Chages made to forecast,short term and middle and long term!

Forecast headaches...Snow today..LES snows along the North shore..The middle term and long term forecast,along with temps in for this work week...

Current Conditions...
Temps this morning are well below 0 some of the coldest air drained into the over night..some stations reported -20 up in Northern MN while here at the office in Rice Lake we recorded -11.7...Skies range from clear in parts of WI to cloudy through MN...Radar is showing a band of snow in Cass,Crow wing,Todd,and Wadena and points South of there..This area is moving East/Northeast...Also radar is showing some LES forming over the open waters of Superior this area is moving North towards Southern Lake County,may brush Southern ST.Louis County..This is the area we will have to watch over the next few hours....

SFC ANALYSIS....
High pressure over head to start the day...Clipper type system over Northwestern ND...High pressure will move away from the area and be replace by snow,which is showing up on radar...This clipper is forecasted to move a tad faster than thought yesterday so I have decided to drop snow totals down to 1 to 2 inches...

Today through Tonight...
Clouds will increase in those area currently under clear skies...Snow will be working it's way into the area at a rather fast clip,however with that said with the dry air locked in over parts of the FA this morning..The snow may be delayed...LES snows will be setting up over our North Shore areas as Southerly winds pick up moisture of Lake Superior..Snow accumulations in these areas could range from 3 to as much as 8 inches by time is all said and done Monday,as winds back towards the North...What is interesting is upper level soundings still showing a chance at freezing drizzle tonight,I did not add that into the forecast as there like only a 20% chance..Adding into this diss. Should cover that for now..

Monday through Tuesday...
Things looking interesting...ECMWF,GFS,along with NAM..showing a storm system in the Plains moving a little more North than forecasted earlier....This will only brush our Southern Zones with some light snow/flurries...The accumulating snows should remain well South of the area,In Southern WI.

Wednesday through the Sunday...
This is looking to be a hard period to forecast for..As Arctic air has a strong hold of the FA,This will cause problems for trying to time clipper systems moving down stream and snowfall amounts...Main storm track still remains well South of the area.So the best way to run with this forecast cycle is to stay with the past trends on systems....Some of the coldest air thus far this winter will be making it's way into the area by weeks end,and lasting into the at least the first part of the long term cycle...see below...

Longer term...
GFS showing a low pressure forming over the NM area.This is forecasted to spit out pieces of energy through out the period ,However looks like most of that will remain South of the FA...Still clipper type systems coming in at us...By Dec 22 we see a change taking shape.GFS has a 986 MB low pressure,which I think is way to low...Forming over the CO area...This low is forecasted to move into Southern WI by Dec 23...GFS has the low around 996 MBs which is easier to buy into...If this hold true we could be dealing with a snow storm right around the start of the Holiday travel time...As of right now if this all comes into play,looks like the best areas to see snow would be in our Southern zones of MN,and WI..Temps remain rather cold..A brief warm up by next weekend,before we enter the cold once again...