Sunday, October 5, 2008

The forecast for parts of MN and WI.

Forecast headaches,Showers and thunderstorms,dry air over much of our Central and Northern areas of MN,Temps,and the long term forecast....Lots to talk about today,so let get right to it.
Current Conditions.
Temps at this hour are ranging from the upper 20s to lower 40s across our MN forecast area,while in our WI zones temps are ranging from the middle 30s to the middle 40s...Cold spot in WI is Ashland where the temp is holding at 28° while the warm spot is over in Siren with a temp of 45°....dewpoints are ranging from the lower 20s to upper 30s across all of the FA....Higher dewpoints are found in our Southern zones of MN,and WI....Satellite showing a large area of clouds trying to work Northeast,however as the area of clouds move into the drier air,this has been eroding them....Radar is showing showers moving into our Southern areas of MN,and WI..The leading edge of the showers reach from around Onamia to just to the Southwest of Mora MN.....in WI a few showers are showing up on the Southwest door step of Barron County...The showers are moving towards the East/Northeast.....
Today through Tuesday.
High pressure over the Eastern part of lake Superior will cause some problems to the forecast....Dry air flowing over and off the lake into parts of MN FA should keep showers at bay for most of today into the early evening hours...Thinking is skies will become partly cloudy as the day flies by....Will bring rain into this part of the FA tonight as the high pressure moves far enough away and as we moisten up the atmosphere..Still will not run with thunderstorms in this area as all of the dynamics remain in our Southern areas.....Speaking of which time to talk about the Southern areas of our MN FA and all of our WI FA.....Showers and thunderstorms already showing up in these areas...This trend will hold for the next few days as a low pressure over the CO will work to the East/Northeast ....On Tuesday we will still be battling the low pressure over the area more showers and thunderstorms will be possible...Will keep thunderstorm wording confined to our Southern zones ATTM......Nevertheless the whole FA should see some good rainfall amounts from this system during this whole time frame....
Wednesday through Friday...
Wednesday still could hold a few showers over our Eastern areas of MN,and WI FA....Though this should come to an end rather fast...Thursday is looking to a rather nice day for the Northwoods...Thursday night into the weekend looks like it could end up on the wet side with another system moving into the area.....
Long Term Forecast....(10/12-10-14)
The GFSX model still showing temps to take a dive during this time frame....
Looking at the 850 MB chart off of said model temps on 10/12 fall to around -4 to - 6c...By 10/13 the temps fall to around the -8c...Low pressure is forecasted to move out of the Eastern Dakotas into Central MN then up into Canada..The track of this low will have to be watched closely....This system could give us our first snow flakes/snowfall of the season in parts of our FA....We will be watching this as the we get closer to this time frame,right now I'm still not to thrilled about this....After the cold snap temps start to warm back up by the 10/15.....