Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI.

Forecast looks to be a rather wet one starting this afternoon and lasting through Thursday evening….Then we shall get into another dry cycle from Friday through the weekend
Will bring a chance of showers back into the forecast early next week and hold the chances right through the first part of the long term forecast…Still feel there is no chance of snow in the upper Midwest, though ECMWF model is hinting at some rain snow mix for Monday night….Note this just showed up so I won’t jump on the wagon right now…We will keep watching trends to see if GFS model also switches to a Southerly track of this system….Thinking is if a rain snow mix is to occur it would be over far Northern MN…. We will watch this…..For now will leave snow mix out of the forecast!. The long term we do see our better chance at a rain mix snow for the 26th and early part of the 27th see long term dis.& forecast for that.


At 11 AM radar is showing showers and thunderstorms over parts of MN.This areas of showers and storms is tracking toward the North/Northwest this should miss the area, however there is another batch of showers and thunderstorms over Eastern IA this is moving North wards this will effect the area later this afternoon.
Temps for the most part are in the middle 60s….Skies are partly cloudy, winds from the South from 5 to 12 MPH...
Here is the SFC weather map for today.


The main problem we will deal with during this period will be the first part then the later part…
One short wave moving North through MN this won’t effect the local FA….The next short wave is already moving into Southwestern MN…Meanwhile we find a low pressure system Just North of Central ND and a trailing cold front into Western MN down into far Northwestern KS. This cold front is forecasted to move into Cental MN this afternoon…This will bring in showers and thunderstorms….LI is running -1 to -2 along with Cape of 1000 to 1400 J/KG…..This system will be rather slow to move out,also another weak low/ short wave is forecasted to form over Southwestern IA..This is forecasted to run up along the frontal boundary into Southwestern WI early tomorrow morning…A secondary cold front is forecasted to push into the FA late Thursday night early Friday morning…So will keep showers ongoing through Friday morning, however will not run with thunderstorm wording after midnight tonight. Looks like everything is coming together for some healthy rainfall amount through much of MN and WI….Looks like 1.00” of rain will be likely from Washburn County down through Pepin County of WI, into Wabasha into Central Winona into Houston Counties of MN points West of this line should see from 0.25 up to 0.75 inches of rain….The winners of this rain shall be found from Parts of Rusk County down through Chippewa EAU, Clark, Jackson, Trempealeau La Crosse, Monroe,Vernon Counties of WI back in far Northwestern IA Counties…Here we could see rainfall amount close in on 1.25 to 1.50 inches of rain.
Friday this system clears the area, winds should be on the increase as we see some good mixing down could see winds gust close to 30 MPH for a time….The weekend looks to be dry and nice temps slightly below normal under pc skies….Monday should be dry for most of the day, Monday night we do see a chance of showers coming back into the forecast….


TODAY…. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon…Highs 65 to 70. S/SE winds 5 to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers lows 50 to 55. Light winds.

THURSDAY… Showers highs 55 to 60.W/NW 5 to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Showers ending, lows around 40 W/NW 5 to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY…. PC windy highs 50 to 55. Winds W/NW 10 to 20 MPH with gusts from 25 to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT… PC lows 35 to 40.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs in the 50s lows in the 30s to 40s.

MONDAY…. PC highs 50 to 55.

MONDAY NIGHT… Chance of showers lows 35 to 40

TUESDAY…. Chance of showers…. Highs 45 to 50 lows 30 to 35.


Main story here will be the cold temps…We will see temps fall to below norms through this period…There will be a chance of rain showers on the 19th and early morning hours of the 20th then a dry spell from the 20th through 23….With another shot of rain showers from the 25th through the 27th .....The the late night of the 26th and early morning hours of the 27 we could see out first snow flakes of the season….This would not come as a shock as last year we picked up a 0.25 inches of snow see picture below the long term forecast…..We will have to watch this… We will add snow mix wording into the forecast to account for this….


19TH … Cloudy a chance of showers. Highs 40 to 45 lows in the 30s.

20th Early morning showers,than dry highs in the 40s lows in the 30s

21st THOUGH the 24th ….Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40.

25th … A chance of showers in the late in the day. Highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40.

26th. Chance of showers highs 45 to 50…. Overnight showers possibly mixing with snow lows 30 to 35

27th chance of showers possibly mix with snow in the morning hours… Highs 40 to 45 lows 30 to 35.

28th Dry highs in the 40s lows in the 30s.

Here are two pictures from last year when we had our first snowfall of the season.