Friday, February 17, 2012

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems….Not to many in the short term….Snow still a good bet for Monday night and Tuesday….This is about the only problem….More on this later….. Long term looks like a possible full blown winter storm to end Feb and usher in March…..More one this later….Early morning snowfall amounts were light as thought…. ¼ inch seems to have been the rule throughout my Northern areas. With just a trace in my central areas…..1/4 here at the office.

At Noon…. Skies are mostly cloudy through my Central and Eastern areas….So clearing has been taking place over my far Western areas…This trend should give most areas a chance at some sun before the next batch of clouds spin South from the departing area of low pressure….Temps are in the lower to middle 30 at this hour……

Weak area of low pressure/short wave is working its way through the FA .Currently the weak low is found over Eastern MN/Western WI over in Southwestern Polk County…Low will trek East slightly Southeast should be out of the area after 1 PM or so ……Radar is showing only flurries now and they are scattered..This will end soon if it hasn’t already…..Low will drag a cold front through the area as well….
A rather large area of 1026 MB high pressure is forecasted to move towards the area this evening….So flurries shall be coming to end could even see skies clear out tonight. For now will run with mostly cloudy….
This weekend is looking like a home run if you like sunny skies and warm temps….This hold true right through much of Monday…..Monday night through Tuesday still up in the air to what will really take place…..1 Will there be a SFC low to form…2 or will there just be a long wave to move through…Why is this important? Well if a long wave moves through the area there will be a widespread chance of precip with snow in the North and rain snow mixed in my Central areas with mostly rain with some mix in my Southern areas…..Also noted precip would be lighter……If a low pressure forms this would allow for more of a confined areas of heavier precip in a smaller area….Looking at NAM model 12z runs more less show a long wave moving through, meanwhile GFS has a low pressure system forming over CO Sunday night/early Monday morning and moves it to Southeastern MN then through Central WI……If this pans out we could be dealing with more than a few inches of snow…..Looking at the ECMWF low forms just East of CO then is forecasted to move Northeast up into Southeastern MN then through Northeast WI into the UP of MI….This would give us more snow than GFS does and would give more of the FA more snow….Looking at a few other models best way to run is to blend most together. Big range in snow amounts 1 to 2 in my Southern areas.
1 to 3 in my Central areas…. 2 to 4 in my Northern areas….Seems to be the way to set this up for now… Will keep a chance of light snow going through the rest of this forecast cycle as it will really be hard to time short-waves dropping into the area…..

TODAY… Cloudy.Still could see some flurries from time to time also could see some sun.Highs 32 to 36.
TONIGHT. Most cloudy. Lows 15 to 20.
SATURDAY. Mostly sunny. Highs 28 to 32.
SATURDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 12 to 17.
SUNDAY. Sunny. Highs 30 to 35.
SUNDAY NIGHT. Clear. Lows 19 to 23.
MONDAY. Partly cloudy, increasing clouds. Highs 34 to 38.
MONDAY NIGHT.Cloudy with snow…Rain and snow in central areas. Rain with a mix South. Lows 25 to 28.
TUESDAY. Cloudy. Snow.Highs 28 to 32.
TUEDAY NIGHT. Chance of light snow. Lows 20 to 25.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A slight chance of light snow. Highs 30 to 35. Lows 23 to 26.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A slight chance of light snow. Highs 30 to 34. Lows 20 to 25.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION 23rd through Mar 4th ***
Main story through this period will be temps and the possibility of a full blown winter storm on the 27 through the 29 time frame…..
GFS already has this low to far South on it latest runs once again….However our new model has the track from Western MO into Central WI before moving into Northeastern WI…. If this all plays out we should be dealing with a major snow storm….Most of the long term models have the same track…Will throw out GFS model…… Temps will start to cool off throughout this time frame…..

24TH. Dry highs 25 to 30 lows 15 to 20
25th. Dry highs 20 to 25 lows 5 to 15
26th. Dry highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 20
27th. Snow highs 25 to 30 lows 17 to 23.
28th. Snow 20 to 25 falling… Lows -10 to -5
29th. Chance of snow highs 5 to 10 lows 0 to 5
1st. Chance of snow 20 to 25. Lows 10 to 15
2nd.Dry. highs 30 to 25 lows 15 to 20
3rd. Dry highs 25 to 30 Lows 15 to 20.
4th. Chance of snow highs 25 to 30 lows 15 to 20.

Overall looks like an active period ..With a chance of snow on the 5th and 6th. We do dry out for the 7th however another area of low pressure will effect the area on the 8th through 9th….High pressure builds back in for the 10th keeping us dry right through the 13th ….The 14th we will see a low pressure over in Southwestern ND move Southeast to Southern WI this should bring the FA another shot of snow from the 15th through the early 17th. Drying out later on the 17th should see the dry weather remain with us through 22nd. May be a chance at some sow on the 21th will run with dry for now…. 23rd another shot of snow comes into play….24th through the 26 looks to be dry….
As far as temps go…..Look for cold start, however temps do really warm up by the middle to the end of this period….In fact so much we may have to change some of the snow day to just plain old rain….Will worry about that at a later time……So most of March should bring us above normal percip, with normal to slightly above normal temps…

The extended long term forecast is an experimental product…This forecast can and almost sure it will change…..This product will not be issued every time we issue a forecast more less once a week or two….