Light frost

Just as forecasted from last Tuesday right through yesterday...Parts of my FA did see their first frost of the late summer/early fall...Here at The Weather Center we had 34.3 with light frost on my windsheild along with the grass this morning....

Record cold high...

Record cold highs fell by the wayside yesterday....This info comes from the NWS....Yesterday high for EAU was 62°this has broken the old record of 63° set back in 1965 and in 1903....Toinght's record low for EAU is 38°.....

Frost Advisory

The NWS has issued a FROST ADVISORY for my Central and Northern FA.....Some areas of frost still look possible in my Southern areas as well....Still thinking the best areas to see widespread frost will be points North of HWY 8..South of said line patchy frost....

This morning's fog plus a fast forecast

By all means not the best pictures,nevertheless they are cool...Speaking of cool,temps this morning did drop to 39.8°..Today temps shall be in the lower to middle 60s..Frost likely tonight...See post below for that info....

Frost likely Sunday night/forecast

Cold,cloudy,off and on showers, blustery Saturday,highs never made it above the middle 50s here at The Weather Center...How long will this fall weather last you ask?

Shortwave that is bringing the FA off and on showers is forecasted to keep pushing Southwest then it is forecasted to dive South this evening/tonight...Meanwhile a very cold high pressure will be moving into the area later tonight...This should help slowly clear skies from West to East...Thinking is tonight the skies will remain cloudy for to long for any amount of radiation cooling to setup...This should keep the chances of frost out of the FA....My far Northern areas away form Lake Superior may see some areas of frost tonight,if skies up there clear out sooner.....Nevertheless it will be a rather cold night with lows in the upper 30s up North to lower 40s elsewhere's...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT....

High pressure takes firm hold of the FA..This will give us a shot of sunny skies...Temps will be warmer than today...Looking at middle 60s through out the FA.....Sunday night...Clear skies,and light winds will set the stage for very cold record tying or busting night across the FA....Temps dive into the middle 30s points North of HWY 8.....South of HWY 8 temps will fall into the upper 30s.....Frost is looking more likely Sunday night from points North of HWY 8..South of said line frost chances do drop off,however still could see some of the colder areas seeing patchy areas of frost...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

Still cold temps in the deck....Though WAA will slowly kick in this will allow temps under sunny skies to kick back up into the upper 60s to lower 70s,while lows fall back off into the lower to middle 60s under clear skies....

THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK....

Overall should be a dry week with temps working their way back into the middle 70s with lows dropping back into the 50s.....

Update on the severe drought

The area is still locked under a severe drought as of this week...Some improvement has been seen,however it's a little to late for the cash crops like corn,oats,wheat...As we head into fall and if we can keep getting the rainfall we have been seeing more improving conditions shall be had....All MAP CAME FROM THE CPC WEBSITE.......

Frost possible this wekend

Frost is still possible this weekend....Strong cold front will be pushing through the area Friday...Still left over rain showers will be possible on Saturday into Saturday night if clouds clear out sooner on Saturday night,frost will be possible North of a hwy 8 line as lows dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s...Biggest concern will be Sunday night/Monday morning as we shall be under mostly clear skies,light winds...This will set the stage once again for very cold temps...Lows forecasted to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s...Frost will be possible once again..Once again place North of hwy 8 stand a chance at seeing frost....Points North of Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties have a better chance at widespread frost...Meanwhile Points North of Hwy 8 have the chance at seeing frost,mainly in out colder spots..One will want to keep up on the latest forecast on the chances of frost..As the way it looks right now it won't be a killing frost,however things can change...Either way this weekend is setting up to be a very cold one,may see some record cold highs being tied or broken...Highs this weekend will be lucky to reach into the lower 60s..Some areas may not get out of the 50s for highs...Lows will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s across the FA....Temps do slowly warm through the nest work week back up to the middle 70s for highs with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s...The cold summer that won't die!! What will this winter bring ? in a few weeks or we will have our winter forecast out...Last winter we nailed it down right to a tee...Lets see if we can do the same this winter.....

Rainfall still well below normal

Did some researching tonight....We are still 5.85 inches below normal for the session rainfall...Will have August rainfall amounts once this month comes to an end...Will have a drought update sometime this upcoming weekend...All kinds of great info coming this weekend!!

Heavy rainfall amounts

This morning the area had showers and thunderstorms move through..At one point in time the storms were training over the same areas...Barron County hit the jack pot with rainfall amounts up to 3 to 4 inches...Here at The Weather Center we had 1.98 inches of rainfall...See radar shot for total rainfall amounts around our Central FA.This all happen just ahead and along the cold front that pushed through this morning....Forecast looks fallish for sure..Temps by the weekend will be lucky to to hit the middle 60s and lows middle 40s...May see some frost next week...Details on that this weekend..Maybe before..

Nice weekend on tap....

Fall morning this morning....Temps here at the Weather Center in the middle 40s...45.3 ...Nice weekend on tap of the FA..Forecast problems come in on Monday...Details below.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Cool fall morning across the FA temps...Cold spot is Hayward there are reporting 39° at this 4 AM hour...That may drop a few more degrees as we head toward sunrise..Warm spot is Chippewa they are showing a temp of 52°...Dewpoints this morning are hold close to the air temps,this has kicked of some areas of fog this early morning..Winds are light to calm which aided in the fog formation...This shows up rather well on the fog imagery and the 4 km fog/reflectivity imagery...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather map shows a 1021 MB High pressure sitting over ND,extending down into Southern NE/Northern KS...Cold front that cleared the area on Thursday is now into the Eastern States...Our next weather maker is a CLDFNT now pushing into MT Central ID then reaching back into Northern CA....Also we find a 1008 MB low pressure just North of the MT area.......

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....

High pressure will rule with an iron fist this weekend,bringing dry conditions to the area under MSTLY sunny skies..Winds will also be light....Highs today shall range from the upper 60s North to around 73-74 South....On Sunday highs will range from the lower to upper 70s across the FA....Lows tonight shall dip back down to the middle 40s to upper 40s Central and Southern areas....While my Northern areas could fall back into the upper 30s once again...Would not be shocked at all to see a few frost reports in my colder areas of my Northern FA.....Winds will remain light this should lead to more fog formation...Lows on Sunday night shall range from the middle 40s North to middle 50 Central to the middle to upper 50s South....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.....

Temps through this time frame head for the lower 80s....While lows hold in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and fall into the middle to upper 50s for Tuesday night....That was the easy part....Now lets talk about thunderstorm chances.....CLDFNT/Shortwave will be moving into the FA...Looking at the H7 temps on Monday looks like we will a rather strong cap in place keeping thunderstorms at bay until around Monday evening as the cap begins to weaken...H7 temps range from 12c to as warm as 14c during the day Monday...Monday evening into Monday night cap weakens to allow for showers and thunderstorms to form also LLJ kicks in so we may be dealing with an MCS..Some thing we will have to watch....Tuesday the CLDFNT/Shortwave should be pushing through the area during the mid morning hrs...Still should have showers and thunderstorms around the area...This should clear the Northern and Central areas by late Tuesday afternoon,and clear the Southern areas in the early to mid evening hrs...This will set the stage for just MSTLY CDLY skies Tuesday night.....

LONG TERM FCST....(REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK)...

Back to a dry period....Highs shall range from the lower to middle 70s,with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.....

Drought conditions

We are still locked under severe drought conditions despite all the rainfall we have picked up over the last few weeks..Since my last drought update...There are still reports of wells drying up over in the Cumbaerland area,as well as others through out Barron County....Drought conditions are likely to slowly improve as we keep heading into fall...Some with any luck we will break out of this 2 to 4 year drought we have have been locked under...Day 6 through day 10 shows the FA to be either side of normal in rainfall..Meanwhile temps will remain below norms...Rule for 2009....Looking ahead from day 10 through 15...Rainfall once again close to norms(either side of norms) Temps close to norms....The rainfall we did pick up was much needed however after talking with local farmers they all said it came a little to late for the corn...They said they would not get their max yield from it or even come close to it...Plus the cold summer didn't help out either,was not a humid summer by summer means..Corn does need the higher dewpoints to yeild a good crop....Two things working agaisnt the farmers....Also many of the area lakes are well below normal...Even with all the rain they have not come up that much...Will have pictures of silver lake once again to show everyone what little the rain helped so far...Reason for this is,trees,grass,crops are eating up the rain that does not run off...Leaving the very little water to make it to the water table...We should slowly start to see this improve as we head through fall,and when the crops,trees,grass slowly starts to die off...(that is if we can can keep getting rainfall amounts like we have had over the last few weeks...So stay tuned over the next few weeks for more updates on this severe drought which looks to be slowly coming to an end....

Detailed write up

Detailed write up to yesterday's event with a few rants here and there...
Many questions were asked during Yesterday or comments were made about the afternoon event......The one I like or hated the most "this is not tornado weather" My reply was oh really,I did not know there was such a thing a "tornado weather" in all of my 25 plus years of chasing I never had a clue there was such a thing as 'tornado weather"...Lets get this straight right off the get go....Tornadoes can happen anytime any where,and in every month,if conditions are just right...Whether it's a hot humid day with very good instbly and wind shear...Down to the cold air set up with little intsbly and very good wind shear..As long as we got some lift and strong wind shear in all the levels of the atmosphere....I've seen tornadoes when the air temps were in the 40s....So there is no such thing a "tornado weather"..Yesterday the cloud cover and showers kept INSTBLY very low hence there was very little thunder...Wind shear yesterday was off the charts...Which brings me to this..."I was surprised this happen"..Yes I have heard or read that from forecasters and people who forecast as a hobby....Well if one would have looked at everything they would have seen the wind shear very strong and well in place and knew something could have happen...So did this surprise me ? NO not all ...Infact I was thinking about leaving work around 2 pm and go chasing...I didn't and kick myself for not doing so...However no biggie as I got off work at 4 pm all heck was taking place...So headed for Eastern Polk/Western Barron County....Like I said in my post below saw many spin ups,very brief lasting no more than a few seconds tops...All the spins I saw were in Barron County...See post below as to where...Again no damage was seen...Highest wind gust I had was around 45 MPH,enough to blow some twig and leaves around..That was out in the different areas I was in...The 45 MPH gust was read just East of Cumberland on 8th street...With a 40 MPH wind gust here at the office...\

Ok so what was the setup for yesterday's event...Simple low pressure moving across MN while it did the low started to deepen rather fast....Yes computer models showed this very well...The Low moved over the Cities then into Western WI....I do have to laugh I had seen some write ups on this and some are saying a front...No there was no front in the area,just the low pressure...Temps were in the 60s to lower 70s,while dewpoints were in the upper 50s to lower 60s so moisture was already in place...There was no SFC heating taken place with the clouds and rain around,this held Instbly down to a min see above....However wind shear was off the charts...Winds veering with heights along with speed...This was enough to produce the short lived tornadoes.....Again I'm not sure if I like the term tornadoes for the what I saw in Barron County...More like land spouts and or spin ups...And there were random spin ups..Nevertheless conditions were right for these short lived tornadoes/spin ups....So now you know the real story to what had happen...That is if you didn't already see the NWS page...Which matches up rather well with this write up....
Pictures will follow later tonight or tomorrow night.....(when time allows)

Side note to post below

I really don't like calling these tornadoes..Will explain that tonight...I do like the term spin ups better....

Short lived tornados across Barron County County

When I get home from work later today I will have a very detailed write up on what happen across the area...I was able to see many short lived tornadoes....I would rather not call them that...More like land spouts or one could even call some of the gustnadoes.Either way the ones in Barron County were very weak and very short lived most I see were on the ground for less than 5 seconds or so.I never called any of these is as the NWS has a very good handle on it..In many of the warnings.statements..They stressed very short lived tornadoes possible.Many people were saying it was strange,however there really wasn't nothing strange at all about what happen..I have seen this setup many times in my 25 plus years of storm chasing.Just a low pressure became stronger as it moved through MN and WI....Again a very detailed write on this...With some pictures.....Break down of the tornado warnings...Western Barron County...from 4:15 to 5:00 PM...5:13 to 6:00 PM another tornado warning was issued for Western Barron County..So it was a very busy 2 hours or so for this storm chaser....As I was all over in Eastern Polk,and Western Barron Counties...All the short lived touch downs were in Barron County...Around the Cumberland to Rice Lake areas,along with a few West of Barron....No damage from the ones I saw....

Some space pictures(metors)

Pictures were taken on Wednesday night....Metors are in some of the pictures..Need to click on the pictures for full size...

No updates were needed...

As thought in this mornings forecast no severe thunderstorms formed...Mostly cloudy skies through out the FA kept instby down.Also models did underestimate the drying that has taken hold a few hrs earlier then forecasted which also helped to keep showers and thunderstorms at bay through out the day..Cold front has now passed the FA...Chances of heavy rain have ended...Still may see a shower or two pop up this evening....

Heavy rain

Heavy rainfall hits Northern through central Barron County...As you can see from one our Weather Center's radar..Storm total accumulated precipitation radar views shows any where from 1.00 to as much as 1.50 inches of rain as fallen this early morning.Here at the Weather Center we picked up 1.45 inches of rain so far(see times on radar grab)...More heavy rain fall is in the forecast as a cold front works it's way towards and through the my forecast area through early this evening,some areas could pick up another inch of rainfall...Severe weather is unlikely do to the cloud cover hanging overhead..If we can break out into some sunshine before this late afternoon,this would allow for instby to increase,wind shear is rather strong..So if good SFC heating can get going there would be a slight chance the some thunderstorms could become severe..However as of right now this does look very slim...We will keep an eye on satellite trends,along with SFC OBS....One thing does look like a very good bet would be more heavy rainfall....Temps today will be kept in checked with all the clouds around...Still humid today though....Stay tuned for more updates on severe thunderstorms chances as we head for the late afternoon hrs...

Cool cloud pictures

just 3 pictures of some cool cloud formations...

Burkhardt storm damage pictures

Got to meet Derek today,was a pleasure meeting you Derek...We head out for the Burkhardt area...We found a corn field that for the most part was flatten,however the corn was laying in different directions...We also saw many trees downed and or snapped off,once again they where laying in different directions, (trees from 4"to 12"in dim)....Talk to a few people from the area...The one home owner had his garage blown apart,shingles also missing from parts of his roof...He was telling us they heard sucking sounds and also felt the sucking...They also discovered their little black lap was sucked out of it's kennel...The fence on that kennel was about 4 to 6 feet high...Dog did look still shaken up from the ordeal...From what I have seen and from what the wits have told us looks like a tornado did go through that area...We will know for sure once the NWS does their survey of the area...
Storm damage pictures from the Burkhardt area...1 or 2 mile N/NW of town....in the township of St.Joseph

More pictures will be added to my website sometime today...

Chase log pictures

First off I would like to thank Paul for sitting in for me doing short term updates and nowcasting for us...Tammy and I had a great time out in the field last night...I might have got a possible funnel cloud about 1 mile or so Northwest of Hudson WI..I did here on the scanner LEA was calling it as one...Hard to really tell with the pictures,as the lightning really wasn't working with us...Lot of damage around the Burkhardt area...Hard to tell if it was a rain wrapped tornado or straight line winds,will be going back into that area today to get damage pictures..Also some damage around the Boardman area....

Short term forecast number 4

The Weather Center's Radar is tracking a possible tornado just west of Stillwater.The storm is Moving East...The Weather Center's radar is also tracking other thunderstorms over Chisago County of MN and parts of NW Polk County.Along with SW Burnett County.These storms bear watching also...

Short term updated number 4

Tornado warning now for Central St.Croix County...Dirk and Tammy are by Stillwater looks like the wrost part of the storm will hit them they are dropping South a tad..More in a few

Chaser update

Looks Like our best WI chasers are all over the tornado warned cell...Dirk and Tammy are having a great chase this evening...Good luck you two!

Torndao watch

The tornado watch has been extended to 12 AM Sunday morning..See the SPC page for the info

Tornado Warning

The NWS has issued a tornado warning for the following Counties in WI... Northwest St.Croix County Far Southwest Polk County..

Short term forecast number 3/chasers update

Tornado warning now includes the following Counties of Eastern MN..Anoka,Ransey,and Washington..The Weather Center's radar is still tracking a supercell thunderstorm with a possible tornado.This tornadic thunderstorm should be moving into Stillwater within the next few minutes...
Chaser update...
Dirk and Tammy are just East of Stillwater they are trying to get some lightning pictures before their real fun begins...

Updated tornado watch..

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 2

The Weather Center's radar is still tracking a possible torndao over in MN..Tornado warning now includes Anoka County and Still parts of Hennpin County.This is a very danagerous storm.We will keep tracking it as it moves into WI...
Forecaster/Nowcaster Paul.
Also Dirk and Tammy are getting close to their target area.Stay tuned to see how WI best storm chasers do!!

Chaser update2

Dirk and Tammy are heading for Southern Polk and Northern St.Croix Counties..Then will see where they go from there....Severe thunderstorms are really craking up over and North od the Twin Cities area...
Forecaster/Nowcaster Paul.

Short term forecast number 1

Lets see if I remember how to do this....
At 8:30 pm the Weather Center radar is tracking showers and thunderstorms through out Barron,Burnett,Chippewa,Dunn,Polk,Rusk,Sawyer,and St.Croix Counties.Also The Weather Center's radar is track a possible tornado in MN,Hennepin County Gate to Gate on that cell is rather nice looking...We will watch this cell close to see what may become of it.Just showed up on The Weather Center radar..A thunderstorm just South/Southwest of Cumberland.This cell has the possibility to become strong might ever go severe with the way the near storm cell environment is.
Forecaster/Nowcaster Paul..

chaser update

Dirk and Tammy were on the some what strong thunderstorm that moved through central Barron County,between the towns of Cameron and Chetek,they followed the storm into southwest Rusk County were it for the most part fell apart..They are now heading for ST.Croix County..They may be heading for MN to get on the torn warned cell.Dirk still is not 100% sure on it.
Severe weather threat very well alive through out our forecast area.This is still a dangerous situation.More updates on our best WI Chaser(chasers since now Tammy is Dirk's newest chase partner.
Forecaster/Paul who is sitting in for Dirk while he's having fun.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

HAD ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR RAPID AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE....WAS NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR THE VERY STRONG CAP TO TAKE HOLD OF THE FSCT AREA....LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE EVENING....LOW PRESSURE OVER SD IF FSCTD TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...CAP IS STILL RATHER STRONG OVER PARTS OF MN HOWEVER AS THE CAP WEAKENS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BECOMING SEVERE RATHER FAST....7H TEMPS OVER THERE ARE AROUND THE 12 TO 15C RANGE.HOWEVER THERE AS BEEN SOME WEAKING IN THIS OVER THE LAST HR OR SO...INSTBTY HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH OUT THE AFTERNOON HRS,ALSO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.50 KTS..CAPE AROUND 4500 J/KG TO 5000 J/KG.THIS HAS LEAD TO THE INCREASE THREAT OF TORNADOES THROUGH OUT MOST OF MY FA....THIS COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION TAKEN SHAPE....
DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST THE FA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT....SEE MAP TO WHERE FRONT IS SITTING AT.....MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL WILL BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER LLS IS NOT THAT GREAT FOR A WIDESPREAD TORNADO EVENT....STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH OUT THE OVER NIGHT HRS ONCE AGAIN.....THE MAIN THREAT THEN WILL SWITCH OVER TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS....SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE..STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA,NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS/STATEMENTS OF THIS POSSIBLE DANGEROUS SITUATION..
***I'M OUT OF HERE TO DO SOME STORM CHASING****

TORNADO WATCHES 667 AND 678

CLICK ON MAP FOR LARGER SIZE

TORNADO WATCH

THE SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE AREA UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT...SEE THEIR SITE OR THE NWS SITE FOR MORE INFO....DETAILED FORECAST FORTHCOMING FROM THE WEATHER CENTER..

All kinds of forecast problems to deal with

Forecast discussion will focus around severe thunderstorm chances tonight or the lack of severe thunderstorms...Yesterday's and last night forecast was right on target...No severe thunderstorms took place across my FA....Lots of heavy rain in my Southern areas...While points in my Central and Northern areas only picked up light amounts,while some places got nothing....

Forecast will be a problem today,and tonight...There are so many things that can wrong with regards to severe thunderstorm threat..First off is last night's/early morning MCS which is now over Central and Southwest WI...Also another areas of showers and thunderstorms over in MN...Still another area of showers and thunderstorms showing up across Northwestern,and parts of Western MN...All of these said areas are pushing to the East...Meantime we find a clearing line in Southwest into South Central MN at this HR..Looking at the SFC Analysis charts this is just about where the warm front is sitting...Here is where the problem come up,and come up rather fast.....Will the warm front push into the FA and how far North will it get..Some models keep the front just into my Southern zones...While some models bring it the warm front into my Northern areas by late tonight....Very strong Cap South of the warm front with 700 MB temps around 12C to 14C...SO if said warm front does blast through the FA today..We will locked under a very strong CAP...That would put the stop to any severe thunderstorms for this afternoon into the evening hrs...Another problem could be the cloud cover....Will it clear out in time for primetime SFC to take place.....Today may be one of those days the cloud cover may help with the severe thunderstorms chances...My thinking is showers and thunderstorms should be pushing out of MN into my Central and Northern areas..Clouds should break up by afternoon this will allow for a strong Cap to form holding severe thunderstorms at bay...Thinking for tonight is as the 700 MB level cools the Cap will be breakable...Another round of MCS should be in the cards......Now looking at radar I see more thunderstorms a forming in Western MN rather fast...So thinking above may not play out as forecasted.....I'm going to bank on some clearing around the noon hr....Destabilization will occur rather fast along and North of the warm front...That would be the main areas to see severe thunderstorms...South of the warm front Cap will hold it's own.....Now if severe thunderstorms do get going later this afternoon into this evening,main threat would be damaging winds and large hail..Threat for tornadoes will be confined to MN along the triple point as storms first get going.....Once again some many things can go wrong with this forecast...Nothing is set in stone for today into this evening....Tonight models do agree that another thunderstorm complex will form...The threat from the MCS would be heavy rain once again....So here we go again where will this complex set up....To many questions still...So where ever the MCS setup heavy rainfall will be likely which would bring the chances of flash flooding in the cities and low land area....Temps going to be very tricky today...Just like yesterday we never got out of the 60s for highs...Have to look to see if we broke any cold high temps yesterday.....Anyway where the clouds hang on look for temps to be in the middle to upper 70s maybe an 80 or two..In my Southern areas temps should reach the lower to middle 80s..Sunday does look to be the warmer day...Highs in the middle to upper 80s...I think the 90s will stay South of my FA....As clouds will keep temps in check,along with the higher dewpoints...Temps do cool off into the lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday...This will be short lived as models want to bring in WAA with the return flow...That means the heat and higher dewpoint shall return by midweek......

Severe thunderstorms possible

This morning's computer models are all pointing to the possibility of severe thunderstorms..Thinking is is this does happen it will later this evening into the over night hrs for my FA....As Cap will be rather strong this afternoon...Temps today shall remain right around 70 with a chance of showers and storms...One reason I feel severe weather will be out of the question for today..As I feel we won't have enough sunshine to get SFC heating going...Warm front pushes to the North of EAU by tomorrow morning..This will do two thing..One will keep the highest temps in my far Southern areas...90s in them areas...Around the lower to middle 80s just North of the warm front..Thunderstorms should be ongoing Sat morning from Friday night's MCS...This will play heck on the chances of severe thunderstorms in my FA....However if showers and storms can clear out before prime time this would allow for rather strong SFC heating to take place...If it does happen strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible later in the afternoon into the over night hours...Thinking is best chance for tornadoes would be over in MN as storms fire(if they do) As a rather strong cap around 12c holds through much of the day...Back to my FA if storms fire in MN they should become linear rather fast..This would set my FA up for damaging straight line wind event along with some large hail events possible..Storms should form into another cluster of MCS Sat night...This would keep the areas of damaging winds alive...Sunday looks to be warmer in my Central and Northern areas..Middle to upper 80s..Will keep lower 90s alive in my Southern areas...Once again there is a chance at severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon hours...Once again this will depend on if the clouds from Sat night's MCS can clear out before prime time heating hours....If this does happen there should be a strong cap forming once again...Storms that are able to break the cap shall become severe rather fast along and ahead of a cold front...Forcing/lift looks to rather good Sunday after the 6- 7 PM hour...Severe thunderstorm treat would be damaging winds once again...With areas of large hail...Can't rule out a tornado or two through out my FA..Thinking is the tornado treat would by long the Triple point....Thinking is that should set up in my Southern FA....There is still a few questions that needed to be worked out for this weekend....Will have a more of detailed forecasted this evening with in depth analysis......As of right now to many things still can go wrong with this setup...Nevertheless the possibility of severe thunderstorms is there...Again will depend on cloud cover and thew CAP...Most other dynamics are in place....

Forecast

Forecast problems over the next few days...Temps,along with the severe thunderstorm possibility...

First of lets talk about the temps....

Temps today will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday...Should see highs around the 75 to 80 degree mark...Which is still running below norms for this time of year....Lows tonight fall back down into the lower to middle 50s across my FA.....Temps on Friday will for the most part stay in the 60s...Middle to upper 60s seem plausible will have more on that later...This weekend temps don't warm up as high as I have been hearing...No big heat wave in sight this weekend,however Sunday does look to be the warmest day with highs into the middle 80s....Meantime highs on Saturday hold in the upper 70s to around 80...Lows this weekend shall be warm and humid middle to upper 60s...

Lets talk about the possibility of severe thunderstorms or should I say lack of severe thunderstorms....

Showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast for Thursday night as MCS form...One area looks to be right through the FA,while the other is way to our South...Some of the thunderstorms tonight could produce rainfall from 0.25 to as much as 0.50..Friday Showers and thunderstorms will still be hanging around the area as a frontal boundary tries to push Northwards....Thinking is with all the showers and storms around if MCS do form....Even if they don't with all the clouds around this shall keep the severe thunderstorm threat at bay...SPC does have my FA under a slight risk of severe storms...Not buying into this ATTM...Now Friday as the nocturnal LLJ increases may see some stronger thunderstorms through out the FA,maybe an ISO severe storm..Chances rather low...Saturday still not to thrilled about severe thunderstorms though there may be on or two severe thunderstorms through out my FA...To early to pinpoint where that may happen....Will depend on how far the warm front moves North....Still a lot of questions....Also cloud cover will keep the severe weather threat in check....Sunday into Sunday evening may be out best chance at seeing severe thunderstorms as a cold front moves towards and through the area...However chances still look rather low....So AM not buying in the SPC and the NWS thinking just yet....

More showers and thunderstorms

More much needed rain fell last night/early this morning as showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area...Here at the office I picked up 0.97" Just to my North 1.00" fell...Once again no severe thunderstorms...

24 hour rainfall map

Taken off of storm Lab radar program...Here at the office I picked up 2.89" of rain within the last 24 hrs....Radar map shows that once again Northern Barron County was the champs in the rainfall dept...This area really does need the rain as this area has been the hardest hit by the severe drought conditions...Click on map to see full size...

Recap of July

Recap for July 2009....
Most of this discussion is for Barron County only...Drought conditions and forecast will be for my entire forecast area...July was way below normal in the temp dept...No surprise there,as this summer temps have been way below normal...We had set some cold record highs in July...There was 7 thunderstorm days in July.Days that had thunderstorms are as follows...July 4 ,9,10,21,24,25,and 30...Last year in July we had 7 thunderstorm days...So a tie...For the most part July was a very dry month....The 21,24,25,and the 30 did bring in some very much needed rainfall to the area...Still not enough to break the severe drought we are in but sure did help out....Lets talk about the severe drought conditions...The NIDID is still forecasting the drought to be ongoing through October with some improvement..So with any luck we will move from a severe drought to a Mod drought by time we reach October...So what does August hold for us.....We shall find out soon enough...However lets check out the temps forecast from 08/01 through 08/03...Upper level ridging still hold on strong out West,while troughing through out the Eastern parts of the Country...This has been the case for most of this summer thus far...So what does this mean for Barron County,and the rest of my FA....Colder than normal temps are forecasted...As far as rainfall goes....This time frame will bring us a chance at showers today Sat 08/01...Nothing to get hype about though..Sunday we see another shot at showers and thunderstorms as a another cold front works into the area by afternoon...Lest look through the time frame from Aug 4 through Aug 8...
First out of the gates will be the temps.....Looks like the below normal temps will prevail...However still will see more of chance to see near normal temps..So going to run with slightly to near normal temps through this frame...This is the avg through this period...As we may very well see some days with above normal temps...Overall the forecast is calling for slightly to near normal temps...Second on the line is the rainfall dept...Looks like we will have normal to slightly above rainfall through this period...One can only hope......