Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Major snowstorm this weekend..It's possible

Major snow storm possible this weekend..Could be a good possibility....Models mainly ECMWF is holding it's own over the last few days on this system...GFS has been trying to push this system way to far North,However the last couple of runs GFS is slowly coming in line with what ECMWF has been screaming....Though feel GFS is still to far North..As it has the low moving right over Western WI..Though before that it had the low moving into Far Northwestern WI...
So for this forecast..I will only talk about the weekend into Monday.I will not be talking about the short term forecast.....I will use a blend of ECMWF and GFS...Will worry about the short term models in tomorrow night's update...
Saturday/Saturday night we find a low pressure taking shape over the CO/NM area..This low is forecasted to be around 993 MBS.The low is forecasted to move Northeast,also we find a trof extended North of the low...As the low moves Northeast it is forecasted to deepen to around 991..Here is where so of the problems crop up..With the more Northerly track per GFS..Would mean an onslaught of rain...I'm can't but into that.As I don't think GFS has a good handle on this ,as shown in it's first runs on this system...I do however believe some rain will be possible in the Southern far Counties of my FA....Thinking is as of right now is for mainly all snow across the FA,some rain may be mixed in on Saturday..Nothing like the GFS is yelling right now....
ECMWF keeps the colder air around,but still warm with highs close to 30..However with the shallow snow pack, do think upper 20s look better than temps in the 30s with no sunshine....Sunday looks to be a snowy day on tap...Even GFS is showing that....Strong cold front is forecasted to work into and through the area Sunday/Sunday night...Temps will be getting colder once again...This system does have the possibility for strong wind also...So right now we will need to watch to see what model will join the other one...Will also wait for short term models to see what they pick up on.....So more updates will be forthcoming as details become more clear..