Saturday, August 8, 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST


HAD ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR RAPID AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE....WAS NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR THE VERY STRONG CAP TO TAKE HOLD OF THE FSCT AREA....LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE EVENING....LOW PRESSURE OVER SD IF FSCTD TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...CAP IS STILL RATHER STRONG OVER PARTS OF MN HOWEVER AS THE CAP WEAKENS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BECOMING SEVERE RATHER FAST....7H TEMPS OVER THERE ARE AROUND THE 12 TO 15C RANGE.HOWEVER THERE AS BEEN SOME WEAKING IN THIS OVER THE LAST HR OR SO...INSTBTY HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH OUT THE AFTERNOON HRS,ALSO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.50 KTS..CAPE AROUND 4500 J/KG TO 5000 J/KG.THIS HAS LEAD TO THE INCREASE THREAT OF TORNADOES THROUGH OUT MOST OF MY FA....THIS COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION TAKEN SHAPE....
DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST THE FA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT....SEE MAP TO WHERE FRONT IS SITTING AT.....MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL WILL BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER LLS IS NOT THAT GREAT FOR A WIDESPREAD TORNADO EVENT....STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH OUT THE OVER NIGHT HRS ONCE AGAIN.....THE MAIN THREAT THEN WILL SWITCH OVER TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS....SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE..STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA,NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS/STATEMENTS OF THIS POSSIBLE DANGEROUS SITUATION..
***I'M OUT OF HERE TO DO SOME STORM CHASING****