Thursday, February 17, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Last warm day…. We will have to deal with fog the rest of the morning into the early afternoon hrs along with drizzle and.. How warm will temps go today? This will be tricky.… Then the main story will be the cooler temps along with windy conditions for tonight through Friday….Ok let’s talk about all this more in depth….


At 11 am all stations reporting cloudy skies and fog, along with drizzle and light rain… Temps range from the lower 40s … Warm spot is up in Ashland 46 °…


Cold front is working through Eastern ND, and SD this morning.. A warm front is across Central IA should remain just South of the FA it may get as far North as EAU, nevertheless temps are warm and should get warmer.. For the most part upper 40s to lower 50s will be possible throughout the FA… Could see a few middle 50s in my Southern areas…This will depend if fog and low clouds lift out and we get more breaks that excepted. Tonight cold front will work its Eastwards into and through the FA… This will allow winds to switch to the West/Northwest as CAA kicks in….Winds are forecasted to increase to 20 to 25 MPH tonight with gusts up to 35 MPH..Friday winds will still be problem will keep winds from the 20 to 25 MPH range with gusts still around 30 to 35 MPH….Temps will be cooler on Friday middle 20s seem plausible…. The weekend is shaping up to be dry with normal temps…. Could see a few snow showers Saturday night as a weak system moves the area….Chances look rather small…Forecasting model took what could have been a major snowstorm for the parts of the FA for Sunday/Monday and have now shifted it well South.. Track now lines up as so….. Low pressure over CO is forecasted to move into Northern MO then through Central IL…Will keep a small chance of light snow/flurries in the forecast… High pressure move back into the FA for late Monday night through Wednesday….Temps shall remain near normal…..


ECMWF model has a 992 MB low pressure system over Southeastern CO/Northwestern part of the TX Panhandle on the 25th said low is forecasted to track into Southern MN/Southwestern WI it does weaken to around 994 MBS from there the low is forecasted to push into upstate NY..If this track plays out the FA could be dealing accumulating snows on the 26th….on the 26th we see a 1000 MB low pressure system over Northwestern CO… Looking at the GFS model…996 MB low pressure is over the same spot however its there on the 24th…. GFS moves the low to upstate NY by the 25th… If this is the case we would see light snow do to the speed of the system… After that GFS as a 1034 MB high pressure system building into much of the upper Midwest…..Just to note GFS 06z run is a little slower with the moving the low to upstate NY it has the low over OH by the 25th on the 26 we find a weak area of low pressure over Canada that is forecasted to drop into the area on the 27th so will run with some light snow on this day as well, though moisture seems to be little to none thanks to a storm system to our South… Next chance of snow comes in around the Mar 1st time frame…Will hold onto snow through the 2nd as WAA over rides the cooler dome of air…the 3rd Low pressure is forecasted to be around Northeast NE this will allow for warmer air to move Northwards this should change the snow to rain across my Southern areas and parts of my Central areas…. Meanwhile parts of Central areas could be dealing with a mixture with all snow North of there…By early the 4th low pressure is forecasted to be over Northeastern WI… This will allow for CAA to kick back in changing the mix and rain back over to all snow…Still should see some snow around for the 5th …Looking at the temps… We start this period on the cold side..Temps do warm back to normal by Mar 1st by the 5th we cool back off to below normal once again….


TODAY…… Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle…. Temps around 50… Winds South/Southwest around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with a few flurries..Winds becoming West/Northwest 20 to 25 MPH with gusts 30 to 35 MPH. Lows around 20/

FRIDAY….. Partly cloudy, windy winds West Northwest 20 to 25 MPH with gusts 30 to 35 PMH..Highs in the middle 20s

FRIDAY NIGHT….. Mostly cloudy wind decreasing to 10 to 15 MPH them calm… Lows around 10.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… Cloudy highs upper 20s with lows middle teens… Could see some flurries around Sat night.

SUNDAY… Partly cloudy highs lower to middle 20s.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a small chance of light snow lows around 10….

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with small chance of light snow highs around 20 lows around 10…

TUSEDAY/WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny on Tuesday highs upper 20s… lows around 15…. Wednesday partly cloudy highs lower 30s lows upper teens….