Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Forecast..Off and on snow, up and down temps

Forecast problems through the rest of the week and upcoming weekend,along with the middle, and longer term forecast...Temps along with off and on snow chances...

Current Conditions...

Temps over the fresh snow pack really took a dive last night....Most areas reporting middle teens below zero,Here at the office 19 below...Did come up a little...Other areas that did not pick up as much snow are reporting temps in the single digits below...Skies are clear through the area...Winds for the most part are calm to light...


SFC ANALYSIS....

The system that brought heavy snows to parts of the FA is now well of to our East...Meanwhile this morning we find a 1039 MB high pressure centered over Southern SD...Our next system of interests now coming on shore in British Columbia with a frontal system pushing on shore in WA,and OR......A break Friday..Our next area of interest coming on shore around Northern WA.....This will bring another shot of snow to the area starting Friday late night and lasting through late Sunday...

Today....

Ridge of high pressure keeps building into the area...This shall ensure us mostly sunny skies and lighter winds...Temps will be hard pressed to get through the single digits through out much of the FA..May go above 10 or so in my Southern areas of WI..South of a line from ST.Croix to a Taylor Counties....All in All a great day to get out and enjoy the snow...

Tonight through Thursday night...

High pressure slips away and wind are forecasted to become Southerly..WAA kicks in so temps won't get out of hand like Tuesday night...SFC low pressure will work its way closer to the area...This low is forecasted to hang the MN,Canada boarder..By 06z Thursday the low should be just North of ND by 12z low will be pushing just North of MN this will drag a frontal boundary into MN and through WI by 00z Friday...Snow is forecasted to break out ahead and long the cold front with some wrap around snow behind the front....Best forcing and lift will remain well North of My FA....Parts of Northern WI could pick up 1 to maybe as much as 3 inches of snow,While the rest of the FA picks up from an 1/2 to as much as 2 inches of snow...Temps should be in the 20s for the most part,while some lower 30s possible in my Southern areas..Lows tonight should be either side of zero Central and Northern areas...While in my Southern areas temps in the single digits seem to be the way to run.

Friday...

A break in the action once again..Temps Friday will be a few degrees cooler that Thursday as more Arctic air flows on behind the departing system...Lower to middle teens for highs while lows dip to lower to middle single digits....

Friday night through Sunday....

More snow on it's way through this time frame....By Friday 12z we find a 994 MB low pressure over Northern ID..This low is forecasted to move East ...Looks like a inverted trof is going to set up over the FA...GFS model is painting around .25 QPF for the area..If this plays out we good be dealing with another winter storm,like the one we just got dealing with for the weekend...We will watch it as models aren't seeing eye to eye on the finer details...This will be worked out over the next few days...

Longer term..Jan 6 th through Jan 16 th...

This time frame looks to be off and on shots of Arctic air....Bt the end of the period models showing the mother load of Arctic air ready to dump in the FA if this does pan out we could be dealing with the coldest air of this winter by Jan 16 th..This all remains to been seen this far out...Will still see off and on snow chances as systems work their way down through the pesky Northwest flow that has plagued the area most of this winter thus far....