Saturday, February 19, 2011

Snowstorm to effect the area..

Looking at the 06z runs…. GFS and NAM models now have tracked the storm back South compared their 0z runs…..We have decided to blend just about all the computer models to come up with this forecast and along with the snowfall map….. As we see it the low pressure will track from Northeastern CO to Southern IA by 12z Monday then track across Northern IL South of the windy City over to Southeastern OH/Southwestern PA… As a rule this track would place the heaviest snow over the Southern areas…. However with a strong surge of warm air pushing in at the LLV to Middle levels this will actually push the heavier snows North.. Now if one looks at the forecasted snowfall amount from just Nam and GFS that part of the model does keep the heavier snow band to the South….Looking at other weather data would suggest to us to run with our 6 to 12 inch forecast for most of the area… There could be a few spots to see higher accumulations Map will detail that out…. Most of the 12 to 14 inch snowfalls should remain out in MN though…This storm will also have wind with it some blow and drifting will become a problem on Sunday into Sunday night… Winds from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 to 30 MPH will be possible…This will lead to near whiteout conditions… Look for the snow to start in the local area around 12 AM Sunday morning…Some areas could pick up 1 to 2 inches before day break with another 5 to 8 inches during the day….

Going to leave the above writing there just to give everyone an idea what we deal with on storm systems…..

Yes the NAM 12z is coming in. Still has the low tracking South into Southern IA… So that matches with its 06z run…. GFS is slowly coming in on it’s 12z runs now…GFS does show warmer air pushing further North which would bring the mix precip more North…. ECMWF model is also in line with the said track above… So will run with it….. See snowfall map below…