low pressure over Canada that is forecasted to drop into the area on the 27th so will run with some light snow on this day as well, though moisture seems to be little to none thanks to a storm system to our South… Next chance of snow comes in around the Mar 1st time frame…Will hold onto snow through the 2nd as WAA over rides the cooler dome of air…the 3rd Low pressure is forecasted to be around Northeast NE this will allow for warmer air to move Northwards this should change the snow to rain across my Southern areas and parts of my Central areas…. Meanwhile parts of Central areas could be dealing with a mixture with all snow North of there…By early the 4th low pressure is forecasted to be over Northeastern WI… This will allow for CAA to kick back in changing the mix and rain back over to all snow…Still should see some snow around for the 5th …Looking at the temps… We start this period on the cold side..Temps do warm back to normal by Mar 1st by the 5th we cool back off to below normal once again….

***YOUR FORECAST***

TODAY…… Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle…. Temps around 50… Winds South/Southwest around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with a few flurries..Winds becoming West/Northwest 20 to 25 MPH with gusts 30 to 35 MPH. Lows around 20/

FRIDAY….. Partly cloudy, windy winds West Northwest 20 to 25 MPH with gusts 30 to 35 PMH..Highs in the middle 20s

FRIDAY NIGHT….. Mostly cloudy wind decreasing to 10 to 15 MPH them calm… Lows around 10.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… Cloudy highs upper 20s with lows middle teens… Could see some flurries around Sat night.

SUNDAY… Partly cloudy highs lower to middle 20s.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a small chance of light snow lows around 10….

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with small chance of light snow highs around 20 lows around 10…

TUSEDAY/WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny on Tuesday highs upper 20s… lows around 15…. Wednesday partly cloudy highs lower 30s lows upper teens….

Fast forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Fast forecast..

Look for fog to become dense for the rest of the night into the morning hours.... Lows tonight around 33 to 35.... Tomorrow fog and drizzle in the morning then moslty cloudy skies with temps 45 to 50 South/Southwest winds around 10 MPH......Thursday night cloudy with rain showers changing over to snow showers. Winds becoming West around 10 MPH...Lows around 20...Will keep the small chance of snow going for Friday with highs around 18 should be a rather windy day with winds gusting up to around 30 MPH from the Northwest. Saturday through Sunday will run with mostly cloudy skies with temps in the middle to upper 20s with lows around 10 warming to around 15 by Sunday night.... With a chance of snow Sunday night through Tuesday morning.... Will detail this forecast tomorrow or tomorrow night....

Got fog?

Looking at the GOES fog imagery I would say yes you do....SFC OBS also show it...

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI....

Well hello warm temps, goodbye Arctic temps….Yesterday was the transition period as temps started off well below zero see post below… Temps did nothing but rise all day and well into the evening hrs….Forecast problems well there really isn’t too many to talk about… Snow today however that won’t be a lot...Enjoy the warm week ahead looks like it won't last too long...Still we should not see temps in the 20s below either in the longer term.... 


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

As of 12 PM temps across the area range from the middle 20s around 30…. Most stations reporting light snow Osceola reporting PC skies… Looking at the vis satellite hard to believe that…. Winds are from the South/Southeast from calm to 12 MPH……

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This late morning’s SFC charts shows a warm front over the ND/SD/Western MN…Warm front is forecasted to lift East/Northeast today this will keep snow going throughout much of the day……..We also see a Low pressure system forming along said warm front up in Canada this is forecasted to move to just North of MN by Sunday morning and washout…. Yet another low pressure system will take shape in Canada and dive Southeast toward NE MN late Sunday night…. Most if not all the dynamics remain up in Canada with said systems….My far Northern areas may see some clouds, nevertheless should still see more sun than clouds up there.. For Monday.. Snow in my Central and Southern areas will be ending later this evening… May see some patches of fog and freezing drizzle, While my Northern areas will see a mix of wintery precip right through Sunday night….The Northern areas could pick up 1 to 2 inches of snowfall today..Meanwhile across the rest of the FA look for a dusting to as much as a ½” at tops….After Sunday night high pressure takes control of our FA this will assure us warm sunny to partly cloudy days right through the Thursday… Most of next week temps should be well into the 30s with many 40s… Some computer models still hinting at upper 40s to around 50 by Thursday.. Not sure if I buy into that just yet.. Will depend if we can lose most of the snow pack…..Interesting the 500 MB winds still remain Northwest throughout this time frame…However they do become more zonal before coming more Southwesterly… Still SFC winds for the most part remain out of the South/Southwest Monday and Tuesday winds do flow from the Northwest this will help hold the temps in the middle 30s….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FEB 16TH THROUGH FEB 28TH ***

Upper level wind field will remain out of the Southwest…Both GFS and ECMWF models do show a low pressure system that we will have to watch… Right now both models not seeing eye to eye on the timing or placement of said low… No surprise there…. Let’s talk about each model…. First off GFS shows a 1000 MB moving on shore over Northern CA this low is forecasted to push into Northern NV and deepen to around 996 MBS, GFSD moves the low into Central MT and deepens it furthermore down to around 995 MBS… From there GFS moves the low to South central SD/Northern NE by late Thursday night/early Friday morning …Friday late morning early afternoon GFS has the low right over Southeast MN/Western WI/Southwestern WI area….By Late Friday night the low is forecasted to be well Northeast of MI….Pressure with this low should be around 988 MBS and then it deepens to around 977 MBS as it move through WI….. Now if this track works out the FA should be on the warm side of this system to mainly see rain showers…Could even see our first thunderstorm of the year….Rain should turn over to all snow later Friday afternoon into the evening, However there is a chance we could also see a period of freezing rain…. Way too early to even think about snowfall amount….. Ok let’s look at the ECMWF model… ECMWF has a 1000 MB low pressure system over Central NV Thursday the 17th on the 18th ECMWF moves the low over to Northeast CO and deepens it to 996 MBS… The low is than forecasted to move Northeast into far Southwest WI then towards Northeastern WI before moving into far Northeast UPI of MI, as the low makes it journey through WI it is forecasted to deepen to around 995 MBS or so…. Now if this model’s track plays out we should start with some rain before switching to snow rather fast…. This would put the FA in area of the heaviest snowfall…. Once again this is still not written in stone…. Though this system we will be watching…. As you can see the placement of the low between the models aren’t even close, however if I was to stick my neck on the chopping block I would run with the ECWMF model just do to its excellent track record this winter…..So far now we will blend the two to come up with this… Saturday the 19th we will keep some snow wording to cover any wrap around moisture, mainly in the morning… Meanwhile a 1024 high pressure digs it’s self into ND/SD high is forecasted to move into MN this should clear our skies Saturday afternoon… A low pressure system will be taken shape across Co on Sunday this system is forecasted to stay well South of the FA, however looks like an invert trof will set up… This should give us a chance of some light snow… Meanwhile Southern WI could be dealing with heavy snows.. So a near miss for the FA on the 20th … Next chance of snow comes in around the 22nd/ 23rd time frame… This system may be a another big snow event for the area, though as of right now the heaviest snow looks to fall just South of the FA… Another shot at snow moves back in for the 25th /26th time frame….With a chance of rain for the 28th….. Temps through this time frame start off rather warm…Then temps do become colder once again…. As of right now looks like the main core of the Arctic air will remain to our North/Northeast…. Not saying we won’t have some cold lows and highs… Lows could get below zero once again through this forecast cycle… With highs in the teens….. Temps do warm up close to 30 by the end of this cycle…… So enjoy this warm week we have coming up doesn’t look like it will last after that….. Though this forecast cycle is way out in time… So let’s hope it changes…..

***YOUR FORECAST***

THE REST OF TODAY…. Cloudy with snow likely 1 to 2 inches Northern areas…. Around a ½ inch elsewhere’s.. Highs 30 to 33… South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH…

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy…. Winter mix up North.. Lows around 25 to 28 winds… Southwest light to 5 to 10 MPH

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy, while Northern areas mostly cloudy with a wintery mix…. Highs from 35 to 38… Southwest winds 5 to 15 MPH….

SUNDAY NIGHT… Mostly cloudy…. Up North cloudy with a wintery mix…. Lows middle 20s… Winds becoming West 10 to 20 MPH and gusty…

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY….
Partly cloudy to sunny with highs in the middle to upper 30s with some 40s… Lows in the Middle to upper 20s…..

Say good bye to the Arctic air!

Well last night was another cold night, colder than I thought it was going to be….. Well I should say this morning as the lows normally occur right around sunrise…. So let’s see how cold it got this morning…..Just about all the info comes from the NWS unless otherwise noted….Tonight temps won’t fall to these readings….. WAA well under way right now…..Will leave forecast below stand....

So how cold did it get? let's take a look.....
As of 6 AM this morning.

CITY SKY/WX TMP

SUPERIOR ARPT PTCLDY -6

ASHLAND PTCLDY -10

6HR MIN TEMP: -12;

HAYWARD MOCLDY -22

6HR MIN TEMP: -23

SIREN CLEAR -19

6HR MIN TEMP: -22

RICE LAKE CLEAR -21

6HR MIN TEMP: -26

LADYSMITH CLEAR -16

6HR MIN TEMP: -23

EAU CLAIRE CLEAR -15

6HR MIN TEMP: -16

NEW RICHMOND CLEAR -13

6HR MIN TEMP: -18

OSCEOLA CLEAR -15

Here at the office we had -28 for the low.

As of 7 AM this morning….

CITY SKY/WX TMP

SUPERIOR ARPT MOCLDY -6

ASHLAND PTCLDY -5

HAYWARD CLEAR -22

SIREN CLOUDY -18

RICE LAKE CLEAR -22

LADYSMITH CLEAR -18

EAU CLAIRE CLEAR -14

NEW RICHMOND PTCLDY -13

OSCEOLA CLOUDY -11

Here at the office we had -24

Now let’s look at the current temps… Let’s look at the whole SFC OBS…..

WIZ001-002-006>008-014>016-023>028-111900-

NORTHWEST WISCONSIN



CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

SUPERIOR ARPT CLOUDY 9 0 66 SW12 29.71F WCI -6

ASHLAND CLOUDY 9 -1 64 SW14 29.73F WCI -7

6HR MIN TEMP: -10; 6HR MAX TEMP: 9;



HAYWARD LGT SNOW 6 -1 73 SW6 29.74F WCI -4

6HR MIN TEMP: -23; 6HR MAX TEMP: 6; 6HR PCP: TRACE;



SIREN FLURRIES 10 2 71 SW5 29.76F WCI 1

6HR MIN TEMP: -22; 6HR MAX TEMP: 33;



RICE LAKE CLOUDY 5 -2 74 CALM 29.80S

6HR MIN TEMP: -26; 6HR MAX TEMP: 10;



LADYSMITH CLOUDY 4 -2 75 S5 29.78F WCI -5

6HR MIN TEMP: -23; 6HR MAX TEMP: 13;



EAU CLAIRE CLOUDY 9 0 67 S3 29.80F

6HR MIN TEMP: -16; 6HR MAX TEMP: 9;



NEW RICHMOND CLOUDY 12 6 74 SW6 29.78F WCI 3

6HR MIN TEMP: -18; 6HR MAX TEMP: 31;



OSCEOLA CLOUDY 10 3 72 CALM 29.80F

Here at the office sitting at 5 with cloudy skies, light snow/ flurries…Winds South 2.5 MPH

How cold was it this morning?

Cold enough for you? many people are asking is it going to warm up? Well yes it will starting tonight temps should only hit either side of zero then warm into the middle 30s to upper 30, with a few 40s possible across the FA this weekend…. The warm air keeps a hold on the FA right through Wed… with middle to upper 30s.. Again some areas could easy float into the lower 40s…. See forecast below for more info…..


So how cold is it right now? Let’s look at the current conditions as of 8 AM…

SUPERIOR -13

ASHLAND -14

HAYWARD -24

SIREN -22

RICE LAKE -22

LADYSMITH -20

EAU CLAI -19

NEW RICHMOND -13

OSCEOLA -15

Here at the office -24.

Temps as of 7 AM are as follows..

SUPERIOR -15

ASHLAND -18

HAYWARD -26

SIREN -22

RICE LAKE -25

LADYSMITH -22

EAU CLAIRE -20

NEW RICHMOND -15

OSCEOLA -17

Here at the office -26

Let’s see what the overnight lows dropped to shall we….
Lows this morning occurred at 7 AM…..This should be the last of this type of Arctic air for sometime… Maybe until next winter….. With that said temps still could fall below zero… The chances of seeing middle to up teens and lower to middle 20s below is very low.. Climatology suggest this also…. So if you hate this cold winter we have had, you will love the forecast as a much welcomed warm up is on its way!

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Weather pattern is about to change…. Just how long will it last, find out below…A big warm up still in the forecast…We just got to get through tonight and tomorrow night then smooth sailing….Highs by the weekend into the 30s….Will also be a chance for some light snows from time to time…. No big snow storms in the forecast…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 10 AM skies are sunny across the FA… Temps range from 0 to -4….Winds West/Northwest from 3 to 14 MPH across the area… Wind chills still cold, ranging from -12 to -19….

Some overnight lows….(coldest)

Hayward… -18°

Osceola… -17°

Here at the office.. -15°

Ladysmith… -14°

Siren… -13°

Rice Lake Airport… -11°



***FORECAST DISCUSSION/ANALYSIS***

Low pressure is centered over Northeastern TX this morning, meanwhile a large ridge of high pressure covers an area from WY and points East and North… Low pressure is found up in Canada the pressure gradient still rather strong between the two features, allowing for rather windy conditions from time to time.. This as help the temps from really falling off last night, though still cold…The Arctic high pressure is forecasted to move closer to the area so winds will slack off...This will allow for temps to be colder tonight…..Thursday WAA slowly kicks in this will allow for clouds to slowly move back into the area…. Temps tomorrow will a little warmer than the last few days…Light snow break out across the area Thursday night, though chances seem low at this time, however with the warm air over riding the cold doom won’t take much lift to get some light snow/flurries going….More WAA kicks in for Saturday so will keep light snow/flurries going…Still really up in the air on rather to keep light snow/flurries going for Sunday under partly cloudy skies or just run with partly cloudy skies… Reason is Sunday night and Monday most models are pointing at more light snow/flurries..Thinking is will run with partly cloudy skies with a scattering of light snow showers/flurries….As stated above temps are forecasted to ramp up into the lower to middle 30s this weekend…. I would not be shocked to see a few 40s throughout my far Southern Counties… The warm air keeps flowing in as a large upper level ridge builds into the Central CONUS…. Will keep highs in the lower to middle 30s for now… May have to warm them some….Lows will start well below zero then warm to the lower to middle 20s this weekend….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FEB 16TH – FEB 25TH ***

Western states become stormy…Meanwhile we will still be warm… Next chance at precip come about the 16th -17th time frame… This could fall as rain throughout much of the FA as a frontal boundary works East … Low pressure system is forecasted to eject out of the Western states into Northeast CO by the 18th this will keep the Southerly winds flowing into the area, hence keeping us warm…. May be pushing 40 or higher by this time frame….Later in the day of the 18th the low pressure system is forecast to be over East central IA with short-wave just North of MN this will allow thickness values to fall back off so will have a chance at rain then snow… Meanwhile a large trof of cold air builds into the Western states….. Late Friday night into Saturday morning my Central and Northern areas could be dealing with accumulating snows… Depending on how fast the colder air can get into the system will be the main factor on how much snow shall fall….So there will be another shot of colder air from this point through the 23rd before the upper level ridge builds out West and pushes back into the forecast area on the 24th the Warmer air does get pushed a little South of the FA on the 25th… However by this point in time most of the COUNS is warmer…. There may still be some cooler temps off and on… Overall temps do look to warm up rather nice… Any shot of cold air looks short-lived … Only system that will need to be watched is the one for the 18th/19th …..

*** YOUR FORECAST***

TODAY… Sunny highs from 5 to 10.Winds West/Northwest 10 to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT… Most clear lows from -10 to -20… Winds becoming light/calm.

THURSDAY…. Increasing clouds with highs from 10 to 15. Winds South/southwest 5 to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy small chance of light snow/flurries. Lows from 0 to 5…

FRIDAY…. Cloudy small chance of light snow/flurries. Highs 20 to 25.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly Cloudy small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows 10 to 15.

SATURDAY… Cloudy small chance of light snow/flurries. Highs from 28 to 34.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy small chance of light snow/flurries…. Lows 20 to 25.

SUNDAY – MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with small chances of light snow/flurries… High lower to middle 30s with lows in the lower 20s with upper teens for Monday night.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny… Highs lower to middle 30s…..

Note Some 40s could be realized throughout this time frame…..Along with 40s possible in the beginning of the long term forecast….

Lake Superior

Yesterday Derek and I headed to Lake Superior… I could not believe ice as far as you can see.. Found some cool ice formations, it was a fun filled day… For the most part didn’t seem to cold till we got over by the light house..That was thanks to the off shore winds…