Friday, August 22, 2008

Severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon across the area...Most if not all dynamics are in place for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail along with damaging winds...Large area of low level clouds are hanging tough this early morning...Clouds are forecasted to break up later this morning..If they do this will allow the atmosphere to become unstable later today...Warm air also at the 700 MB level will keep the cap rather strong through the 3 PM hour...Models suggest this will weaken/break around that time frame as a strong cold front/shortwave works into the area..Thunderstorms are forecasted to form and move into the area after 3 or 4 PM this afternoon...Some of these thunderstorms are forecasted to become severe,again large hail and damaging winds the main threat..What is interesting Models have PWS values around the 1.5 this would also lead to heave rainfall,however this system is booking at a rather fast speed so thinking right now is heavy rainfall won't be the main problem..Though some areas could pick up close to an inch of rain with the strongest thunderstorms....
For all you severe thunderstorm lovers...The limiting factor to severe storms would be as follows....Main one is if we can burn off these low level clouds that are currently over the area which I already see happening over Southwest MN this clearing line is moving Northeast as I type this...Number two is if the cap does indeed break.....I do believe this will happen.....Main time frame to see thunderstorms non severe and severe would be from the hours of 5 PM to 11 PM.....
I know I was only going to use this blog for forecasting severe weather events,however I will do this weekend also...
Saturday and Sunday looks to be sunny with strong high pressure decides to camp out over the area.. Temps should be in the middle to upper 70s for highs,with lows in the middle to upper 40s.