Friday, October 24, 2008

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast headaches...Rain today tonight and early Saturday morning...Then Rain and snow showers Saturday night into Sunday evening...Winds will also be a problem...
Current Conditions across the forecast area.
Temps across Western and Northwest WI are in the lower to middle 40s....40° at 5:00 AM at the office in Rice Lake...Radar is showing a areas of rain showers over Central Barron County reaching down into Dunn,Chippewa,Eau Claire,Pierce,St. Croix,and into the Southeast 1/3 of Polk County..Rain is moving off towards the Northwest.....A few other showers can be found up in Burnett and Washburn Counties,also Douglas,Bayfield and Ashland Counties are under a rain shield this morning.
Today through early Saturday morning.
Current SFC analysis is showing that pesky 1013 MB low pressure over KS this morning.This low is forecasted to lift toward the Northeast through out the day should be just about over head tonight as it fills moisture is no problem for this system...Looking at the QPF charts we will see the heaviest of the rain up over my Northern parts of WI...Looks like a line from Ladysmith to Rice Lake over to Luck,point North of this line could ever well see close to an 1/2 inch to as much as 3/4 inches of rain from today through early Saturday morning.Saturday Afternoon the system pulls away from the area..Rain should be ending by early morning in my Southern areas,by mid morning in my Central areas,and around the noon to 1:00 PM in my Northern areas....May see some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon...
Saturday night through Sunday night.....
979 MB low pressure over far Northwestern Canada is forecasted to move East/Southeast during the Friday/Friday night time frame..By Saturday night the low pressure Should be over the Western parts of Hudson Bay..This low pressure will do a few things...First off it will drive a strong cold front into and through the area Saturday night,along with the cold front a shortwave will also dive Southeast right behind said front...Some moisture will work back into the area behind the cold front..Still not a lot of moisture for this system to work with,enough though to cause rain showers to mix with and become all snow showers Saturday night through Sunday night...We need to talk about the possibility of LES in my snow belts of WI...Cold Northwest/North winds flowing over the warm waters of Lake Superior is setting the stage for several inches of snow....Looks like anyone in on the South shore has a shot of LES,thinking is the main area will be from around Bay Field East wards...We will have to watch this close..Elsewhere's snow showers could whiten up the ground..Still not to thrilled about accumulations attm but will watch to see if I need to go with amounts..Right now just looks like light snow showers/flurries....Winds will become a problem tonight as the cold front plows into and through the area..Winds could gust up to 30 MPH Saturday night..Sunday winds could gust up to 40 MPH...Would not be shocked to see some wind guts up around 50 MPH at some stations...Pressure gradient is forecasted to really tighten up over my forecast area,however looking at the models my thinking is the more windy conditions will be found out over MN where winds could gusts up to 60 MPH....Either way still looks to be a winds end to the weekend....
Monday...
Skies should start to clear out over most of the my FA,however LES in the snow belts still look possible....
Temps will be rather warm today and Saturday..Temps will take a dive starting Saturday night....
Highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s should work out ok with lows in the 40s....On Sunday and Monday highs upper 30s to around 40 is the best way to run....Lows in the middle to upper 20s....
Good news is the rest of the forecast attm looks to be dry with a slight warming trend...Highs close to 50 by Wednesday and Thursday....Lows in the 20s....
Forecaster...Dirk Miller....