Sunday, August 3, 2008

Severe thunderstorms possible



***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE***

This is a tricky forecast....Will all depend on how fast this morning's convection mess moves through...Heck it's not evan here yet...So a lot could go wrong....But if computer models are right then severe thunderstorms will be possible.....
Today and tonight...
Warm and humid air flowing into the area along with a SFC warm front well to our South along with a low pressure in SD/NE area is forecasted to slowly move East through the day and tonight....This morning we find an area of convection in ND and parts of SD...This area is showing some weaken over the hour or so,However this should move into Western MN this morning and through Central and Northern part of MN into WI during the afternoon....Severe threat from this activity would be gusty winds and some hail....Later today more thunderstorms are forecasted to form along the boundaries left over from this morning's activity...If we can get a few good hours of SFC in the afternoon we good be dealing with severe thunderstorms....Main area would be found points South of a line from Bayfield down toward Park Falls...
Main threat from severe thunderstorms in these areas would be damaging winds and large hail...Thinking is a few tornadoes could be possible in far Southern areas of MN and WI Nevertheless we still could see a few tornadoes....
Stay tuned to your local news media and your weather radio or internet sources for the latest on this severe weather threat......
Also tonight another round of thunderstorms are forecasted to form along a strong LLJ poking into the area...This area of convection is forecasted to fire up out in Eastern areas of ND/SD/Western MN this area is forecasted to push East/Southeast...Giving the amount of moisture and strong upper level jet more severe thunderstorms will be possible over night.....
Main threat tonight would be large hail along with areas of damaging winds.