Monday, December 29, 2008

Not much change needed to forecast/did fine tune snowfall amounts using a point to point system.

Side note...

I see the NWS is starting to buy into this forecast...Still I think they have not picked up on the finer details for the most part,they are slowly getting there though...Just shows you not all forecasters will agree all the time....

Forecast is still on track...Everything is looking good in the short term and middle term along with the long term...So no big headaches...Arctic air will become more established over the area..

Current Conditions....

Temps have warmed up nice over night...Temps went from the teens to the twenties..Winds have begain to pick up...This will be the trend for today...Radar still showing some light snow/flurries over Rusk County..The area should clear within the next hour...


SFC ANALYSIS....

Low pressure at the head of Lake Superior this morning,,,Trailing cold front through Central MN ,meanwhile we see a warm front slicing through WI..1026 MB high pressure over Saskatchewan Canada...Our next system is sitting over the OR and WA...

Today through Tonight...

Low pressure over LK Superior will keep treaking Eastwards this will drag a cold front through the area before 18z today,this will also bring to an end to the snow falling across Northern WI....1026 High pressure is forecasted to build into the area through the day and tonight..Pressure gradients will increase between the low to our East and high pressure building in from the Northwest..This will lead to winds gusting up to 30 MPH....Temps today for the most part have reached there highs...We should see them falling after the cold front pushes through....Will increase clouds for tonight might see some light snow start to break out late tonight as the atmosphere become saturated at a rather fast pace......

Tuesday through Wednesday night....

Low pressure is forecasted to be in MT around 00z Tuesday this low is than forecasted to track into Southeast SD by 12z Tuesday,By 00z Wednesday the low should be over Northeast IL....This track as been forecasted over the last few days...Frontogenesis is forecasted to move into the FA...System does have enough moisture to work with and models keep pointing at the best forcing over Northern,and Central areas of the following Counties Barron,Polk,into Rusk Counties...This would be the likely areas to pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow, with some areas in Barron and Rusk Counties could pick up 6 plus inches of snow...Points to the North of said Counties can except anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of snow.....Meanwhile points to the South of Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties should see 2 to 4 inches also....May be a few 5 inch reports closer to the Central part of said Counties...Lets break this down into a line...Points North of a Balsam Lake to Cameron to Weyerhaeuser line 3 to 6 inches...Points Just North of Cumberland to Rice Lake and Bruce Line could see 6 plus inches of snow...Points South of a Taylors Falls, Turtle Lake and Sheldon should see 2 to 4 inches of snow......
Snow should fall mainly during the late morning and through the afternoon hours....Tuesday night system pulls far enough away we could see skies slowly clear...This will set the stage for temps to fall to below zero readings...Wednesday we get a break in the snowfall dept..Though temp will struggle to get out of the single digits...Temps will fall below zero once again for Wednesday night....

New Years Day through Saturday....

We find yet another storm system that has it's eye's set on the FA to ring in the New Year....Oh we aren't done yet, Saturday yet another system is in the decks..Each passing system will sever to draw more colder air into the FA Temps in the teens to lower twenties with lows either side of zero..More on these system through out tomorrow......