Saturday, October 4, 2008

Your local forecast dis.

This forecast dis was taken from the firm I forecast for...It shall work out ok for my forecast area of WI...As I also have this area to forecast for in the firm....So here it is.....
Forecast problems for the weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week...Temps along with chances of showers and thunderstorms...
Current Conditions.
Temps at this hour are holding in the middle 20s to lower 30s across the FA..Skies are partly cloudy to clear through out the FA....
Today through Sunday.
A 1020 MB high pressure sitting over Northern WI at this hour..This area of high pressure has been in control of the our weather over the last few days..Which has also been responsible for the ending of the growing season through out most of the FA....We also find a old cold front still draped over Southern IN,IL,into Northern MO and back into Northeast NE..a trof is also moving into Central MT through the Northwest 1/3 of WY. A 1008 MB low pressure is forecasted to form in the Eastern part of CO later today..Also we shall find another low pressure system getting it's act going over Southeastern parts of MT...These two systems are forecasted to move East through Saturday night into Sunday..This will drag a warm front towards the North..Just how far North the front makes it is still uncertain...With high pressure East of the area and winds off the lake this may keep said warm front to the South of the area,or just into our far Southern zones....Did run with thunderstorms in our Southern zones and just showers in our Central and Northern areas of MN..Ran with storms in all of my WI areas for Sunday...Will have to watch to see if instability does increase in our Central and Northern area of MN...On top of it all we could see a good deal of rainfall across our Southern zones of MN and WI..QPF is forecasted to be around the one inch mark to as much as 1.57"....This would be a two day total amount.(Late Saturday night through early Monday morning)..However I did take the Mod rain wording out of the forecast for said areas...We will need to watch this closely..I may very well may need to add it back.........One thing that looks to be a giving attm,is temps should warm up into the upper 50s to lowers 60s...With lows in the 40s for the most part.
Monday through Wednesday.
Will keep showers and storms alive through this period...Models showing a another trof of low pressure moving into the area...Here again thinking is are far Southern areas have the best chances at seeing showers and thunderstorms..Temps still remain rather warm...upper 50s to middle 60s look to be the way to run....Long wave moves out of the area on Wednesday..So rain chances should be decreasing as we work through Wednesday......
Zonal flow is forecasted to take hold of the area by later in the week..This should ensure us dry and warm conditions..
Longer term forecast.
10/12 through 10/14
Long range model GFSX is forecasting a cold period....850 MB temps drop into the -8c by 10/14....Also noted is a low pressure taking shape over the area temps look cold enough for our first snowfall of the season....I'm not to excited about this just yet,nevertheless it is something we will have to watch,as it is that time of year...I will have an update on this in tomorrow forecastDiscussion .