The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI....

Well hello warm temps, goodbye Arctic temps….Yesterday was the transition period as temps started off well below zero see post below… Temps did nothing but rise all day and well into the evening hrs….Forecast problems well there really isn’t too many to talk about… Snow today however that won’t be a lot...Enjoy the warm week ahead looks like it won't last too long...Still we should not see temps in the 20s below either in the longer term.... 


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

As of 12 PM temps across the area range from the middle 20s around 30…. Most stations reporting light snow Osceola reporting PC skies… Looking at the vis satellite hard to believe that…. Winds are from the South/Southeast from calm to 12 MPH……

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This late morning’s SFC charts shows a warm front over the ND/SD/Western MN…Warm front is forecasted to lift East/Northeast today this will keep snow going throughout much of the day……..We also see a Low pressure system forming along said warm front up in Canada this is forecasted to move to just North of MN by Sunday morning and washout…. Yet another low pressure system will take shape in Canada and dive Southeast toward NE MN late Sunday night…. Most if not all the dynamics remain up in Canada with said systems….My far Northern areas may see some clouds, nevertheless should still see more sun than clouds up there.. For Monday.. Snow in my Central and Southern areas will be ending later this evening… May see some patches of fog and freezing drizzle, While my Northern areas will see a mix of wintery precip right through Sunday night….The Northern areas could pick up 1 to 2 inches of snowfall today..Meanwhile across the rest of the FA look for a dusting to as much as a ½” at tops….After Sunday night high pressure takes control of our FA this will assure us warm sunny to partly cloudy days right through the Thursday… Most of next week temps should be well into the 30s with many 40s… Some computer models still hinting at upper 40s to around 50 by Thursday.. Not sure if I buy into that just yet.. Will depend if we can lose most of the snow pack…..Interesting the 500 MB winds still remain Northwest throughout this time frame…However they do become more zonal before coming more Southwesterly… Still SFC winds for the most part remain out of the South/Southwest Monday and Tuesday winds do flow from the Northwest this will help hold the temps in the middle 30s….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FEB 16TH THROUGH FEB 28TH ***

Upper level wind field will remain out of the Southwest…Both GFS and ECMWF models do show a low pressure system that we will have to watch… Right now both models not seeing eye to eye on the timing or placement of said low… No surprise there…. Let’s talk about each model…. First off GFS shows a 1000 MB moving on shore over Northern CA this low is forecasted to push into Northern NV and deepen to around 996 MBS, GFSD moves the low into Central MT and deepens it furthermore down to around 995 MBS… From there GFS moves the low to South central SD/Northern NE by late Thursday night/early Friday morning …Friday late morning early afternoon GFS has the low right over Southeast MN/Western WI/Southwestern WI area….By Late Friday night the low is forecasted to be well Northeast of MI….Pressure with this low should be around 988 MBS and then it deepens to around 977 MBS as it move through WI….. Now if this track works out the FA should be on the warm side of this system to mainly see rain showers…Could even see our first thunderstorm of the year….Rain should turn over to all snow later Friday afternoon into the evening, However there is a chance we could also see a period of freezing rain…. Way too early to even think about snowfall amount….. Ok let’s look at the ECMWF model… ECMWF has a 1000 MB low pressure system over Central NV Thursday the 17th on the 18th ECMWF moves the low over to Northeast CO and deepens it to 996 MBS… The low is than forecasted to move Northeast into far Southwest WI then towards Northeastern WI before moving into far Northeast UPI of MI, as the low makes it journey through WI it is forecasted to deepen to around 995 MBS or so…. Now if this model’s track plays out we should start with some rain before switching to snow rather fast…. This would put the FA in area of the heaviest snowfall…. Once again this is still not written in stone…. Though this system we will be watching…. As you can see the placement of the low between the models aren’t even close, however if I was to stick my neck on the chopping block I would run with the ECWMF model just do to its excellent track record this winter…..So far now we will blend the two to come up with this… Saturday the 19th we will keep some snow wording to cover any wrap around moisture, mainly in the morning… Meanwhile a 1024 high pressure digs it’s self into ND/SD high is forecasted to move into MN this should clear our skies Saturday afternoon… A low pressure system will be taken shape across Co on Sunday this system is forecasted to stay well South of the FA, however looks like an invert trof will set up… This should give us a chance of some light snow… Meanwhile Southern WI could be dealing with heavy snows.. So a near miss for the FA on the 20th … Next chance of snow comes in around the 22nd/ 23rd time frame… This system may be a another big snow event for the area, though as of right now the heaviest snow looks to fall just South of the FA… Another shot at snow moves back in for the 25th /26th time frame….With a chance of rain for the 28th….. Temps through this time frame start off rather warm…Then temps do become colder once again…. As of right now looks like the main core of the Arctic air will remain to our North/Northeast…. Not saying we won’t have some cold lows and highs… Lows could get below zero once again through this forecast cycle… With highs in the teens….. Temps do warm up close to 30 by the end of this cycle…… So enjoy this warm week we have coming up doesn’t look like it will last after that….. Though this forecast cycle is way out in time… So let’s hope it changes…..

***YOUR FORECAST***

THE REST OF TODAY…. Cloudy with snow likely 1 to 2 inches Northern areas…. Around a ½ inch elsewhere’s.. Highs 30 to 33… South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH…

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy…. Winter mix up North.. Lows around 25 to 28 winds… Southwest light to 5 to 10 MPH

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy, while Northern areas mostly cloudy with a wintery mix…. Highs from 35 to 38… Southwest winds 5 to 15 MPH….

SUNDAY NIGHT… Mostly cloudy…. Up North cloudy with a wintery mix…. Lows middle 20s… Winds becoming West 10 to 20 MPH and gusty…

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY….
Partly cloudy to sunny with highs in the middle to upper 30s with some 40s… Lows in the Middle to upper 20s…..