Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

After our little brief warm up, people are now asking what happen to spring again....2013 has been a year without a spring....This weekend will feel more like a fall weekend than a spring weekend.... Normal highs...Today...66 Forecasted high of 60....-6 degree below normal....Saturday normal high is 66. Forecasted high of 48...-18 below normal...Sunday normal high is 66 forecasted high of 50...-16 below normal....Lows will be cold also...38 tonight 27 Saturday night 33 Sunday night......No spring in the Northwoods.....Monday still looks to be cold with below normal temps....Good news is there is another warm up on its way....More on that in a few......

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

All stations reporting sunny skies, temps in the lower 50s....Winds from the North/Northeast from 5 to 6 MPH..EAU reporting wind gust up to 17 MPH....

Dewpoints across the area are in the lower to middle 20s.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Look for late October/early November temps for this weekend.....For today High pressure North of Lake Superior will keep a dry cold flow over the area....This will keep skies sunny throughout the day.....Winds should begin to slacking off as we head through the afternoon....Meanwhile we will see a weak cold front move into the area later tonight, this will bring another reinforcing shot of cold air....Moisture is limited with this cold front, however we still be see a good chance of showers later tonight....Front sweeps through the area rather fast...So look for clearing skies to start your Saturday....Winds tomorrow will be brisk from the Northwest 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH...Saturday night the winds die off and under clear skies look out we could be looking a a hard freeze event, frost will be likely at the least......Sunday will shine with sunny skies, but temps will still be cold! Sunday night should see another round of frost...Monday we will see a warm front slowly starting to work its way towards the area......This should spark off some showers and thunderstorms.....Temps will still be running below normal.....Tuesday is going to be a pain in the butt with temps.....Warm front is forecasted to push into my Western areas....Now if this warm front clears the whole forecast area this would be easy...Some computer models not seeing eye to eye on far the front will make it on Tuesday....West of the warm front temps soar into the middle to upper 80s, while East of the front temps reach for the lower 80s....Warn front will have cleared the whole area Tuesday night, only to be followed by a cold front Tuesday night.....This will knock the temps back into the 70s for the rest of the week......Also there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the week....Severe thunderstorms seen unlikely at this time......

To sum it up....

This weekend will be cold, followed by a warm up, then followed by a slight cool down....Showers tonight....Then dry the rest of the weekend.....Then off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms......

Historic May major winter storm....

During the late evening hours of May 1st into the afternoon hours of May 2nd, a Historic major winter storm plowed through the area....

Rice Lake smashes an all time state record, it was the biggest snowfall in May ever on records per The Weather Channel along with other News Media....We picked up 17 inches of snow as of yesterday afternoon....We did add to that total some...But for this write we will run with 17 inches......Eau Claire also smashes a record for the top 5 snowiest May on their record books....

They picked up 8.7 inches of snow....This will rank as number one now....The last record was set back in May of 2001 where they picked up 3.3 inches of snow...Ok back to Rice Lake....

We had lots of tree damage throughout Rice Lake, with power lines being downed, This was also reported throughout Barron County, along with other parts of Western/Northwestern WI.Main tree damage was done to pine trees and older oaks and willows....If this would have been a regular spring, we would have been dealing with more tree damage do to the fact the trees would have had a good start on their leaves,which would have caught more snow.....Some trees/ large tree branches did fall on some cars causing damage to them, even some house damage was reported throughout the area....Lots of people were without power for sometime throughout Northwestern WI...Still some areas of this written still without power....

So what took place to give us this Historic snow storm....Well first off we had a cold front push through the area on Wednesday this brought down some colder temps..Then we had a slow moving upper level low pressure dive to the South, With a SFC low pressure also moving through...Both this features were able to tap into lots of moisture...The weather pattern is in a blocky pattern....There are like 5 or 6 different cut off lows....But this winter and spring we have seen this a lot.....The weather pattern really hasn't changed....Though it did for a few days when were able to get into the 70s, until this weather pattern breaks down look for colder temps and areas of rain and snow....Good news is next week looks better....Highs closer to 70.....Maybe then things will start to look up.....This major snow storm will be talked about for many years to come!!

Here are some pictures I took yesterday....The video link will be below the pictures....

Here is the link to the video I shot yesterday morning.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuvkfRf3rxI&list=UUBWwZo_RCDoIgDmRfacj7YQ&index=1

***MAJOR WINTER STORM***

 

A major winter storm is on track to slam the forecast area....A band of heavy snow will fall from Southwestern MN up through Northwestern WI...Meanwhile a band of freezing rain will fall from Southeastern MN into parts of Southwestern WI....Just expecting mainly all rain in Southern WI....Yesterday we were concerned about about how much warm air would be around before the CAA kicked in...That no longer looks to be a problem for much of the FA....Still my Southern areas will see more of a mixed of precip....We were also concerned about the drier air that is flowing into the FA....This won't be a factor anymore, but will help boost the snowfall rates as it won't be as strong, and the system will over come the drier air much faster...The somewhat drier air will enhance the lift....We should see another round of thunderstorms with heavy snow, or what we like to call thundersnow.....The only adjustments need to the forecast was to delay the start of the precip....Start it later tonight....The other adjustment that was needed was to take out the sleet wording in my Central and Northern areas....

This major winter storm will have major impacts on travel starting later tonight and lasting through tomorrow....Don't think blowing and drifting snow will be that much of a problem, as it looks like a heavy wet snow, however if we can keep some more drier air around and cool off the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere then we could see near whiteout conditions and blizzard conditions from blowing and drifting snow, along with the heavy snow that is falling.....The way everything is shaping up this looks to be the biggest winter storm that we have seen this winter 2012/2013....For storm totals see map below....

This could be a very dangerous storm....If you must travel from tonight and tomorrow, let someone know your planned route time of departure and estimated time of arrival..Carry a winter safety survival kit in your vehicle, if you become stuck remain with your vehicle and call for help...Best thing one can do is delay your travel plans...

So how much snow are we forecasting...Here is the map....

 

 

 

Forecast problems, there are many with this possible winter storm.....1 track of the low pressure....2. How much dry air will work in from the Northeast...3. Will this system draw up warmer air, or will the profiles cool off enough for more snow. 4. Will the forecasted severe thunderstorms rob a lot of moisture from flowing this far North.....Also this storm will come in waves if all plays out right.....So lets try to hash this out the best we can.....Notice this forecast is subject to change tonight or tomorrow morning....The forecast discussion will only talk about the short term...Not worried about the long term, as no big warm-ups are seeing.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Skies across the area are cloudy, winds are from the North/Northeast from 8 to 14 MPH with some gust up to 23 MPH.....Light rain is also falling across parts of the areas...Dewpoints range from the lower to middle 30s......

***FORECAST DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

A late winter major/early spring winter storm is effecting a large part of the Country, from parts of the Northern Plains into the Southern Plains...This storms has it all, Severe thunderstorms to snow...Looking at the WV satellite loop we can clearly see the center of this storm in the four corners area..Another are of low pressure forming over KS, a little harder to see but it is there.....Looking at the NAM model it shows this area of 995 low pressure in the South Central part of NM... So that as the center of low a little too far South then what is seen on the WV imagery...NAM throws this area of low pressure into far Southern TX, but spins up another area of low pressure over KS then pushes that on into Northern MO, then pushes the low into the windy city, then into the Northern OH, Meanwhile a large 1034 MB high pressure system over Hudson Bay is trying to kick dry air South into the area....Time to see what GFS model shows us...GFS 12z run...The Analysis chart show the low right were it should be at...Also it shows a 1038 MB high pressure center over MT reaching up towards Hudson Bay...We do see this model also runs the low into Southern TX, and also form another one over KS GFS takes the KS low on the same track as the NAM model....Lets take a look at the ECMWF model.....Shows about the same as NAM/GFS....Only thing different is the track of the low.....The EC takes the low out of KS then moves it Northeast towards Southwestern WI, then into Northern part of MI....All model pointing at severe thunderstorms down South...Just how much will this effect our FA.....Could be a lot, if thunderstorms are ongoing this will allow for moisture flowing this far North to be less.....Not only that if we get more drier air flowing into our FA from the Northeast this will also play havoc on the precip amounts, as the moisture will go into saturation..The other problem will be, can the Colum cool fast enough for more snow, than a wintery mix...On top of that the storm track is not even close to be set in stone, as we have seen the past few days...One day its South the next run it North, the run after that is back South, now its back North.....So it is a very compacted forecast still.....

So far now the best way to run is to blend all the models and their members along with the ensemble members together to come up with this forecast.....

We will run with a track from SW KS into Northern IL then into Southern MI....We will bank on the drier air from the Northeast to become saturated with this first wave pushing into the area now, and keep the atmosphere saturated in between breaks of the precip....The hardest part now is to figure out how much moisture flowing Northwards will be robbed by the severe thunderstorms down South....For now with blending the models....we should have enough moisture making into the FA.....We should see enough cooling as profiles suggest to switch from a wintery mix on Wednesday to all snow by Wednesday night....If this indeed does happen we should see around 4 to 6 inches of snow throughout my Central and Northern areas, while 2 to 4 inches of snow in parts of my Southern areas, with lesser amounts in my far Southern areas....Now if we can get CAA sooner like on Wednesday morning, we could end up with more snow throughout my Central and Northern areas.....My far Southern areas will still see a wintery mix and they will remain close to rain/snow line....

Today.... Look for a few areas of rain, main areas will be in my Southern areas.Though we will still see rain in my Northern areas..Highs for today should be in the middle 30s with some upper 30s.

Tonight....Snow/sleet in my Central and Northern areas with rain mixing with some snow/sleet in my Southern areas, all rain in my far Southern areas.... Lows tonight upper 20s to lower to middle 30s Far Southern areas...

Tomorrow....Sleet/snow central/Northern areas....Rain in my Southern areas....Highs middle 30s to upper 30s lower 40s Southern areas....

Tomorrow Night.... Sleet/snow becoming all snow in my Central and Northern areas, snow could be heavy at times winter mix in my Southern areas, with all rain possibly mix with some sleet/snow in my far Southern areas...

Thursday....Snow snow could be heavy at times in my Central and Northern areas, maybe into my Northern Southern areas....Wintery mix in my far Southern areas....

Total snow amounts from the storm 4 to 6 inches Central/Northern areas....Could see some local 8 inches reports.....2 to 4 inches of snow in my Southern areas, with maybe 1 an inch or two in my far Southern areas.....

Notice short term forecasts will handle it from here on out, so any updated will be found there......

Really not much change is needed in the ongoing forecast below....Forecast concerns, Temps, and precipitation chances this weekend and type....Will try to hash this all out.....

 

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

 

Temps have made a nice recovery...Temps now in the middle 30s across the FA with mostly sunny skies....Still a few high clouds around,but those will be thinning....Winds are light out of the Southeast...

 

***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

 

Two concerns we have in the short term...1 how high to run with temps...2 precip and what types.

First out of the gates will be the temps.....High pressure system will slowly being pushing off to the East...Last night temps dropped like a rock to a low of 14....Northwest flow will slowly be giving way to a Southwesterly flow tomorrow....Three main players that will make temps a pain in the butt..1 The deep snow pack throughout the upper Midwest....Though a few pockets of snow free areas do reside over Southwestern MN....Then basically snow free in NE/KS....2....Cloud cover will also play havoc on the temps....3 Models not picking up on the snow pack, which is leading to higher temps forecasted by them......Clouds that we currently have should be thinning out today.....This will allow for temps to warm into the 40s today...However if clouds hang around longer than forecast look for temps upper 30s to lower 40s versus lower to middle 40s....So today temps are rather easy to forecast.....Tomorrow is another whole new book....

With some snow melt likely today, will there be enough to form fog tonight, if so how thick will it be....Profiles don't show fog formation, however again models have really no clue how deep the snow pack is....If tomorrow turns out to more sun than clouds temps will shoot towards normal or a few degrees warmer...ATTM I refuse to forecast temps in the lower 50s....For all the said reasons above...Either way tomorrow will be warmer than Saturday...Friday night the shortwave will begin to effect the FA...Moisture will flow into the area, this lead to an increasing chances of freezing rain this should last through the early morning hours on Saturday before the all rain is forecast.....Temps on Saturday will for sure be held down to the lower 40s with clouds and rain around, right now profile reading do show all rain on Saturday..Could be a few thunderstorms working their way into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.....Saturday night we will see the rain mix and change over to all snow as a cold front blasts through the area...Best moisture and forcing is off to the East....Still may be able to get a fast 1/2 to an 1 of snow...Winds will be on the increase like wise...10 to 20 MPH...Sunday will be cold with highs falling through the day as they head for a low in the teens once again, and winds 10 to 20 MPH with gust reaching up towards 30 MPH....Monday still could see a a few light snow showers around.....Monday night lows fall back into the teens after only reaching upper 20s to lower 30s for highs....Temps slow to warm to the lower 40s by Wednesday....

To sum it up...Short warm up, followed by more winter feeling airmas.....No spring big long lasting warm ups through this time frame.....

 

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION APRIL 4TH THROUGH APRIL 14th***

 

Next chance of snow looks to come in around the 4th this looks to be a light event...April 5th/6th we see a stronger system pushing into the area...This could end up being an all rain event for the FA...We will have systems lineup one right after another through Tuesday the 9th could see more rain than snow, however we will have to watch to see how the profiles really setup and where they setup along with the track of each system...If they move more South we could be dealing will rain/snow events...The 10th looks really interesting....A system move into Southeastern WI, this will drag down more cold air....This will chance the rain over to snow in the early morning hours....Next chance of snow comes in about the 13th....Looks like more of a winter pattern setting up than spring.....Temps will avg slightly to way below normal through this time frame....

To sum this time frame up...

Colder than avg with above normal precip....More of a winter pattern than a spring pattern.....Winter 2012/2013 lives on....

If the CFS model is right we should start to see spring take over towards the latter part on mid April through the end of the month.....

Forecast below this post stands as is...See no reason to change it....
No spring yet! Sure temps will warm but as you can see on the 6-10 day outlook and on the 8 to 14 day outlook we will remain below normal....I still think we will see at least 2 more snow events with > than 4 inches of snow...Putting my neck on the chopping block on this one, I still think we will see 4 more snow events with > than 1 inch of snow..So to recap, yes we will see wamrmer temps, yes we will see some melting....No the warmer temps won't last long, yes we will stay below normal for this time of year...Enjoy spring 2013! wait I'm mean the lasting winter of 2012/2013! Spring won't be here until late April or early May.....No wishcasting here! Just the hard cold facts....

Main story in the weather dept, this week is dry conditions and a slow warming trend.....Could see temps go slightly above normal by weeks end, however temps will avg below normal for this time of year....No big warm-ups as far as one can see.Thanks to the deep snow pack throughout much of the midwest and along with areas to our South/Southeast again...In fact could be dealing with a snow event come around the 3/4 of April....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 10 AM skies range from sunny to mostly cloudy...Temps range from to middle to upper 20s....Winds are out of the North from 6 to 10 MPH.....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION(THIS WHOLE WEEK)

The jetstream remains well to our South and West...Currently The jet is diving out of Canada into the Western parts of ND, and SD Down into Northern TX, then heads back to the Northeast through Northern GA into NC.This has kept us in a Northwesterly flow for sometime...This is forecasted to flatten out some tomorrow, but will still be setup way to our South....Looking at the Satellite imagery we see clouds moving from the East/Northeast towards the West/Southwest, as the weather pattern remains in its blocky state of mind....Drier air as worked into our FA so do think the clouds will thin as the day goes along, Still should be enough clouds(partly cloudy) around to keep temps held down in the lower 30s for today...Low level moisture will aid in more clouds for tonight...Temps tonight should fall into the teens.....Tomorrow under more sun filled skies temps will warm a degree or two...Will fall back into the teens tomorrow night...Story here is we warm a degree or two each passing day this week in highs and lows...By Saturday we should hit the upper 30s to near 40, which is still well below normal by 7 degrees...Same hold true for Sunday...This March will go down as colder than normal and wetter than normal for the area....Looking for temps in the 50s one will have to head way into IA!

To sum this week up up.....Dry conditions with a very slow warming trend into the upcoming weekend.

Confidence level is high.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION(APRIL 1ST THROUGH APRIL 10TH)

Looks like April will keep seeing below normal temps through this time frame, with another shot at rain mixing and changing over to all snow on the 3/4th...Low pressure is forecasted to move Northeast from Central KS into Southeastern IA then into Southeastern WI...This low should draw up enough warm air to produce showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two to start with, cold air get sucked into this system rather fast...This will lead to rain mixing with and changing over to all snow for the area....After this system passes through look for drier conditions, before our next system moves into the area for the 9th/10th. Should see a rain/snow mix with this system...

Confidence level is mod to high.

***LOOKING INTO ALL OF APRIL***

This will be the month of transition....We should see temps running below normal right through the middle part of the month....Then a ray of hope....Temps looks to warm to above normal...Does appear to look like the real spring will begin to take over....However with that said this is so far out there in time, anything can happen....

Confidence level this far out is very low.

Are you ready for more snow? Well if not you best better be…..We got two more clipper systems to did with through early Saturday, then what could be a winter storms for late Sunday night through early Tuesday morning….More on this in a little…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At Noon skies across the FA are Sunny, some high clouds still noted on the sat imagery….Temps for the most part are in the middle to upper 20s…..Winds have decreased and are around 5 MPH….However over in Ladysmith winds are still gusty…Gusts up to 17 MPH…Their winds should be slacking off in an hour or so….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY***

 

SFC map shows a 1033 MB high pressure from just South of Hudson Bay Canada extending down into the Northern Plains per NAM…GFS and EC Shows a weaker high pressure system….Nevertheless that won’t have much impact on the weather for today…Low pressure that has brought us snow showers throughout the day yesterday has now cleared the area to our East….For today we should see mostly to sunny to skies some high clouds at this hour should dissipate…This will be short-lived as looking at the WV imagery we see out next weak system pushing into MT/ND….We should see clouds on the increase tonight…Light snow is also possible at 2 AM or so….Not looking at any accumulations…..Tomorrow….We shall see cloudy skies once again with more light snow….1 inch of snow will be possible, mainly over my central and Northern areas…..Less than ½ inch over my Southern zones….Friday and Friday night this system will be moving through the area….Should see 1 to 3 inches of snow throughout my Central and Northern areas maybe as much as 4 inches is a few areas…..My Southern areas should see a wintery mix and then just a rain snow mix…We could see 1 maybe 2 inches of snow down in those areas…That will depend on how warm the upper layers remains….Saturday night and Sunday…Look for a rest period from the snow…..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY***

A strong low pressure system is forecasted to move along my Southern Counties of the FA….This will do two things….1 keep the heavy band of snow over my Central and Northern areas…2 Keep my far Southern areas all rain…..However most of the FA shall see snow…..More South from Southern MN into Southwestern WI looks to be an all rain event with a little snow mixing in as the low departs the area….After that we get another little break in the actions….

What is interesting EC show a another strong storm system effecting the areas for late next week….Once again this should bring snow to my Central and Northern areas, while my Southern areas should see all rain……I’m not going to get carried away about this system this far out in time…..

Temps throughout this whole time frame will be slightly below normal…..

Here is a picture of one of the snow showers that moved through the area last evening this put down a fast 1/2" of snow, then shortly after that we had another snow shower move through.That one also put down another 1/2" of snow..Very heavy snow at times..Total snowfall from yesterday was 2 inches.

 

Last March

People are asking, "where is Spring?"
Well after last March (2012)

people got spoiled….Yes most of last march was very warm, highs in the 50s to 60s across much of the area, with no snow to speak of.Last March there was only 2 snow days and that was on the 2^nd and 3^rd  which brought us 2.50” of snow….So far this March we have had  5 snow days…the 4^th/5^th 8^th 10^th 11^th…. So far this March we have seen 20” of snow… On the average we see 10.2” of snow in March, so we are well over that…..What was interesting…Back in 2011 we were also above normal in the snowfall dept…Coming in at 14” of snow…..Back in 2010 we also had a warm March were we had temps in the 60s that broke records….Temps this March have been a tad below normal so far…..

So before all you spring weather lovers get carried away by saying spring is here, well no its not yet….Look what happen last year after a very warm March, we got snow in April, and to put even more of a damper on you, there has been a few years we had seen snow in the first part of May….In fact just back in 2011 we saw that….So spring lovers, keep it real and keep it in check! As you all know this time of year is a time for change yes we should see warm days but we still will see more snow….

Once May gets here, after the first week then you can say spring is here….The calendar says Spring starts on March 20^th however as we all know,  weather does not run on a time frame….Just like watch boxes…..You can have severe weather outside the watch box area, as we have seen many times……

Last night's/early moring snowfall reports.

Last night’s and early morning snowfall reports…..This storm system did shift a little more to the West and North….Not by much as you will see, but it was enough to bring us 5 inches of snow here at the office…

Snowfall reports in my Northern areas…

Here at the office 5 inches of snow…Barron 2 inches of snow…Cumberland 3.5 inches of snow….Rice Lake 3.5 inches..

Snowfall reports from my Central areas.

Chetek 4.3 inches of snow. Jim Falls 5.3 inches of snow…Menomonie 5 inches of snow…

Snowfall reports in my Southern areas.

Eau Claire reported 8.8 inches of snow… Colfax reported 7 inches of snow…Ellsworth 4.6 inches of snow….

Snowfall reports in my Western areas.

Clear Lake 1 inch of snow…..

***Note these reports are preliminary***

Some pictures and a video link of today’s snow event….. In other news we got a few emails stating that, those people would like us to forecast for their area…..So with that said we are kicking the idea around about over taken Weather 4 You……Plus we will also expand our forecast to the West to include East Central MN…More on this in the upcoming days!!! Some snowfall amounts to the  right in the short term forecast...Here at the office ....Oh wait you will have to wait to tomorrow for this...Plus we will have the updated amounts then.....

Link to video is here..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwtkT3xzzJI&list=UUBWwZo_RCDoIgDmRfacj7YQ&index=1

 

Time for a few pictures….

Forecast concerns…..Well there really isn’t any…..Still looks like we shall see 4 to 5 inches of snow for my FA…..Temps will begin to warm….We are watching another storm system for the beginning of next week…More on all this coming up…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Mostly to partly cloudy skies blanket the FA....Temps range from 10 to 18 degrees....Winds NE from clam to around 7 MPH....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY***

First off lets talk about the over hype snowstorm for Southern MN into WI…..Well like I said over hype here, is the real forecast for the MN and WI….Looking at all the computer models we do see NAM is still the main outlier….It has way to much precip across MN and WI….ECMWF/has had the best handle on this system while GFS/GEM/SREF have come into agreement …Though they weren’t a day ago like some would like you to think…..

Low pressure over Western TX Panhandle is forecasted to slowly work East/slightly Northeast into MO then it’s forecasted to move into Northeastern IL, then North up into the UP of MI…..Normally a storm track of such would bring the area heavy snow…..This is not the case….1. the storm is forecasted to weaken as is moves Northeast….2 the area is still under a dry flow from a high pressure over Hudson Bay….3 strong to severe thunderstorms along a cold front will be moving East which will help Cut off the moisture supply from the GOM…4 the system has slowed down which will give it time to weaken more before it hits MN/WI….With all that said yes we will still see some snow the heaviest will fall in NE/IA KS/MO…Also noted there should be ice in Southern MO depending on how fast the warm air moves into those areas….With the system weaken or fills in this will be a long lasting light snow event this is why I have snowfall amount as they are…(See map).Snow will becoming to an end Saturday morning across the FA….No cold air behind this system so temp should be either side of normal this weekend….

 

On to the next system on tap for Sunday night/Tuesday….

This system seems to behave like the one set to move through the area tomorrow….Low will be weaken as it pushes towards the area…Computer models are all over the place with timing and the track of the system….ECMWF seems to have the best handle on it while GFS is slowly coming to terms with ECMWF….This system could be more of a wintry mix down in Southern MN and WI while all snow in my FA….As of right now not to excited about this until models get into a better agreement on how things shall play out…..Kind of pointless and useless attm…..

Forecast dis. for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast concerns. 1 cold temps, 2 clipper system for Sunday through Tuesday, 3 cold temps again, 4 Possible major winter storm later in the upcoming work week.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

For today….Won’t see temps climb no higher than the middle teens in our Central and Northern areas, even in my Southern areas temps will be hard pressed to get to the upper teens…High pressure over head, however we will see off and on flurries and light snow as an inversion seems to have setup throughout the FA….So we shall see partly to mostly cloudy skies with flurries and pockets of light snow showers…..With the clouds in place don’t look for temps to warm all that great….

Tonight…..With partly to mostly cloudy skies temps will remain in check, still we shall drop below zero most areas….Right now thinking is temps will be a few degrees warmer than last night, however areas that do see longer clear skies could drop to near this morning lows….

Sunday through Tuesday…..We see a clipper type system dropping into Northern MN….This will trek Eastwards along the MN border…..This could bring my Northern/Central areas an inch of snow, best moisture will remain North of the FA with flurries possible in my Southern areas through Tuesday morning….

Tuesday night through Wednesday…… Arctic high pressure is forecasted to setup camp in the FA….This will once again allow for colder temps, lows well below zero with highs in the lower to middle teens….Lows on Tuesday night will highly depend on how fast the clouds move out….

Thursday through Friday night…….The possibilities of a major winter storm for this time frame….Still a lot of things that need to be worked out……This will also depend on how blocked up the weather pattern becomes…..

How far South the dry air up in Ontario gets dragged into the system….Models have been playing the flip flopping game on this system and also offering different solutions, though they do agree on forming a blocking period. Either way looks like we will see snow through all of the FA…We will have a better handle on this as we near closer to the middle of next week…..

Update

Have to update the snowfall forecast map..As low is tracking a little more South....Have also lowered snowfall amounts in Southern MN and WI...Also lowered snowfall amounts up North.....Increased snowfall amounts, we added  some 5 inch reports possible....See map below......Side note, some areas along Lake Superior may see some snowfall amount for 2 to 6 inches......Which we didn't mark.....

More snow on the way.

Forecast concerns will be the incoming clipper system for later today into Thursday morning…..Then blowing/drifting snow for tomorrow afternoon…..Then the cold temps forecasted throughout the weekend….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

Clouds have already took over much of the FA, still some clear to partly cloudy skies found to our North…Looking at the visible satellite those areas up North of us should fill in quickly this morning…..

We find a wide range in temps this morning, where there has been sun temps are close to 30….Superior is sitting at 29 right now, while here in Rice Lake we are at 25…..Want warmer temps head North…..With the cloud cover in place/forecasted to be in place today temps should be kept in check….May see another 2 to 3 degree rise before they steady out…..

Tonight the clipper will be passing over my Southern Counties this will set up and an area of snow for much of the area…..Main snow band should set up Northwestern MN down into Northwestern WI…This should give most of my forecast area at a running chance of seeing form 2 to 4 inches of snow…..1 to 3 in my far Southern parts of My Southern Counties….Meanwhile Southwestern WI and Southeastern MN will be lucky to see an inch of snow…I have those area highlighted for ½ to an inch of snow…..May have to drop those areas…..Will leave them for now……

Tomorrow the low will glide past the area….Snow should be ending in the morning hrs, however strong West/Northwest wind will get going….This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow throughout the day…We could see winds gust up to 25 to 28 MPH at times….Temps will be falling after the cold front passage….We still will see clouds with off and on flurries through Friday morning…Friday night skies should slowly clear off then temps will drop to around -5 to -2….If skies clear faster those temps may have to be lowered. Sunday we will see WAA kick in this will allow for temps to get back to normal again…Winter is far from being over folks….Don’t let others make you think it is….Winter is still very much alive and kicking it over the area…..

Here is our low pressure track forecast.

 

Here is our Snowfall forecast…

 

Long term forecast will be issued later this evening or tomorrow…..

Hint its going to get cold again…See map below…..

 

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Not to many weather problems on tap this week……Some more light snow for today and once again for Wednesday into Thursday….Then we get back into colder air, still not too bad for what it could….If you look at the climate data you will see it’s not uncommon to reach into the -20s…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At noon skies are cloudy throughout the area, temps middle to upper20s.Winds are gusting up to 26 MPH throughout the area.

 

***FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THIS WEEK 02/11 THROUGH 02/17***

SFC low pressure is centered over the Northeastern part of the UP of MI….Still some wrap around moisture flowing into the area, this should allow for some light snow off and on…Thinking is if the area sees an one inch we will be lucky…..Any light snow that falls today should end rather fast as the SFC low treks Northeast and looses it grip on the area…..Pressure gradients between the low and a high pressure system pushing towards the area will cause for a rather blustery day…Wind could gust up close to 30 MPH at times, this will lead to some mirror blowing and drifting snow, I would have be more concerned about it if the snow that fell yesterday and early this morning would have been more drier…..The strongest winds will occur over in Western/Southwestern, to Central MN….. Tonight through Tuesday we see a weak area of high pressure move into the area, this will allow for slowly clearing skies, once the skies clear the temps will drop like a rock with the fresh snow….May see temps falling to around 5 or so…..I would have went below zero, however the question is how fast will the clouds move out…..High pressure will insure us of a mostly sunny day tomorrow….That will be short- lived as an clipper storm system sets it eyes on the FA….We will see a return flow/WAA starting up late Tuesday night, this will increase the clouds…..Wednesday the clipper drops South into the area…This will bring another round of snow….Thinking the more snowfall amounts will be found over Northern MN, still with that said we still could sneak out and inch or two….We will have to watch this, as if it drops more South we could see 2 to 3 inches with some areas around the 4 inch mark……Said system moves out fast and colder air will be moving back into the FA on Thursday….Look for falling temps throughout the day Thursday…Cold air will remain in place through the upcoming weekend…..Lows should fall to around -5 with highs ranging from 10 to 15 above…..So all in all not to bad of a work week ahead…..

 

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION  02/18 THROUGH 02/27***

We see another clipper type low moving into the area later on Monday (18^th ) This will bring another shot of some light snow to the area from Monday night through Tuesday the 19^th ….Meanwhile a storm system could bring heavier snows to Southeastern WI on the 19^th….We dry out for the 21^st….. We find a storm system getting going over CO/KS area on Thursday the 21^st. GFS model keep this storm system way to the South. Seeing way to may spreads in the long range forecasting models to even get to excited about this, as it is so way out in there in time…..In fact with so much disagreement going on it is pointless to even keep going with this forecast discussion….So I won’t!!

Enjoy today and tomorrow, the foot is about to drop on us….This forecast package will talk mainly about the pending major winter storm to plow through the area this late weekend and into Monday……For those who follow me on Facebook know I have been already forecasting this storm…..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT***

The FA will be controlled by a 1028/1029 MB high pressure today through much of the day Saturday…..Meanwhile a major winter storm will be start to pound the Northeastern states……A 998 MB low pressure system off the Coast of NC is forecasted to move Along the Eastern Coast line…This will combined with the Alberta clipper that came through the area the other day…..This will be one of the biggest winter storms the that people have seen along the Eastern CONUS….You ask why am I talking about this, well this could have some impacts on our local weather...If that storm out East slows down at all, this will mean our late weekend system will slow down…..This could do two things for us….1. it could delay our system(highly unlikely) 2. It could give us more snow than what we are forecasting(which could happen)….

Onto the details of our Major winter storm….

One can easily see this monster forming over the central Rockies on the WV satellite imagery…..Now most models have been having a hard time with this system, GFS and NAM were way to far West and North with this system….This morning NAM is still too far West and North…..GFS has started to shift it’s thinking South somewhat yesterday…Even a little more in this morning’s update…..EC has had the same track since this storm system showed up on it…..So this forecast package will set around EC with a little blending of GFS/FLM/GEM….I have thrown out NAM all together, and for the most part GFS, though will use some of the members………1016 MB low pressure over Central CO is forecasted to move into Northern IA and deepen t0 992 MBS, and through Central WI then Moving into Northeastern WI than into the Northeastern part of the UP of MI…..Map below…

 

With the low forecasted to deepen rather fast this will allow for a windy system which will cause blowing and drifting snows…..Not only from the new snow that is forecasted, but the last few snow events have been a dry fluffy type of snow….So with all that combined look for near to whiteout conditions to form on Sunday….Now places such as Eau Claire may hardly see much in the way of wind, as the low passes nearly overhead…..This system will have a lot of moisture to work with along with lift….There should be enough instabilities to produce some thundersnow North of Eau Claire…..While a few thunderstorms are possible to the South of Eau Claire…Ok moving on, as many are asking, so how much snow will fall and where will it fall…..For this I use the map below…..As of right now kept the real heavy snow over in MN, but the snow in WI be heavy also……This map could change as we may need to shift the heavier snow Eastwards more than currently forecasted…..Main player here is where the deformation band decide to setup, along with any convection cells. Thermal profiles for the most part show enough cold air aloft to all snow….There may be some wintery mix at the start, but this shouldn’t be a problem as the column cools off fast…..This would be North of Chippewa falls…….Wintery mix is forecasted South of there down to Eau Claire, with mainly all rain South of there….As the system pulls of to the Northeast snow will mix in and change over to all snow, however by then the dynamics will have also moved out…So not excepting much snow South of Eau Claire…..Here is our snowfall forecast amounts…..Again we may need to push the heavier snow fall further East wards…….