Local forecast and Gustav forecast.

Again I used my area forecast discussion like I did yesterday morning....

Still warm to hot for the rest of the weekend....Winds will also be a factor through Monday night..Then our eyes turn to Tuesday for showers and thunderstorm,some which may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon into the evening..More on this later in this discussion.
Current Conditions.
Looking at the SFC OBS this early morning we find temps much warmer than yesterday morning...Temps through out the whole forecast areas are ranging from the lower to middle 60s...Some middle to upper 40s showing up right along the North shore of Superior,thanks to the wind coming off the lake...Dewpoints have been increasing all night long has of right now SFC OBS showing dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s,along the North shore of Superior we see dewpoints in the middle 40s.Skies are clear this morning and satellite confirms this.....
Today through Monday night...
Models are in good agreement for will use GFS for the finer details....Large area of high pressure to the East of us is forecasted to remain around 1019 to 1023 MBS as it slowly drifts East..Mean while a 999 MB low pressure over the Western Dakotas is forecasted to strengthen to around 994 MBS by Monday,as this happens pressure gradient between these two features will increase..This will to strong winds today through Monday...Gusts could be close to 35 to 40 MPH at times...Southerly winds will bring in warmer temps and higher dewpoints today and for Monday...
Upper 80s seems the best way to run...Though a few 90s not out of the question over parts of our MN FA....Fire danger for today do increase though SFC boundary dewpoints also increase RH remain around the 25 to 30 %...Something we will have to watch as the day goes on....Said low slowly starts to work it's way Northeast Monday and Monday night...This will drag a cold front so ever close to our Western MN FA...Could see some showers and thunderstorms as early as Monday night across our Western areas of MN,however I left them out of the forecast ATTM....
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
Low pressure weakens to around 1000 to 1004 MBS as it pushes into Canada...Low will drag a cold front into and through the area Tuesday into Tuesday evening...Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to form along and head of the cold front...Some of the numerical models hinting at a change of strong to severe thunderstorms along the frontal boundary....Not sure if I really buy into this this attm..Cap does look to be strong come Monday and Tuesday 700 MB temps ranging from 10c to 15 C This could be broke,however lapse rates and wind shear are meager attm...This would suggest to me the treat of strong to severe thunderstorms looked to very limited as right now...We will watch it as this could all change in heart beat..
Wednesday...
High pressure builds back into the area...This will allow temps to cool off..Back into the upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the work week....
Long range forecast...
This period will be the hardest to nail down...It will all depend on what happens with the left overs of Gustav....Models showing more of Easterly track of the moisture field flowing North wards...If this does pan out the heavy rains will remain across far Southern WI leaving us high and dry...Though a cold front/through will be working it's way into the area this could spark of some showers and thunderstorms....
Lets talk about hurricane Gustav...
Most of the models are now in agreement on where this monster is heading...Nam and GFNI seem to be the outliers.....Nam takes this Hurricane close to the shores of LA then has it making landfall over TX...GFS and long with the rest of the models seem to be right on track with Gustav making landfall over LA.....My thinking is...Landfall is going to be right around Houma to around the Avery Island....
What is interesting is this hurricane weaken lot as it passed over Cuba..However as it passes over the warmer waters of the Gulf loop current this should put back more punch into him...Also side note on some of the weather groups there was talk about the loop current..I guess this did surprise me a little, that more people are not aware of this....Anyhow as Gustav moves out of the loop current he will encounter cooler waters this should weaken him some...However still looks to be a major hurricane for LA as it makes landfall...