Saturday, October 8, 2011

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI.

Forecast concerns…. To run with PC or MC wording for today….Do we bring in shower wording to the forecast sooner than previous forecast has…How long to keep showers going….No matter what we hash out one thing is for sure, we are about to get knocked back into reality this coming work week…. Longer term looks to be cold…Still no snow is foreseen across the upper Midwest….. Time to hash all the concerns out….


Map below shows the current SFC frontal boundaries and pressure systems….

At 10 AM temps are in the upper 60s to low 70s, under cloudy skies….Winds are still rather gusty out of the S/SW from 12 to 17 MPH with gusts up to 20 to 22 MPH….Dewpoint temps lower to middle 50s.

Radar is showing some showers and a few thunderstorms over MN... They are tracking towards the Northeast around 50 to 60 kts....We will have to watch this in case they do clip our far Northwestern Counties,though highly unlikely.....


Large ridge of high pressure is centered over the Eastern states, however this still has a hold on our weather…This has kept the cold front out over MN along with showers and thunderstorms….. Looking at the 500 MB chart we find ridging out East and far West with a rather large trough throughout the Rockies into the Southwestern States…. We find a low pressure system just South of Hudson Bay Canada, and another upper level low centered over western CO….This is all evident on the water vapor imagery, and on the RCU model, Nam is rather close to with these features…GFS 00z run was a little off, however it 06z run is rather close now….Cold front is stalled out over MN and we see this frontal boundary camping over there today and tonight…In fact the cold front won’t really reach our FA until Sunday night/early Monday…Then it is forecasted to lift back North as a warm front…Meanwhile a SFC low pressure is forecasted to lift North into Northwestern MN… This is forecasted to drag another cold front into Western MN by late Sunday night into early Monday morning. This cold front shall push through the area late Monday afternoon…See no reason not to run with some rain showers….Temps really won’t take a dive until another cold front races towards and through the area by midweek….Temps are forecasted to fall back to near or slightly below normal by then…Temps may not even make it out of the 40s by Friday…..
Thought about keep temps in range of the last few days, however with the clouds around I will knock them down to the 70 to 75 range….Now if clouds thin out and we get more sunshine temps will not have a problem heading for the upper 70s to lower 80s once again, this will hold true for tomorrow as well….Have decided to pull rain chances from tonight and Sunday/Sunday night and Monday….We did talk about that in the previous forecast below.


TODAY THROUGH MONDAY…..Sunny to partly cloudy, highs 77 to 82 with lows ranging from 50 to 60.

MONDAY NIGHT… Slight chance of showers, lows 50 to 55.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers… Highs 60 to 70 lows 50 to 55.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm.. Highs 65 to 70 lows 45 to 50.

THUR/THUR NIGHT… Partly cloudy… Highs 55 to 60 lows 35 to 40.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy… Highs 45 to 50… Lows 30 to 35.


Main story in this period shall be the temps, as we will drop to well below normal for highs….There shall be off and on chances of showers throughout the period…. The 16 through the 18 and then once again on the 20th and 21st then on the 22nd…. Really hard to time shower chances this far out and long term models aren’t really agreeing…. One thing is for certain is no snow is forecasted for the upper Midwest!!..... The 540 line remains well to the North of us, the one day that is does drop into the area the moisture is already gone….


15TH…. Dry highs 40 to 45 lows 30 to 35

16th…. Chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

17th….. Morning showers than dry highs 40 to 45 lows 25 to 30

18th… slight chance of showers highs 40 to 45 lows 30 to 35

19th … Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

20th….. Slight chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 30 to 35

21st ….. Slight chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

22nd….. Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

23rd….. Chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

23th….. Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40.