Friday, August 7, 2009

Severe thunderstorms possible

This morning's computer models are all pointing to the possibility of severe thunderstorms..Thinking is is this does happen it will later this evening into the over night hrs for my FA....As Cap will be rather strong this afternoon...Temps today shall remain right around 70 with a chance of showers and storms...One reason I feel severe weather will be out of the question for today..As I feel we won't have enough sunshine to get SFC heating going...Warm front pushes to the North of EAU by tomorrow morning..This will do two thing..One will keep the highest temps in my far Southern areas...90s in them areas...Around the lower to middle 80s just North of the warm front..Thunderstorms should be ongoing Sat morning from Friday night's MCS...This will play heck on the chances of severe thunderstorms in my FA....However if showers and storms can clear out before prime time this would allow for rather strong SFC heating to take place...If it does happen strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible later in the afternoon into the over night hours...Thinking is best chance for tornadoes would be over in MN as storms fire(if they do) As a rather strong cap around 12c holds through much of the day...Back to my FA if storms fire in MN they should become linear rather fast..This would set my FA up for damaging straight line wind event along with some large hail events possible..Storms should form into another cluster of MCS Sat night...This would keep the areas of damaging winds alive...Sunday looks to be warmer in my Central and Northern areas..Middle to upper 80s..Will keep lower 90s alive in my Southern areas...Once again there is a chance at severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon hours...Once again this will depend on if the clouds from Sat night's MCS can clear out before prime time heating hours....If this does happen there should be a strong cap forming once again...Storms that are able to break the cap shall become severe rather fast along and ahead of a cold front...Forcing/lift looks to rather good Sunday after the 6- 7 PM hour...Severe thunderstorm treat would be damaging winds once again...With areas of large hail...Can't rule out a tornado or two through out my FA..Thinking is the tornado treat would by long the Triple point....Thinking is that should set up in my Southern FA....There is still a few questions that needed to be worked out for this weekend....Will have a more of detailed forecasted this evening with in depth analysis......As of right now to many things still can go wrong with this setup...Nevertheless the possibility of severe thunderstorms is there...Again will depend on cloud cover and thew CAP...Most other dynamics are in place....