Sunday, August 24, 2008

No severe weather friday night

Ok many have asked me why severe thunderstorms didn't form on Friday late afternoon..Some say my forecast was a bust,However this is not true...We did get a line of showers and thunderstorms to form across the area, storms were to the North and South but still where in the forecasted area pf Western and Northwestern WI..So that part did work out,,However the severe thunderstorm part did bust for the most part....So why did it bust for the most part...There a few reasons to this....Here they are...The cap weaken to slow and way out ahead of the cold front.The cap didn't break like I thought it was going..This allowed for more low level clouds to form and allowed a very small line of showers and storms to form just ahead of cold front,plus the updrafts where not strong enough to punch through fast enough as the cap slowly started to weaken.Also the dynamics set up in Northern areas of MN and WI..The SPC did issue a severe thunderstorm watch for them areas.Now up north over Lake Superior there where severe thunderstorms..Not really 100% why that happen over the lake so I won't comment on that..Just one of those things that happened....This is what I saw as I sat here waiting for storms to fire up....Nevertheless the forecast was not a total bust...However does show everyone forecasting is not easy, as to many things can and do go wrong...If I was to repeat Friday would I have changed my forecast?...No I would have did it the same way as models did show a chance of severe thunderstorms..