The above image is from... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
This is my AFD that I used on the private firm I forecast for....
The forecast for this long weekend can be summed up in just four words....Sunny,warm,dry,and windy.
Current Conditions.
Temps in MN are ranging from the lower to middle 40s for the most part..However a few stations reporting temps in the upper 30s at this hour....Also areas of fog are showing up in this morning SFC OBS.... In WI temps are in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Also fog being reported at some stations...Satellite is also confirming this...Satellite imagery is also showing some high clouds drifting in over parts of our MN FA....
Today through Monday.
Fog that is in some areas will burn off rather fast after sunrise...Except a few high clouds to drift into the Northern and central areas from time to time today...However with that said I did use sunny wording in the forecast as this high clouds will be thin....High pressure over MN will remain camped out over the area through Monday...The high starts to push into WI...This will give much the forecasted zones a return flow...However dewpoints will remain rather low for today and into the evening hours...Wind will start to increase over our Western areas of MN later today...Windy conditions will spread across much of the FA for Sunday and Monday...These windy conditions are in response to the high pressure moving of to the East and deepen low pressure in the Dakotas....GFS has the high pressure at 1024 MBS and the low pressure around the 997 MBS...The pressure gradient will become rather tight, winds could reach the 20 to 25 MPH on Sunday and Monday...With gusts from the 30 to 40 MPH in our wind prone areas of MN...There is some concern for fire weather as the boundary level is rather dry though an increase in dewpoints and RH is excepted come Sunday night and Monday...Something we will have to watch later in the weekend....
Tuesday through Wednesday...
997 MB low pressure over the Dakotas is forecasted to lift into Northern MN then into Canada.Another Low pressure is forecasted to form over the CO and move along a frontal boundary into Northeast MN.This secondary low pressure will drag a strong cold front into and through the area on Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning...Showers and thunderstorm will be possible for the FA...This could be our best shot at much needed rain through out the area.....Also some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe long and just ahead of the cold front...Still to early to forecast which areas may see strong/severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening....Temps through the weekend will warm from the lower 80s today into the middle to upper 80s through Monday..Some 90s could be realized across Western and Central parts of our MN FA..Could see a few unofficial reports of 90 in our WI areas also....
Thursday through Friday.
This part of the forecast will prove to be a hard one as things all hinder on what Gus. decides to do....Though it does appear temps will take a dive into the upper 60s and low to middle 70s during this time frame....Lets talk about Gus and Hanna for little....
First off let get right to Gustav...Has really got his act together over night looking at the satellite view We see an eye is trying to form...The pressure has dropped to around 965 MBs...What is interesting is when this hurricane moves into the Golf of Mexico he will be getting into waters that would suggest that further intensification would not be likely,also showing up on the models is wind shear combined these two a forecaster would have to think strengthen of this hurricane would not happen,however as we all know things can and do change...Also noteworthy is two of the models slow this cane down if this does happen this would allow for an upper level ridge to build over TX if this does indeed happen this would push the cane more to East....Well no matter what happens landfall is except to happen around the Louisiana...Still this hurricane will be a dangerous cane as if makes landfall people along the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on this system and listen for watches/warnings...One can also find more info on this hurricane and on TS Hanna..Just go to our tropical dept.
Lets talk about TS Hanna...GFS model is showing this storm to form into a hurricane around Sunday night into Monday morning's time frame....GFS has this hurricane weaken back to a TS.(.So will go with hurricane/TS for rest of this discussion)... as it moves toward FL however as it appears right now it will out over the water as it shirts the Eastern FL coast line....GFS takes this hurricane/TS up to along the GA coast line and has it making landfall around the SC coast line...GFS has the center of pressure down to around 993 MBS as it makes landfall...
Current Conditions.
Temps in MN are ranging from the lower to middle 40s for the most part..However a few stations reporting temps in the upper 30s at this hour....Also areas of fog are showing up in this morning SFC OBS.... In WI temps are in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Also fog being reported at some stations...Satellite is also confirming this...Satellite imagery is also showing some high clouds drifting in over parts of our MN FA....
Today through Monday.
Fog that is in some areas will burn off rather fast after sunrise...Except a few high clouds to drift into the Northern and central areas from time to time today...However with that said I did use sunny wording in the forecast as this high clouds will be thin....High pressure over MN will remain camped out over the area through Monday...The high starts to push into WI...This will give much the forecasted zones a return flow...However dewpoints will remain rather low for today and into the evening hours...Wind will start to increase over our Western areas of MN later today...Windy conditions will spread across much of the FA for Sunday and Monday...These windy conditions are in response to the high pressure moving of to the East and deepen low pressure in the Dakotas....GFS has the high pressure at 1024 MBS and the low pressure around the 997 MBS...The pressure gradient will become rather tight, winds could reach the 20 to 25 MPH on Sunday and Monday...With gusts from the 30 to 40 MPH in our wind prone areas of MN...There is some concern for fire weather as the boundary level is rather dry though an increase in dewpoints and RH is excepted come Sunday night and Monday...Something we will have to watch later in the weekend....
Tuesday through Wednesday...
997 MB low pressure over the Dakotas is forecasted to lift into Northern MN then into Canada.Another Low pressure is forecasted to form over the CO and move along a frontal boundary into Northeast MN.This secondary low pressure will drag a strong cold front into and through the area on Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning...Showers and thunderstorm will be possible for the FA...This could be our best shot at much needed rain through out the area.....Also some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe long and just ahead of the cold front...Still to early to forecast which areas may see strong/severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening....Temps through the weekend will warm from the lower 80s today into the middle to upper 80s through Monday..Some 90s could be realized across Western and Central parts of our MN FA..Could see a few unofficial reports of 90 in our WI areas also....
Thursday through Friday.
This part of the forecast will prove to be a hard one as things all hinder on what Gus. decides to do....Though it does appear temps will take a dive into the upper 60s and low to middle 70s during this time frame....Lets talk about Gus and Hanna for little....
First off let get right to Gustav...Has really got his act together over night looking at the satellite view We see an eye is trying to form...The pressure has dropped to around 965 MBs...What is interesting is when this hurricane moves into the Golf of Mexico he will be getting into waters that would suggest that further intensification would not be likely,also showing up on the models is wind shear combined these two a forecaster would have to think strengthen of this hurricane would not happen,however as we all know things can and do change...Also noteworthy is two of the models slow this cane down if this does happen this would allow for an upper level ridge to build over TX if this does indeed happen this would push the cane more to East....Well no matter what happens landfall is except to happen around the Louisiana...Still this hurricane will be a dangerous cane as if makes landfall people along the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on this system and listen for watches/warnings...One can also find more info on this hurricane and on TS Hanna..Just go to our tropical dept.
Lets talk about TS Hanna...GFS model is showing this storm to form into a hurricane around Sunday night into Monday morning's time frame....GFS has this hurricane weaken back to a TS.(.So will go with hurricane/TS for rest of this discussion)... as it moves toward FL however as it appears right now it will out over the water as it shirts the Eastern FL coast line....GFS takes this hurricane/TS up to along the GA coast line and has it making landfall around the SC coast line...GFS has the center of pressure down to around 993 MBS as it makes landfall...
