Local forecast and Gustav forecast.

Again I used my area forecast discussion like I did yesterday morning....

Still warm to hot for the rest of the weekend....Winds will also be a factor through Monday night..Then our eyes turn to Tuesday for showers and thunderstorm,some which may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon into the evening..More on this later in this discussion.
Current Conditions.
Looking at the SFC OBS this early morning we find temps much warmer than yesterday morning...Temps through out the whole forecast areas are ranging from the lower to middle 60s...Some middle to upper 40s showing up right along the North shore of Superior,thanks to the wind coming off the lake...Dewpoints have been increasing all night long has of right now SFC OBS showing dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s,along the North shore of Superior we see dewpoints in the middle 40s.Skies are clear this morning and satellite confirms this.....
Today through Monday night...
Models are in good agreement for will use GFS for the finer details....Large area of high pressure to the East of us is forecasted to remain around 1019 to 1023 MBS as it slowly drifts East..Mean while a 999 MB low pressure over the Western Dakotas is forecasted to strengthen to around 994 MBS by Monday,as this happens pressure gradient between these two features will increase..This will to strong winds today through Monday...Gusts could be close to 35 to 40 MPH at times...Southerly winds will bring in warmer temps and higher dewpoints today and for Monday...
Upper 80s seems the best way to run...Though a few 90s not out of the question over parts of our MN FA....Fire danger for today do increase though SFC boundary dewpoints also increase RH remain around the 25 to 30 %...Something we will have to watch as the day goes on....Said low slowly starts to work it's way Northeast Monday and Monday night...This will drag a cold front so ever close to our Western MN FA...Could see some showers and thunderstorms as early as Monday night across our Western areas of MN,however I left them out of the forecast ATTM....
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
Low pressure weakens to around 1000 to 1004 MBS as it pushes into Canada...Low will drag a cold front into and through the area Tuesday into Tuesday evening...Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to form along and head of the cold front...Some of the numerical models hinting at a change of strong to severe thunderstorms along the frontal boundary....Not sure if I really buy into this this attm..Cap does look to be strong come Monday and Tuesday 700 MB temps ranging from 10c to 15 C This could be broke,however lapse rates and wind shear are meager attm...This would suggest to me the treat of strong to severe thunderstorms looked to very limited as right now...We will watch it as this could all change in heart beat..
Wednesday...
High pressure builds back into the area...This will allow temps to cool off..Back into the upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the work week....
Long range forecast...
This period will be the hardest to nail down...It will all depend on what happens with the left overs of Gustav....Models showing more of Easterly track of the moisture field flowing North wards...If this does pan out the heavy rains will remain across far Southern WI leaving us high and dry...Though a cold front/through will be working it's way into the area this could spark of some showers and thunderstorms....
Lets talk about hurricane Gustav...
Most of the models are now in agreement on where this monster is heading...Nam and GFNI seem to be the outliers.....Nam takes this Hurricane close to the shores of LA then has it making landfall over TX...GFS and long with the rest of the models seem to be right on track with Gustav making landfall over LA.....My thinking is...Landfall is going to be right around Houma to around the Avery Island....
What is interesting is this hurricane weaken lot as it passed over Cuba..However as it passes over the warmer waters of the Gulf loop current this should put back more punch into him...Also side note on some of the weather groups there was talk about the loop current..I guess this did surprise me a little, that more people are not aware of this....Anyhow as Gustav moves out of the loop current he will encounter cooler waters this should weaken him some...However still looks to be a major hurricane for LA as it makes landfall...

Gustav now cat 4 hurricane

Image from same source as from post below....

Gustav is now a cat 4 hurricane.Winds are now up to 145 MPH..Models are showing this could become a cat 5 before crossing Cuba...Once over Cuba this shall weaken some,however once back over the Southern GOM Gustav could once again become a hurricane 5...Models show this hurricane weaken as it move North/Northwest as it will push into cooler waters in the Northern part of the GOM.Models still showing landfall over South Central LA Monday night/Early Tuesday morning...Thinking attm is it could be cat 3 hurricane as it makes landfall over LA....We shall see soon enough.....

Weekend forecast

The above image is from... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

This is my AFD that I used on the private firm I forecast for....

The forecast for this long weekend can be summed up in just four words....Sunny,warm,dry,and windy.
Current Conditions.
Temps in MN are ranging from the lower to middle 40s for the most part..However a few stations reporting temps in the upper 30s at this hour....Also areas of fog are showing up in this morning SFC OBS.... In WI temps are in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Also fog being reported at some stations...Satellite is also confirming this...Satellite imagery is also showing some high clouds drifting in over parts of our MN FA....
Today through Monday.
Fog that is in some areas will burn off rather fast after sunrise...Except a few high clouds to drift into the Northern and central areas from time to time today...However with that said I did use sunny wording in the forecast as this high clouds will be thin....High pressure over MN will remain camped out over the area through Monday...The high starts to push into WI...This will give much the forecasted zones a return flow...However dewpoints will remain rather low for today and into the evening hours...Wind will start to increase over our Western areas of MN later today...Windy conditions will spread across much of the FA for Sunday and Monday...These windy conditions are in response to the high pressure moving of to the East and deepen low pressure in the Dakotas....GFS has the high pressure at 1024 MBS and the low pressure around the 997 MBS...The pressure gradient will become rather tight, winds could reach the 20 to 25 MPH on Sunday and Monday...With gusts from the 30 to 40 MPH in our wind prone areas of MN...There is some concern for fire weather as the boundary level is rather dry though an increase in dewpoints and RH is excepted come Sunday night and Monday...Something we will have to watch later in the weekend....
Tuesday through Wednesday...
997 MB low pressure over the Dakotas is forecasted to lift into Northern MN then into Canada.Another Low pressure is forecasted to form over the CO and move along a frontal boundary into Northeast MN.This secondary low pressure will drag a strong cold front into and through the area on Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning...Showers and thunderstorm will be possible for the FA...This could be our best shot at much needed rain through out the area.....Also some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe long and just ahead of the cold front...Still to early to forecast which areas may see strong/severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening....Temps through the weekend will warm from the lower 80s today into the middle to upper 80s through Monday..Some 90s could be realized across Western and Central parts of our MN FA..Could see a few unofficial reports of 90 in our WI areas also....
Thursday through Friday.
This part of the forecast will prove to be a hard one as things all hinder on what Gus. decides to do....Though it does appear temps will take a dive into the upper 60s and low to middle 70s during this time frame....Lets talk about Gus and Hanna for little....
First off let get right to Gustav...Has really got his act together over night looking at the satellite view We see an eye is trying to form...The pressure has dropped to around 965 MBs...What is interesting is when this hurricane moves into the Golf of Mexico he will be getting into waters that would suggest that further intensification would not be likely,also showing up on the models is wind shear combined these two a forecaster would have to think strengthen of this hurricane would not happen,however as we all know things can and do change...Also noteworthy is two of the models slow this cane down if this does happen this would allow for an upper level ridge to build over TX if this does indeed happen this would push the cane more to East....Well no matter what happens landfall is except to happen around the Louisiana...Still this hurricane will be a dangerous cane as if makes landfall people along the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on this system and listen for watches/warnings...One can also find more info on this hurricane and on TS Hanna..Just go to our tropical dept.
Lets talk about TS Hanna...GFS model is showing this storm to form into a hurricane around Sunday night into Monday morning's time frame....GFS has this hurricane weaken back to a TS.(.So will go with hurricane/TS for rest of this discussion)... as it moves toward FL however as it appears right now it will out over the water as it shirts the Eastern FL coast line....GFS takes this hurricane/TS up to along the GA coast line and has it making landfall around the SC coast line...GFS has the center of pressure down to around 993 MBS as it makes landfall...

Rainfall amount/Weekend forecast

Weather synopsis
First off the bat this early morning is..Rainfall amounts....Here in my rain gauge Yesterday morning I had .10 inches of rain...Over night We picked up another .044 inches of rain,that would bring the total up to .054 inches of much needed rain...Radar estimated totals shows this very well..First short wave moved through the area yesterday morning as forecasted..The line of showers and thunderstorms that were on the strong side in MN moved into Western/Northwestern WI as they did the storms did weaken some...Skies then became partly cloudy for the rest of day..The second shortwave moved through the area over night bringing more rainfall to the area,showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area much of the night..Nothing strong or severe just the garden type storms.....Though yesterday late afternoon and into the evening the treat of thunderstorms were over Southwestern into South Central MN...indeed there were warnings out for parts of those areas...
Forecast for today and the long weekend...
For today SFC boundary will keep pushing East/Northeast..This will take any showers and storms with it,as see on the radar this morning..With the front still being some what close to the area there will still be a chance at a few more showers and storms this morning...Showers and storms should end by afternoon...Computer models showing a high pressure building into the area later this afternoon and tonight...This ensure us of partly to mostly clear skies..This high will make camp over the area this long weekend....Some of the model guidance..Showing temps by Sunday and into Monday into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the area...Not sure if I buy into the upper 80s and lowers 90s...I can buy into the middle 80s without a problem...This weekend should be a dry one just like the last few...Temps will be warmer than last weekend so looks to be a great weekend for getting the docks and what nots out of the water..or just to be on or around the lakes.....Next chance of showers and thunderstorms come into play Monday night or Tuesday's time frame......More detailed forecast tomorrow morning..That is if I don't have to work overtime..
Side note for other rainfall amount from around the area see Derek's blog...As I will not be posting other amounts,due to the following reasons...1 I really don't have time to dig for all the info..2...I Specialize in forecasting not short term stuff..Unless I'm at home and severe weather is around...though 9 chances out of 10 I will be out chasing...

Severe weather chances for today are very low....Short wave now pushing through Central MN is kicking off a line of showers and thunderstorms..Some of these storms have been on the strong side...With some hail reports and some gusty winds...This activity should weaken some by time it reaches Western and Northwestern WI....Still some of the stronger thunderstorms may produce some hail and gusty winds this morning,along with areas picking up from 1/4 to around 3/4 inches of rain...Bad news is with rain falling that hard most of it will run off and won't do us to much good..Everyone won't see that kind of rainfall though....This morning's trough kicks out of the area...Another one right on it's heels for later today into tonight...Severe weather threat looks to remain well to the Southwest of the area into Southwestern MN..In Southwest MN good dynamics are in place for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening....Across Western WI and Northwestern WI...Dynamics won't be as strong...However might still see a strong storm or two rumble through the area...Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds,along with areas of brief heavy rain,again not all areas will be lucky enough to see the heavy rain...What we need is an all day and all night slow soaker...
Side note which I should have said earlier...The storms in MN as they push towards Western/Northwestern WI have been on the weaken trend over the last hour or so as they move into drier air..Thinking is this will be the trend through out the morning hours.

Coldest air thus far

At 4:33 AM this morning looking at the SFC OBS for Northern MN and Northern WI...I see temps in the middle 30s to lower 40s...I'm sure they will drop a few more degrees before sunrise...Here on my weather station I have a temp of 39.9 °..Thus making this the coldest air so far this later summer really early fall.....Looks like temps will rebound nice today right into the middle to upper 70s.....

No severe weather friday night

Ok many have asked me why severe thunderstorms didn't form on Friday late afternoon..Some say my forecast was a bust,However this is not true...We did get a line of showers and thunderstorms to form across the area, storms were to the North and South but still where in the forecasted area pf Western and Northwestern WI..So that part did work out,,However the severe thunderstorm part did bust for the most part....So why did it bust for the most part...There a few reasons to this....Here they are...The cap weaken to slow and way out ahead of the cold front.The cap didn't break like I thought it was going..This allowed for more low level clouds to form and allowed a very small line of showers and storms to form just ahead of cold front,plus the updrafts where not strong enough to punch through fast enough as the cap slowly started to weaken.Also the dynamics set up in Northern areas of MN and WI..The SPC did issue a severe thunderstorm watch for them areas.Now up north over Lake Superior there where severe thunderstorms..Not really 100% why that happen over the lake so I won't comment on that..Just one of those things that happened....This is what I saw as I sat here waiting for storms to fire up....Nevertheless the forecast was not a total bust...However does show everyone forecasting is not easy, as to many things can and do go wrong...If I was to repeat Friday would I have changed my forecast?...No I would have did it the same way as models did show a chance of severe thunderstorms..

First Frost is possible

First frost of the season is possible for tonight!
Current Conditions.
Most stations reporting temps in the lower to middle 40s .The cold spot this morning is up in International Falls with a temps of 37° Areas of fog also being reported this is also is being confirmed by the fog satellite imagery,other that clear skies are the rule....
Today..
1025 MB high pressure is forecasted to drift out of ND into Northwestern MN and into North central MN today..Winds will be lighter than yesterday...Temps will still remain rather cool for August's terms...We shouldn't be dealing with the CU today like we had yesterday so the sunshine will make it feel warmer than yesterday..Lower 70s seems to be the way to go for today...
Tonight.
High pressure strengthens to around 1020 MB tonight...The cold dome of high pressure will move right over the area ..With light to clam winds and clear skies this will allow radiation cooling to reach it's peak...All of this combined will allow for a chilly night....Temps should drop into the middle 30s across much of the area..Warmer near Lake Superior...Some of our cold spots could drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Monday Morning...This will allow for the possibility for areas of patchy frost tonight....I'm still on the edge of my seat on if this will be a widespread event...Could very well be...Then again may not be...More info on this later in the day after I see a few more computer runs and computer guidance..So far I'm liking the MAV over the other ones...So that is what I based my temps on

Severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon across the area...Most if not all dynamics are in place for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail along with damaging winds...Large area of low level clouds are hanging tough this early morning...Clouds are forecasted to break up later this morning..If they do this will allow the atmosphere to become unstable later today...Warm air also at the 700 MB level will keep the cap rather strong through the 3 PM hour...Models suggest this will weaken/break around that time frame as a strong cold front/shortwave works into the area..Thunderstorms are forecasted to form and move into the area after 3 or 4 PM this afternoon...Some of these thunderstorms are forecasted to become severe,again large hail and damaging winds the main threat..What is interesting Models have PWS values around the 1.5 this would also lead to heave rainfall,however this system is booking at a rather fast speed so thinking right now is heavy rainfall won't be the main problem..Though some areas could pick up close to an inch of rain with the strongest thunderstorms....
For all you severe thunderstorm lovers...The limiting factor to severe storms would be as follows....Main one is if we can burn off these low level clouds that are currently over the area which I already see happening over Southwest MN this clearing line is moving Northeast as I type this...Number two is if the cap does indeed break.....I do believe this will happen.....Main time frame to see thunderstorms non severe and severe would be from the hours of 5 PM to 11 PM.....
I know I was only going to use this blog for forecasting severe weather events,however I will do this weekend also...
Saturday and Sunday looks to be sunny with strong high pressure decides to camp out over the area.. Temps should be in the middle to upper 70s for highs,with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

Low chance at severe thunderstorms Friday Afternoon/Friday night..

Warm temps to end the long work week along with increasing chances at showers and thunderstorms...
Windy conditions will engulf much of the area later Thursday afternoon and evening..High pressure off to the East of the area along with a forming low pressure out over the MT area will ensure the area with strong winds.Tomorrow winds should still not be bad...Thinking is Friday will be the day for stronger winds....Winds could gust up to around 28 maybe 30 MPH by Friday afternoon...The windy conditions will allow temps to zoom into the middle 80s..Would not be shocked to see a few 90° readings...Going back to Thursday for a bit...
Upper level low over Northeast TX is forecasted to push North Northeast tonight and into tomorrow..This might bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon.With clouds around like today temps should remain close to 80...79 to 83 seems to be the way to run....Now on to Friday..Beside the winds,and warmer temps there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms a few may become strong to severe....Strong cold front is forecasted to push into WI Friday afternoon and move through the area Friday night....Dewpoints on some of the models showing middle to upper 60s possible...Cape values are forecasted to range from 1500 to 2500 J/KG...Lifted Indexes reach from -2 to -4...This does set the stage for thunderstorms some may become strong to severe later in the afternoon on Friday into Friday night...Right now I'm calling for a low chance at severe thunderstorms...Will have an update tomorrow around 6 pm or so..That is if an updated is needed...

Low risk for strong/severe thunderstorms

My map is down ATTM so no map will be posted.....There is a low risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today...See below...
Today shall be a warm and humid day across the area.Though dewpoints should drop a little in the afternoon,as we get some mixing down from the upper levels,it will still feel rather muggy outside..Temps should have no problem getting into the middle 80s some upper 80s to near 90 not out of the question over the area....Looking at the WV satellite we see a few interesting things...First on is a shortwave over Canada this is moving South/Southeast also a cold front pushing South...These two features will aid in the formation of isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon...This is interesting..Models showing some spots of better instability later today...Also do see some vertical shear along with some low level steep lapse rates...This would warrant a chance at some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe,however does not look like a widespread event ATTM....Though the main threat from any storms that can become severe would be some hail giving the cooler temps aloft and some gusty winds...The area that would have the best chance at seeing strong to severe storms would be over NE to Eastern Central parts of MN and much of our Western/Northern WI.

Cold morning

What the heck happen to summer? Wow temps this morning are in the lower to middle 40s with some upper 30s across Northern MN and Northern WI....My low here at my place was a cold 42.9 ° I see that KRPD also showed a low of 42....Looks like these below temps are forecasted by the long range models right through Aug 20th...Sure they may be a few warm days here and there but over all the temps will avg below norms.....

Website updated

Today I have updated my website..Added info to correct thunderstorm days in June,added July pictures,and added August 3 rd pictures...That's all for now.
Dirk Miller

Pictures and info

The pictures from last weekend's severe thunderstorm will be on my website this weekend...I might get them on Friday night..If not they will be up by Sunday afternoon...I will have all of July chase pictures added also...I will also have to update June's thunderstorm days as we did get some more after I wrote up that post on my site..So yes lots of work to do to on my site....

Storm damage

Pictures of the damage that this grumpy storm caused....Yes I got rocked hard when the gust front caught me....

Severe thunderstorm rocked parts of Barron County

A Severe thunderstorm Rocked Mainly Central and Northern Barron County yesterday afternoon..From around 3:15 PM to about 3:45 PM or so...Many tress and power poles and lines were downed as this storm moved through...Also a report of a roof being tore off a house....Here are a few pictures of the storm and storm damage..The rest will be up on my website this coming weekend....Also a side note my weather station rercorded winds up to 59.9 MPH...I'm sure that was much higher giving the damage around the area,plus my wind gauge is not in the best spot for winds out of the west/northwest...Also picked up 3/4 inch of rain,again this total is much higher as the my rain guage got blown over...Some larger branches did come down in my yard...I lost power and was not until aroun 3 AM maybe a little before that...Nevertheless it was a grumpy storm to work with,but yet it was a fun little chase...Yes I know I had rain drops on my lens no matter how fast I wiped them off they kept coming back...

Severe thunderstorms possible

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE***

This is a tricky forecast....Will all depend on how fast this morning's convection mess moves through...Heck it's not evan here yet...So a lot could go wrong....But if computer models are right then severe thunderstorms will be possible.....
Today and tonight...
Warm and humid air flowing into the area along with a SFC warm front well to our South along with a low pressure in SD/NE area is forecasted to slowly move East through the day and tonight....This morning we find an area of convection in ND and parts of SD...This area is showing some weaken over the hour or so,However this should move into Western MN this morning and through Central and Northern part of MN into WI during the afternoon....Severe threat from this activity would be gusty winds and some hail....Later today more thunderstorms are forecasted to form along the boundaries left over from this morning's activity...If we can get a few good hours of SFC in the afternoon we good be dealing with severe thunderstorms....Main area would be found points South of a line from Bayfield down toward Park Falls...
Main threat from severe thunderstorms in these areas would be damaging winds and large hail...Thinking is a few tornadoes could be possible in far Southern areas of MN and WI Nevertheless we still could see a few tornadoes....
Stay tuned to your local news media and your weather radio or internet sources for the latest on this severe weather threat......
Also tonight another round of thunderstorms are forecasted to form along a strong LLJ poking into the area...This area of convection is forecasted to fire up out in Eastern areas of ND/SD/Western MN this area is forecasted to push East/Southeast...Giving the amount of moisture and strong upper level jet more severe thunderstorms will be possible over night.....
Main threat tonight would be large hail along with areas of damaging winds.