The 1991 Holloween blizzard

Wow this was one mean storm that hit the area..Poor kids that did get out to trick and treat had to have winter coats and boots on...I had like 25 kids stop at the house that night..So the heavy snow really didn't keep them in.....Ok let me talk about this blizzard....Oct 32 through Nov 3 brought a period of heavy snow to the following areas.Central and Northern IA ,Southern,Central,Eastern,Northeastern MN,and parts of Western WI,along with all of Northwestern WI.The lowest pressure reading from this blizzard was 984 MBS.
First of around the 27 through the 29 we had a very strong cold front push through Northwest WI...This is one part to set the area up with record snowfall amount from Oct 31 through Nov 3...Some other players are the large ridge of high pressure that extended from Greenland down into the Southeastern States...We also had a large storm system over the Atlantic Ocean AKA the perfect storm...Thanks to this storm it put a blocking pattern on the weather systems from moving from West to East...We also had a low pressure that was centered over NE this low was trying to push East Northeast..Meanwhile a strong low pressure was forming over TX this system was pulled darn near North,do to the perfect storm and the ridge of high pressure to out East...The combination of said high and the perfect storm lead to copious amounts of moisture to ride North with the TX low pressure...With cold air already in place this was becoming a set up for a blizzard for the area...Snowfall amounts ranged from a mere 4 inches to as much as 37 inches..The higher amounts where found along the Western parts of the South shore of Lake Superior and the far Southern parts of the North shore of Lake Superior,as moisture of the lake also worked it's way into the storm system.Here at my house close to Rice Lake I recorded 24 inches of snow......As far as a weather forecaster's stand point this time frame had to be one of the best times to watch with so much going on..I will never forget it!.Though this blizzard was fun to watch grow and be part of,this blizzard also has a down side to it....The Halloween blizzard caused 100 millions dollars worth of damage,sadly this blizzard also claimed 22 people's life's..More than 100 people were injured through the time frame of Oct 31 through Nov 3

WI winter weather awareness week Nov 10-14 0f 08

Governor Jim Doyle has declared November 10-14, 2008 as Wisconsin’s Winter Awareness Week. The annual campaign is sponsored by Wisconsin Emergency Management and the National Weather Service to remind people to be prepared for winter conditions that can threaten their safety.What does this mean for you. Later this weekend I will be talking about watches and warnings along with advisories.

My winter forecast

Here is my winter outlook....First out of the gates,lets talk about the temps....I figured the temps for the whole winter...As you can see I'm forecasting colder than normal for a good part of the Country with cooler than normal temps just outside the colder than norm temp....The Western and far Southern areas,I'm forecasting near normal temps...Only places I see above temps would be in the Southwestern areas and Extreme Southern areas with just about all of FL....Let break this down to my forecast area...The winter will start out on the warm side,Nov through Dec,however temps will fall off rather fast by Jan..Temps should remain cold through much of Feb into Mar.... Sure than may be some warm times through this period...But the average temps should be below average....
Second thing on the docket is the precip forecast.
You can see I'm forecasting a great deal of the Country to be above normal.....The only areas I see below normal precip is going to be out in the far Western parts,along with a small area of the Eastern sea Coast..Elsewhere's near normal precip is forecasted...Time to talk about my forecast area....
Thinking is we will start out snowy,Middle to late Nov through the end of Dec...Then we will get a rest in Jan into Feb...Than turn snowy through Feb through Mar...Not saying we won't have dry time in Nov and Dec along with Feb and Mar...Just like I'm not saying we won't have any snowstorms in Jan and into the first part of Feb....Again both temp and precip forecasts are based on an average winter..Winter running from Nov through Mar..(This is the time frame I'm using)

Forecast was right on target.

Was going to write this up last night,however no time to,has I was working on the winter forecast...That should be out tonight when I get home from work...Anyway the forecast for Sunday panned out just right...We had off and on snow showers all day...Though the change over to snow didn't happen till around 7 AM or shortly after...We did have a dusting of snow Sunday night,My truck was white Monday morning at 4:30 AM..Also some of the secondary roads were a little slippery...
Here are some of the snowfall reports from the NWS for my whole forecast area(this is my forecast area for the private firm I forecast for....LES was not that heavy like we thought it was going to be...Should have had a more Northerly winds,however giving the models output that is what we had forecasted....
0600 AM SNOW EMBARRASS 10/27/2008 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER0700 AM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS
10/27/2008 M0.3 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS0700 AM SNOW SILVER BAY 10/27/2008 M1.5 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER0700 AM SNOW TOWER
10/27/2008 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER0700 AM SNOW UPSON 10/27/2008 M2.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER0700 AM SNOW DULUTH
10/27/2008 M0.2 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS0800 AM SNOW WASHBURN
10/27/2008 M0.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER0800 AM SNOW GURNEY
10/27/2008 M1.5 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER0830 AM SNOW 20 NE PARK FALLS
10/27/2008 E1.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER.
Winds for the most part were right on target...We had gusts up to 40 MPH here at the office,with winds from 20 to 30 MPH on the average..Winds did slack up off and on through the day,however did increase once again Sunday night...So unlike what I have heard and read from others...The forecasts that were issued not only by my office but also the NWS were on the mark! Except the LES that we had forecasted,but that was talked about above!

HWD I issued early this morning.

This part of the HWD is for Northern WI....
Lake effect snow advisory has been issued by the NWS for the following Northern parts of these Counties.....Ashland,Bay field,and Iron....
Strong cold winds blowing over the warm water of Lake Superior will be the focal point of LES today through Monday...Heavy snow is forecasted for said areas...3 to as much as 7 inches of snow is possible by time the LES machine shuts down....Winds will also cause blowing and drifting of the snow,making travel difficult.....
Rest of our WI Zones....
Wind advisory has been issued by the NWS...Strong winds from 20 to 30 MPH are on tap for today through Monday Morning....Winds could gusts up to 40 to 45 MPH at times...Along with the strong winds light snow is a good bet...Little or no snow accumulations are excepted,however the ground could whiten up from time to time with the heavier snow showers,or down stream from bigger lakes...
Now on to our MN Zones....
The NWS has issued a Winter weather advisory for the Northern Counties of MN...Here 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible...With strong winds blowing and drifting of the snow is also possible....Elsewhere's little or no snow accumulations are expected,however just like in WI we could see some LES snows off the bigger lakes...So people down stream from these lakes could see some snow accumulations....
Still would not be shocked to see the ground get white from time to time with the heavier snow showers.....Wind advisory is also posted for all of my MN zones...strong winds from 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40 to 45 MPH..Through tonight before the winds die down some over night.....

Forecast,Winds,and light snow

Note...Did see the first snowflakes of the seasion...Had a little snow shower move through the area about 15 mins ago.....


Forecast right on track,no big changes needed...Will make this forecast discussion easy on myself today.
Current Conditions...
SFC OBS and radar showing areas of light snow through out the FA..Temps have been falling through out the early morning hours..Still in the 40s so there still is some light rain reported....Winds still not to bad attm but in our Western FA of MN they are starting to pick up where gust have been reported up to 36 MPH..Over in our WI Zones winds have been gusting up to from 23 to 28 MPH...
Analysis...
Strong cold front has pushed through the area...Wind have been picking up this morning....Strong 983 MB low pressure is centered over the Southwestern part of Hudson Bay Canada..We also find a few shortwaves pin wheeling around the low pressure.These shortwaves will move into and through the area through Monday..This will cause light snows for all of the FA,for the most part little or no snow accumulations are excepted.....Though we could see 1 to 2 inches in our far Northern Counties of MN..Elsewhere's I would not be shocked to see the ground turn white at times...Now lets talk about the LES....Far Northern Ashland,Bay Field,and Iron Counties could pick up 3 to 7 inches of snow by Monday evening...The winter storm watch that was in effect has been drop,however the NWS has a issued a Lake effect snow advisory for the said Counties above.....What is interesting,though we see it every year...The bigger lakes in MN and WI...could also produce some LES,though lighter but still anyone down winds from these lakes could see a tap bit more snowfall....One of the lakes in Barron County I know rather well can produce LES, if the wind sets up just right, is Beaver Dam so we will watch this also,for LES around the bigger lakes through out our FA...Winds will become strong...Still Could see winds gusts up to 40 to MPH through tonight...Winds do slack off some over in our Northern areas of MN,while remaining rather strong over our Southern areas and all of our WI zones...
The next few day will remain rather cold..However a big warm up in the forecast by middle to weeks end...Temps back into the lower to middle 50s...Would not be shocked to see a few 60s reported....

The HWD I issued

This hazardous weather discussion is mainly for Northern WI....
****WINTER STORM****
The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for the following Counties in WI...Ashland,Bay Field,and Iron....
Strong cold front is forecasted to plow into the area tonight.This will bring strong Northwest winds to the area...Cold air flowing over the warm waters Lake Superior will cause LES..People in the snow belts of these Counties should get ready for difficult travel Sunday through Monday...Looks like 4 to 8 inches of snow will be possible by time all is said and done....With the heavy LES winds will be another problem..20 to 30 MPH with gust reaching the 40 to 45 MPH..This will cause blowing and drifting snow...This could lead to whiteout conditions...If you must travel give your self plenty of time,or leave early,or postpone your travel plans until conditions improve.....
Rest of my WI FA....
Snowfall amount will very...Any where from a dusting South to as much as 1 most other areas....2 to 4 inches possible through out the rest of said Counties above...Blowing and drifting snow will be possible in areas that pick up an inch or more.
Over in MN....1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible in out Central and Northern areas...A dusting in our Southern areas.....Blowing snow will be possible in areas that pick up an inch or more of snow

Busy day in the weather office!

Tons to talk about this morning...Busy weekend setting up here in the office...With out delay lets get right to it,shall we..
CURRENT CONDITIONS...
Temps at this hour are ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s....Radar is showing two bands on light rain showers over WI...First band is moving through Ashland and Iron down to Price and Rusk Counties...The second band of showers is moving through Eastern Bay Field County knocking on Ashland's door step as I type this....Skies for the most part are mostly cloudy,however some breaks are showing up over in MN in the SFC OBS and satellite confirms this.
TODAY....
That pesky upper level low that has been around for awhile will be moving out of the area..SFC analysis shows the 1006 MB low pressure over Eastern WI,as it moves away it will take the light rain and mist with it...I would not be shocked to see a few breaks in the cloud cover today...Some breaks showing up in the SFC OBS...Today will be the last warm day for awhile...Highs in the 50s seem to ok....
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....
Here is where the fun starts..988 MB low pressure over far Central Canada is forecasted to move to around Hudson Bay Canada as it does it is forecasted to deepen to around 987 MBS...This low is forecasted to push a strong cold front into and through the area tonight....Pressure gradient really tightens up tonight,more so on Sunday..Winds will become a big player starting after the frontal passage tonight...Winds from 20 to 30 MPH will be on the docket...Gust up to 40 to 45 MPH are possible from tonight through Sunday night....A shortwave will also plow into the area behind the cold front this will set the stage for rain mixing with and changing over to all snow tonight....Sunday we will see all snow across the area....Lets break this down more....Best chances at seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow shall be found over much of my Northern MN forecast area...Around an inch in my Central MN FA.Blowing snow may become a problem in these areas...Over is WI this will be fun....Ok lets start in my Southern zones and work North....In the Southern zones Little or snow accumulations,however might see a dusting......Lets move into the Central FA of WI....Here I'm still not to thrilled about accumulations,however may see up to an inch...Now for the Northern parts...LES snow is forecasted to kick in...The NWS has a winter storm watch out for the following Counties of WI...Ashland,Bay Field,and Iron.....The Central to Northern areas of these Counties Could pick up a total of 4 to 8 inches of snow by time the LES machine kicks off..While the Central parts of said Counties could pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow..Further South in these Counties maybe 1 to 3 inches of snow...See HWD for more details.
MONDAY...
A another cold day on tap,winds will lighten up...Will keep a chance of snow alive over our far Northern WI Counties until the LES shut down,otherwise look for a cloudy day..May see some seeing partly cloudy skies by afternoon....
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Temps still rather cool...Dry conditions are forecasted...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Through this time frame we see a warming trend...Temps are forecasted to rebound back into the 50s for the most part.....
WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THE NWS...
WI....Winter storm watch for the following Counties...Ashland,Bay Field,and Iron.....
MN....None attm.

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast headaches...Rain today tonight and early Saturday morning...Then Rain and snow showers Saturday night into Sunday evening...Winds will also be a problem...
Current Conditions across the forecast area.
Temps across Western and Northwest WI are in the lower to middle 40s....40° at 5:00 AM at the office in Rice Lake...Radar is showing a areas of rain showers over Central Barron County reaching down into Dunn,Chippewa,Eau Claire,Pierce,St. Croix,and into the Southeast 1/3 of Polk County..Rain is moving off towards the Northwest.....A few other showers can be found up in Burnett and Washburn Counties,also Douglas,Bayfield and Ashland Counties are under a rain shield this morning.
Today through early Saturday morning.
Current SFC analysis is showing that pesky 1013 MB low pressure over KS this morning.This low is forecasted to lift toward the Northeast through out the day should be just about over head tonight as it fills moisture is no problem for this system...Looking at the QPF charts we will see the heaviest of the rain up over my Northern parts of WI...Looks like a line from Ladysmith to Rice Lake over to Luck,point North of this line could ever well see close to an 1/2 inch to as much as 3/4 inches of rain from today through early Saturday morning.Saturday Afternoon the system pulls away from the area..Rain should be ending by early morning in my Southern areas,by mid morning in my Central areas,and around the noon to 1:00 PM in my Northern areas....May see some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon...
Saturday night through Sunday night.....
979 MB low pressure over far Northwestern Canada is forecasted to move East/Southeast during the Friday/Friday night time frame..By Saturday night the low pressure Should be over the Western parts of Hudson Bay..This low pressure will do a few things...First off it will drive a strong cold front into and through the area Saturday night,along with the cold front a shortwave will also dive Southeast right behind said front...Some moisture will work back into the area behind the cold front..Still not a lot of moisture for this system to work with,enough though to cause rain showers to mix with and become all snow showers Saturday night through Sunday night...We need to talk about the possibility of LES in my snow belts of WI...Cold Northwest/North winds flowing over the warm waters of Lake Superior is setting the stage for several inches of snow....Looks like anyone in on the South shore has a shot of LES,thinking is the main area will be from around Bay Field East wards...We will have to watch this close..Elsewhere's snow showers could whiten up the ground..Still not to thrilled about accumulations attm but will watch to see if I need to go with amounts..Right now just looks like light snow showers/flurries....Winds will become a problem tonight as the cold front plows into and through the area..Winds could gust up to 30 MPH Saturday night..Sunday winds could gust up to 40 MPH...Would not be shocked to see some wind guts up around 50 MPH at some stations...Pressure gradient is forecasted to really tighten up over my forecast area,however looking at the models my thinking is the more windy conditions will be found out over MN where winds could gusts up to 60 MPH....Either way still looks to be a winds end to the weekend....
Monday...
Skies should start to clear out over most of the my FA,however LES in the snow belts still look possible....
Temps will be rather warm today and Saturday..Temps will take a dive starting Saturday night....
Highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s should work out ok with lows in the 40s....On Sunday and Monday highs upper 30s to around 40 is the best way to run....Lows in the middle to upper 20s....
Good news is the rest of the forecast attm looks to be dry with a slight warming trend...Highs close to 50 by Wednesday and Thursday....Lows in the 20s....
Forecaster...Dirk Miller....

Snow is looking more likely on Sunday

Forecast concerns...Rain for Friday through Saturday...Then snow showers late Saturday night through Sunday evening..Accumulating snows also possible to likely across parts of my forecast area.
Low pressure to our Southwest over KS is forecasted to slowly work it's way Northeast into WI this will set the stage for widespread rainfall Friday and Friday night...Low pressure moves out of the are on Saturday,however still could see some light rain around the area....The main story will unfold on Late Saturday into Sunday...As the 974 MB low pressure over the Golf of Alaska is forecasted to move through the Northern parts of Canada before diving Southeast into Southern Canada just North of Lake Superior..By time the low get to that point it will have weakened to around 983 MBS said low is forecasted to bring in an a strong cold front...Not much moisture with said front,however some moisture does works it's way into the system..Also we find a shortwave diving into the area...What will be the big player will be the winds as pressure gradients increase Saturday night and Sunday.I think the strongest should be over Western /Central MN,however still on the strong to gust side over here in WI.Rain showers should change over to snow showers During Saturday night into early Sunday morning...Looks like the stage will also be set for LES up in my snow belt areas,some which may become heavy so accumulating snows will be possible to likely up there...The rest of the FA should attm only see light snow/flurries....We will be watching this event unfold as we get into Friday/Saturday...
Temps will be rather warm until Saturday night after that temps will be going down as the coldest air of this fall camps outs..Good news is temps will start to warm back up by Wednesday...Could see temps back close to if not into the lower 50s....
Forecaster... Dirk Miller

Long range forecast& longer trem forecast

Long range forecast through the period from Sunday Oct 26 through Tuesday Oct 28..
Temps are going no where but down through this tine frame Highs will start in the middle 40s and drop to around 40 by Monday and Tuesday....Lows in the upper 20s seems the way to run....
A strong cold front is forecasted to move into the Northwestern and West Central WI around Sunday late afternoon / Sunday night's time frame,along with said cold front a shortwave is also forecasted to dive South into the area..Cold air shall flow into the area allowing temps to reach the coldest readings thus far this fall...Which is normally happens about this time of year..With frontal boundary and shortwave forecasted to plow into the FA we could see a shot of rain/snow mix for Sunday night and into much of the day on Monday..I will have more updates on this this upcoming weekend....
Longer term Forecast..Wednesday Oct 29 through Oct 31...
Wednesday still looks to be on the cold side,however temps do warm by Thursday.with a slight dip come Halloween..Could be some rain showers around for Halloween,might see some wet snowflakes mixed in from time to time Halloween night...I'm not to trilled about the longer term forecast as it is way out there..
Also I will have my winter forecast issued this upcoming weekend....Little note...It's not going to be what you may think!

Forecast problems shall be found with rain chances today through Monday and then again Tuesday night through Saturday...Temps will also be tricky through the entire forecast period.
Current Conditions...
Temps this morning starting out on the warm side...Mainly in the 40s a few stations reporting temp at 50...Dewpoints are running from the middle 30s to the lower 40s....Radar is showing some light returns up in our far Northern FA of MN..Skies range from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy per satellite and SFC OBS...
For today through Monday.
SFC analysis shows a 1001 MB low pressure in Southern Canada with cold front reaching into the Eastern ND,and SD..Cold front is forecasted to move into and through the FA today,Winds will be switching from the South to a West/Northwest as the front pushes through...Did keep the chance of showers alive,though moisture is scant...Front will still be close enough to our WI Zones to keep the shot of showers here on Monday..Temps today will still be rather warm...50s seems the way to run....
Tuesday...
1028 MB high pressure build into the area.This should ensure the FA a nice day..Light winds..Temps will be a few degrees cooler that they were on Sunday...
Tuesday night through Saturday..
Models still not agreeing on the next system to move through the area,though slowly starting to come closer..Long range models GFS/ECMWF now agreeing that the upper level low should remain well to our South in KS,and MO areas....If this trend keeps pointing in that direction we may very well need to remove the rain from the forecast and run with mainly cloudy skies...As moisture will remain well South of the area...As of right now thinking is to leave rain in the forecast until short term models latch onto this system and we see how they handle it...Temps shall range from the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s

My forecast discussion

Not to much to really talk about this go around....Off and on chances of precip starting tomorrow then again on Wednesday of next week...Temps will be warmer today and tomorrow,however cooling back of as we push through the upcoming work week...
Current Conditions....
Temps have really cooled off last night and into this early morning...Middle to upper 30s found across our MN FA..A few spots along the Lake are reporting temps in the upper 20s...Over in our WI FA temps range from the lower 30s to the upper 20s...Looking at the satellite image we find clouds over our Northern areas of MN and far parts of Northwestern WI..We also see areas of fog showing up rather well on the fog imagery...All this is also confirmed by the SFC OBS,other than that clear to partly cloudy skies rule elsewhere's....
Today through tonight....
SFC analysis showing a 1027 MB high pressure centered over Southern MN/Southwestern WI as we get on the return flow WAA has/will kick in as Southerly winds bring in a little warmer air into the area..Will run with a dry forecast as dry air is in place in the boundary level area....Could see some showers get going tonight as we slowly start to moist up...Still looks to be dry for the most part...
Sunday through Sunday night...
Computer models pushing a cold front into the area at a rather fast clip...Will run with a chance of showers..Still really not thrilled about rainfall amounts with the speed of said cold front..
Monday through Tuesday night....
High pressure is forecasted to take control of our weather,setting the stage for a nice Monday and Tuesday....Will bring showers into the forecast for our MN FA Tuesday night,however I have elected to keep my WI FA dry...
Wednesday through Friday...
Low pressure is forecasted to move into the area this will ensure us the chance at rain showers through the period..Thinking is as of right now this should be all rain,however we will watch this as winter critical thickness values are going to be close...May have to add some snow wording into the forecast for Wednesday night and again on Thursday night...Still not thrilled about that just yet....

Your forecast for parts of MN,and WI

Forecast concerns for today through Monday...Thunderstorms,along with locally heavy rainfall,and temps...Lots to talk about once again, so lets get after it.
Current Conditions.
Temps are starting out rather warm this early morning...Middle to upper 50s,along with some lower 60s showing up on the SFC OBS...Dewpoints are rather close to the air temps so it's on the muggy side this morning.Some stations are reporting some fog....Radar is showing a large area of showers and thunderstorms..The area of showers and thunderstorms runs from parts of Cook County back into Lake County along with St.Louis County then up into Koochiching,Itasca,Cass,Hubbard,Beltrami,and Wadena Counties of MN..The showers and storms are moving North/Northeast...
Today.
Warm front will keep pushing North and should clear the MN FA by the late afternoon hours...This should help put an end to the showers and storms for a time,We could even see some peaks of sun through out the MN FA...Over in WI Thinking is showers and storms should hold off until tonight,however with the high moisture and some sun I sure would not be shocked to see a few ISO showers/storms around this afternoon...The whole FA will be in the warm sector of the storm system so temps will reflect this in the forecast...60s and 70s...With the warmer temps found over in WI zones...We might see temps here get close to 80...However I kept them in the middle 70s...
Tonight through Monday night.
Strong cold front will works it's way into the area as a low pressure moves towards the Northeast into Canada...PWS will increase to around 1.50 to 1.75 through out the area,WV satellite showing tropical moisture still flowing into the area along with the leftovers of hurricane Norbert...So showers and thunderstorms will be likely through this period...Locally heavy rainfall is possible through out the FA...No severe weather is forecasted from the thunderstorms....
Tuesday through Friday.
Temps take a dive through mid week...Highs in the 50s lows in the 30s,however it shall be dry...Next chance of rain looks to come into play Thursday night into Friday.

Forecast for parts of MN and WI

Lots to talk about today so lets get right to it..Forecast problems showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday then colder temps for the rest of the upcoming work week..Also a chance at some snowflakes in Northern parts of our MN FA.
Current Conditions.
At this hour temps are ranging from the middle to upper 40s across our MN FA,while in our WI zones temps are in the lower to middle 50s...Skies over our MN FA are mostly cloudy,while over in our WI areas skies are partly cloudy to clear.Satellite confirms this...Radar showing an area of showers over Koochiching and the Eastern part of Beltrami Counties of MN,this area of showers is moving Northeast...Another area of showers showing up over parts of Eastern Price and Iron Counties of WI,this area of showers is moving East,slightly Northeast....
Today through Tuesday.
SFC analysis shows a warm front that has pretty much clear our WI FA..This front reaches from far Northwestern WI back down into Central MN towards a low pressure over Southeast SD...Said warm front is forecasted to keep pushing North this will ensure more rain fall for our MN FA today and tonight...Some of the rain could become heavy once again...While our WI areas should see warmer temps under partly cloudy skies temps should hit into the 70s.....Warm front becomes a strong cold front and will start to work it's way East tomorrow through Monday...As it does more moisture will work it's way into the system,also a low pressure will move Northeast out of CO...What is also interesting is moisture from Norbert will also get tangled into this system...Heavy rainfall will be a good possibility Monday through Monday night as the cold front slams into the area...As of right now I don't have heavy rain wording in the forecast,however do have plenty of time to add it in....Tuesday cold front still close enough to keep a few showers alive through out the FA.....Also some snow could be possible over Northern parts of our MN FA on Tuesday....
Wednesday through Friday.
Colder temps will be the rule for this time frame...Wednesday should yield mostly sunny skies as a high pressure builds into the area,this will be short lived as computer models showing another system set to move into area for Thursday/Friday's time frame....
So to sum it all up.....
Temps will be warmer than yesterday in rain free areas....Heavy rainfall is possible Monday and Monday night....Then much colder temps on tap for the middle to the end of the work week...With another shot at rain Thursday/Friday's time frame.

The forecast for parts of MN and WI.

Forecast headaches,Showers and thunderstorms,dry air over much of our Central and Northern areas of MN,Temps,and the long term forecast....Lots to talk about today,so let get right to it.
Current Conditions.
Temps at this hour are ranging from the upper 20s to lower 40s across our MN forecast area,while in our WI zones temps are ranging from the middle 30s to the middle 40s...Cold spot in WI is Ashland where the temp is holding at 28° while the warm spot is over in Siren with a temp of 45°....dewpoints are ranging from the lower 20s to upper 30s across all of the FA....Higher dewpoints are found in our Southern zones of MN,and WI....Satellite showing a large area of clouds trying to work Northeast,however as the area of clouds move into the drier air,this has been eroding them....Radar is showing showers moving into our Southern areas of MN,and WI..The leading edge of the showers reach from around Onamia to just to the Southwest of Mora MN.....in WI a few showers are showing up on the Southwest door step of Barron County...The showers are moving towards the East/Northeast.....
Today through Tuesday.
High pressure over the Eastern part of lake Superior will cause some problems to the forecast....Dry air flowing over and off the lake into parts of MN FA should keep showers at bay for most of today into the early evening hours...Thinking is skies will become partly cloudy as the day flies by....Will bring rain into this part of the FA tonight as the high pressure moves far enough away and as we moisten up the atmosphere..Still will not run with thunderstorms in this area as all of the dynamics remain in our Southern areas.....Speaking of which time to talk about the Southern areas of our MN FA and all of our WI FA.....Showers and thunderstorms already showing up in these areas...This trend will hold for the next few days as a low pressure over the CO will work to the East/Northeast ....On Tuesday we will still be battling the low pressure over the area more showers and thunderstorms will be possible...Will keep thunderstorm wording confined to our Southern zones ATTM......Nevertheless the whole FA should see some good rainfall amounts from this system during this whole time frame....
Wednesday through Friday...
Wednesday still could hold a few showers over our Eastern areas of MN,and WI FA....Though this should come to an end rather fast...Thursday is looking to a rather nice day for the Northwoods...Thursday night into the weekend looks like it could end up on the wet side with another system moving into the area.....
Long Term Forecast....(10/12-10-14)
The GFSX model still showing temps to take a dive during this time frame....
Looking at the 850 MB chart off of said model temps on 10/12 fall to around -4 to - 6c...By 10/13 the temps fall to around the -8c...Low pressure is forecasted to move out of the Eastern Dakotas into Central MN then up into Canada..The track of this low will have to be watched closely....This system could give us our first snow flakes/snowfall of the season in parts of our FA....We will be watching this as the we get closer to this time frame,right now I'm still not to thrilled about this....After the cold snap temps start to warm back up by the 10/15.....

Hard frost again

Another hard frost last night/early this morning..I had a temp of 28.5°...I'm may be on crutches but I still got outside to take these pictures....The growing season has ended....Well it has ending yesterday morning

Update on my broken foot

....I will still be in this cam walker and on crutches for another 3 weeks...The pain is some what getting bearable...I'm still working which is a good thing...Just I have to do sit down jobs.Which I'm now getting used to....I have been going to pt to get some of my left leg and hip working again...After the 3 weeks I go back into see if this cam walker can come off..If it does then I start the long rehab..I'm shocked at how much leg strength I have lost in the 3 week period...But any who I'm slowly getting better!

Your local forecast dis.

This forecast dis was taken from the firm I forecast for...It shall work out ok for my forecast area of WI...As I also have this area to forecast for in the firm....So here it is.....
Forecast problems for the weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week...Temps along with chances of showers and thunderstorms...
Current Conditions.
Temps at this hour are holding in the middle 20s to lower 30s across the FA..Skies are partly cloudy to clear through out the FA....
Today through Sunday.
A 1020 MB high pressure sitting over Northern WI at this hour..This area of high pressure has been in control of the our weather over the last few days..Which has also been responsible for the ending of the growing season through out most of the FA....We also find a old cold front still draped over Southern IN,IL,into Northern MO and back into Northeast NE..a trof is also moving into Central MT through the Northwest 1/3 of WY. A 1008 MB low pressure is forecasted to form in the Eastern part of CO later today..Also we shall find another low pressure system getting it's act going over Southeastern parts of MT...These two systems are forecasted to move East through Saturday night into Sunday..This will drag a warm front towards the North..Just how far North the front makes it is still uncertain...With high pressure East of the area and winds off the lake this may keep said warm front to the South of the area,or just into our far Southern zones....Did run with thunderstorms in our Southern zones and just showers in our Central and Northern areas of MN..Ran with storms in all of my WI areas for Sunday...Will have to watch to see if instability does increase in our Central and Northern area of MN...On top of it all we could see a good deal of rainfall across our Southern zones of MN and WI..QPF is forecasted to be around the one inch mark to as much as 1.57"....This would be a two day total amount.(Late Saturday night through early Monday morning)..However I did take the Mod rain wording out of the forecast for said areas...We will need to watch this closely..I may very well may need to add it back.........One thing that looks to be a giving attm,is temps should warm up into the upper 50s to lowers 60s...With lows in the 40s for the most part.
Monday through Wednesday.
Will keep showers and storms alive through this period...Models showing a another trof of low pressure moving into the area...Here again thinking is are far Southern areas have the best chances at seeing showers and thunderstorms..Temps still remain rather warm...upper 50s to middle 60s look to be the way to run....Long wave moves out of the area on Wednesday..So rain chances should be decreasing as we work through Wednesday......
Zonal flow is forecasted to take hold of the area by later in the week..This should ensure us dry and warm conditions..
Longer term forecast.
10/12 through 10/14
Long range model GFSX is forecasting a cold period....850 MB temps drop into the -8c by 10/14....Also noted is a low pressure taking shape over the area temps look cold enough for our first snowfall of the season....I'm not to excited about this just yet,nevertheless it is something we will have to watch,as it is that time of year...I will have an update on this in tomorrow forecastDiscussion .

Thunderstorm days for September

There was 5 thunderstorm days in the month of September...There was a line of severe thunderstorms that moved through Barron County on Friday night into the wee early morning hours of Saturday...That was on the Friday the 26/Saturday the 27...Did produce some hail and gusty winds...A few tress were reported down in some of the Northern areas of Barron County,however with the broken foot thing going on I did not get out to look at them areas...Anyway the number of thunderstorm days were down from August by two days...What will October hold,and can we see severe thunderstorms in October....Well only being 3 days into October it is hard to say what will take place for the the rest of the month...I do feel we will see some more thunderstorms this month...The forecast will have them in it( the forecast will be issued once I get back from my Docs appt.)...As far as severe thunderstorms go that will be anyone's gusse...We have had severe storms in October before,so it can happen again....We also had tons of snow in October also...So yes we will have to watch for our first snowfall this month also....Yes October can be a very busy month in the forecast center,but again it can be a rather dull month in the forecast center...

Hard frost

Hard frost last night along with freezing fog...The low last night at my house was a cold 29.3°...Also had some freezing fog this morning..My road was a little slippery this morning....
Most areas saw frost last night however most areas didn't see a killing frost..I think around my area we did see the killing frost...Seems like points North of HYW 48 was the colder areas..Hayward is reporting a temp of 28°....Get over into my MN forecast area temps are in the lower to middle 20s with a few lower 30s....Will have a forecast later this morning....Will it remain cold or will it warm up ?....I will answer that one later....